{
  "generatedAt": "2026-10-22T16:04:11Z",
  "disclaimer": "Analysis and opinion, not investment advice.",
  "kind": "person",
  "slug": "vitaliy-katsenelson",
  "name": "Vitaliy Katsenelson",
  "role": null,
  "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/vitaliy-katsenelson/",
  "api": "https://deepstack.ltd/api/v1/entities/people/vitaliy-katsenelson.json",
  "summary": "Vitaliy Katsenelson is named in 4 Parts of The Buildout, most recently Part 15: Oil Is the Headline. The Real Yield Is the Bill.. Argued in Part 3 (1999 capex plus 2008 credit), Part 7 (Debt: 99% of GDP, up from 35%).",
  "parts": [
    {
      "part": 3,
      "headline": "The Machines Will Work. The Debt Might Not.",
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-debt-behind-the-machines/"
    },
    {
      "part": 7,
      "headline": "The Fed Hiked. The Long End Still Climbed.",
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-fed-hiked-the-long-end-kept-climbing/"
    },
    {
      "part": 10,
      "headline": "The Bubble Is in the Denominator",
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-bubble-is-in-the-denominator/"
    },
    {
      "part": 15,
      "headline": "Oil Is the Headline. The Real Yield Is the Bill.",
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/oil-is-the-headline-the-real-yield-is-the-bill/"
    }
  ],
  "numbers": [],
  "mentions": [
    {
      "part": 3,
      "section": "Debt is the product",
      "excerpt": "Vitaliy Katsenelson, who lived through the first one, describes today’s market as “1999 capex plus 2008 credit”.",
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-debt-behind-the-machines/"
    },
    {
      "part": 10,
      "section": "The bill raises the rate",
      "excerpt": "Vitaliy Katsenelson put the fiscal version bluntly: “I personally would not buy a 10-year Treasury even at 6%”.",
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-bubble-is-in-the-denominator/"
    },
    {
      "part": 15,
      "section": "The bill comes as a real yield",
      "excerpt": "Howell's August 14 projection puts a 5.5% yield beside a market multiple below 20 times, about 10% lower, and Vitaliy Katsenelson named the likely casualties on September 10: expensive stocks whose cash flows lie far in the future.",
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/oil-is-the-headline-the-real-yield-is-the-bill/"
    }
  ],
  "sides": [
    {
      "part": 3,
      "question": null,
      "side": "capex-and-credit",
      "sideLabel": "1999 capex plus 2008 credit",
      "claim": "AI profitability is elusive while open-source and Chinese models deliver comparable results at a fraction of the cost, so data-center pricing faces a race to the bottom exactly as fiber optics did after 1999; then the bankruptcies reveal who was…",
      "date": "2026-08-06",
      "url": "https://vitaliy.substack.com/p/todays-market-1999-capex-2008-credit",
      "linkVerified": true,
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-debt-behind-the-machines/",
      "sidesUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/sides/the-debt-behind-the-machines/"
    },
    {
      "part": 7,
      "question": null,
      "side": "debt",
      "sideLabel": "Debt: 99% of GDP, up from 35%",
      "claim": "Bond investors are rejecting the government-set price for Treasuries because of large, unaddressed budget deficits that may grow rather than shrink over the next 10 years, and because budget deficits imply inflation; Vitaliy Katsenelson says they…",
      "date": "2026-09-10",
      "url": "https://vitaliy.substack.com/p/narrative-change-part-1",
      "linkVerified": true,
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-fed-hiked-the-long-end-kept-climbing/",
      "sidesUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/sides/the-fed-hiked-the-long-end-kept-climbing/"
    },
    {
      "part": 7,
      "question": null,
      "side": "debt",
      "sideLabel": "Debt: 99% of GDP, up from 35%",
      "claim": "In mid-August 2026 the 30-year Treasury yield reached its highest level in 19 years, above 5.3% (last seen in 2007), and the 10-year yield hit 4.75%; these are important because 30-year mortgage rates are set from them and about two-thirds of US…",
      "date": "2026-09-10",
      "url": "https://vitaliy.substack.com/p/narrative-change-part-1",
      "linkVerified": true,
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/stories/the-fed-hiked-the-long-end-kept-climbing/",
      "sidesUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/sides/the-fed-hiked-the-long-end-kept-climbing/"
    }
  ],
  "coverage": {
    "creators": 2,
    "claims": 2967,
    "texts": 472,
    "asOf": "2026-10-22"
  },
  "lastUpdated": "2026-10-22"
}