{
  "generatedAt": "2026-10-22T18:36:31Z",
  "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/china-domestic-ai-accelerator-share/",
  "disclaimer": "Analysis and opinion, not investment advice.",
  "id": "china-domestic-ai-accelerator-share",
  "number": 46,
  "question": "Will Chinese-made AI chips dominate new accelerator capacity in mainland China by 2027?",
  "dek": "Export limits on advanced US chips and Beijing's push for homegrown silicon may be steering China onto its own compute stack, sidelining foreign accelerator makers.",
  "family": "T14",
  "subthesis": "T14.01",
  "sector": "AI.SEMI",
  "subsectors": [
    "AI.SEMI.GPU",
    "AI.SEMI.ASIC",
    "AI.SEMI.FOUNDRY",
    "AI.MODEL.FRONTIER"
  ],
  "relatedParts": [
    15
  ],
  "approvedAt": "2026-10-22T01:56:07Z",
  "sectorName": "Semiconductors & Compute Silicon",
  "api": "https://deepstack.ltd/api/v1/theses/china-domestic-ai-accelerator-share.json",
  "sides": [
    {
      "id": "yes",
      "label": "US and China split into two AI markets",
      "summary": "Export controls on advanced GPUs and state pressure to buy domestic chips succeed in redirecting China's build-out toward local designers like Huawei, Cambricon, Biren, and MetaX. Chinese companies naturally prefer domestic GPUs when foreign supply is restricted, and domestic fabs and chip designers absorb most new demand as policy barriers widen the gap. Foreign accelerators hold only marginal share of new capacity as a result.",
      "voices": [
        {
          "name": "Olivia Moore",
          "entity": null,
          "claim": "Western sanctions restricted access to US AI tools in Russia since 2022, and China requires local hosting and censorship compliance. These policy barriers created gaps that local products like Yandex's Alice, Sber's GigaChat, and China's Doubao and…",
          "date": "2026-03-09",
          "url": "https://www.a16z.news/p/top-100-gen-ai-consumer-apps-march"
        },
        {
          "name": "Prof G Markets",
          "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/prof-g-markets/",
          "claim": "Export ban driving domestic alternatives",
          "date": "2025-04-21",
          "url": "https://www.profgmedia.com/p/everyone-s-hedging-with-gold-should-you"
        },
        {
          "name": "Timothy B Lee",
          "entity": null,
          "claim": "When the U.S. restricts access to latest NVIDIA GPUs, China cannot simply wait. Chinese companies invest in heterogeneous hardware training systems, improve domestic GPU production, and Chinese companies naturally prefer domestic GPUs when foreign…",
          "date": "2025-01-14",
          "url": "https://www.understandingai.org/p/jon-askonas-on-ai-policy-in-the-trump"
        },
        {
          "name": "Michael Spencer",
          "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/michael-spencer/",
          "claim": "Nations seeking to gain an upper hand in military AI technology invest heavily to control critical inputs like semiconductors and data flows. This competition creates mutual unease and incentivizes each nation to reduce reliance on others for…",
          "date": "2023-05-31",
          "url": "https://www.ai-supremacy.com/p/ais-world-order-national-security"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "no",
      "label": "The case against it",
      "summary": "Despite restrictions, a US chipmaker finds a way to keep selling compliant chips into China at meaningful scale, or major Chinese cloud firms say they still rely mainly on US-designed accelerators. Export rules could also loosen enough to allow broad licensing of current-generation GPUs into China. Any of these would mean foreign accelerators keep a real foothold rather than being pushed to the margins of China's buildout.",
      "voices": [
        {
          "name": "Steel Team",
          "entity": null,
          "claim": "Once the manufacturing knowledge behind N+2 and N+3 is transferred to HLMC/Hua Hong and the same learning feeds accelerator programs, no single entity remains the bottleneck, so an entity-list approach aimed at SMIC alone stops controlling the…",
          "date": "2026-06-14",
          "url": "https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/steel-smic-n3-teardown"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "tests": [
    {
      "id": "th046-t01",
      "part": null,
      "thesis": 46,
      "slug": "china-domestic-ai-accelerator-share",
      "when": "November 18, 2026",
      "whenLabel": "Nov 18, 2026",
      "date": "2026-11-18",
      "precision": "day",
      "event": "NVIDIA, revenue growth from a year earlier, quarter ended October 25, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 85%.",
      "status": "pending",
      "resultId": null,
      "sameAs": null,
      "stage": "pre",
      "callExpects": "yes",
      "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)",
      "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T03:45:00Z",
      "callProbability": 68,
      "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T03:45:00Z",
      "callProbabilityHistory": [],
      "source": {
        "kind": "thesis",
        "ref": "tests[0].date",
        "url": null
      },
      "resolver": {
        "kind": "earnings",
        "symbol": "NVDA",
        "rule": "Compare the revenue that Nvidia reports for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 with the quarter ended October 26, 2025, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if growth is at or above 85.0%; no if it is below 85.0%.",
        "question": "Did the revenue of Nvidia for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 grow at or above 85.0% from the quarter ended October 26, 2025?",
        "source": {
          "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Nvidia (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)",
          "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001045810.json"
        },
        "ambiguity": "If Nvidia has not filed by December 11, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.",
        "specState": "approved",
        "specVersion": 1,
        "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22",
        "specHistory": [
          {
            "version": 1,
            "date": "2026-10-22",
            "reason": "First specification.",
            "by": "Desk Editor (level B)"
          }
        ],
        "callExpects": "yes",
        "format": "ladder",
        "group": "th046-nvda-revenue-yoy",
        "threshold": 85,
        "direction": "above",
        "unit": "%",
        "think": {
          "baseRate": "NVIDIA's revenue growth from a year earlier was 105.9% for the quarter ended July 26, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.",
          "outsideView": "The year-earlier quarter is not on the same concept in the filings, so the rungs sit on the last print alone.",
          "wouldChange": "The results-calendar consensus for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 implies 90.9%, and the middle rung is centred there."
        }
      },
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th046-t01",
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/china-domestic-ai-accelerator-share/#tests",
      "resultUrl": null,
      "machines": [
        {
          "model": "claude-opus-5",
          "p": 13,
          "at": "2026-10-22T03:34:49Z"
        },
        {
          "model": "deepseek-reasoner",
          "p": 35,
          "at": "2026-10-22T03:35:26Z"
        }
      ],
      "readers": null
    },
    {
      "id": "th046-t02",
      "part": null,
      "thesis": 46,
      "slug": "china-domestic-ai-accelerator-share",
      "when": "November 18, 2026",
      "whenLabel": "Nov 18, 2026",
      "date": "2026-11-18",
      "precision": "day",
      "event": "NVIDIA, revenue growth from a year earlier, quarter ended October 25, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 92%.",
      "status": "pending",
      "resultId": null,
      "sameAs": null,
      "stage": "pre",
      "callExpects": "no",
      "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)",
      "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T03:45:00Z",
      "callProbability": 45,
      "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T03:45:00Z",
      "callProbabilityHistory": [],
      "source": {
        "kind": "thesis",
        "ref": "tests[1].date",
        "url": null
      },
      "resolver": {
        "kind": "earnings",
        "symbol": "NVDA",
        "rule": "Compare the revenue that Nvidia reports for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 with the quarter ended October 26, 2025, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if growth is at or above 92.0%; no if it is below 92.0%.",
        "question": "Did the revenue of Nvidia for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 grow at or above 92.0% from the quarter ended October 26, 2025?",
        "source": {
          "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Nvidia (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)",
          "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001045810.json"
        },
        "ambiguity": "If Nvidia has not filed by December 11, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.",
        "specState": "approved",
        "specVersion": 1,
        "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22",
        "specHistory": [
          {
            "version": 1,
            "date": "2026-10-22",
            "reason": "First specification.",
            "by": "Desk Editor (level B)"
          }
        ],
        "callExpects": "no",
        "format": "ladder",
        "group": "th046-nvda-revenue-yoy",
        "threshold": 92,
        "direction": "above",
        "unit": "%",
        "think": {
          "baseRate": "NVIDIA's revenue growth from a year earlier was 105.9% for the quarter ended July 26, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.",
          "outsideView": "The year-earlier quarter is not on the same concept in the filings, so the rungs sit on the last print alone.",
          "wouldChange": "The results-calendar consensus for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 implies 90.9%, and the middle rung is centred there."
        }
      },
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th046-t02",
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/china-domestic-ai-accelerator-share/#tests",
      "resultUrl": null,
      "machines": [
        {
          "model": "claude-opus-5",
          "p": 5,
          "at": "2026-10-22T03:35:30Z"
        },
        {
          "model": "deepseek-reasoner",
          "p": 7,
          "at": "2026-10-22T03:35:45Z"
        }
      ],
      "readers": null
    },
    {
      "id": "th046-t03",
      "part": null,
      "thesis": 46,
      "slug": "china-domestic-ai-accelerator-share",
      "when": "November 18, 2026",
      "whenLabel": "Nov 18, 2026",
      "date": "2026-11-18",
      "precision": "day",
      "event": "NVIDIA, revenue growth from a year earlier, quarter ended October 25, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 99%.",
      "status": "pending",
      "resultId": null,
      "sameAs": null,
      "stage": "pre",
      "callExpects": "no",
      "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)",
      "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T03:45:00Z",
      "callProbability": 25,
      "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T03:45:00Z",
      "callProbabilityHistory": [],
      "source": {
        "kind": "thesis",
        "ref": "tests[2].date",
        "url": null
      },
      "resolver": {
        "kind": "earnings",
        "symbol": "NVDA",
        "rule": "Compare the revenue that Nvidia reports for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 with the quarter ended October 26, 2025, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if growth is at or above 99.0%; no if it is below 99.0%.",
        "question": "Did the revenue of Nvidia for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 grow at or above 99.0% from the quarter ended October 26, 2025?",
        "source": {
          "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Nvidia (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)",
          "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001045810.json"
        },
        "ambiguity": "If Nvidia has not filed by December 11, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.",
        "specState": "approved",
        "specVersion": 1,
        "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22",
        "specHistory": [
          {
            "version": 1,
            "date": "2026-10-22",
            "reason": "First specification.",
            "by": "Desk Editor (level B)"
          }
        ],
        "callExpects": "no",
        "format": "ladder",
        "group": "th046-nvda-revenue-yoy",
        "threshold": 99,
        "direction": "above",
        "unit": "%",
        "think": {
          "baseRate": "NVIDIA's revenue growth from a year earlier was 105.9% for the quarter ended July 26, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.",
          "outsideView": "The year-earlier quarter is not on the same concept in the filings, so the rungs sit on the last print alone.",
          "wouldChange": "The results-calendar consensus for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 implies 90.9%, and the middle rung is centred there."
        }
      },
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th046-t03",
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/china-domestic-ai-accelerator-share/#tests",
      "resultUrl": null,
      "machines": [
        {
          "model": "claude-opus-5",
          "p": 3,
          "at": "2026-10-22T03:35:49Z"
        },
        {
          "model": "deepseek-reasoner",
          "p": 2,
          "at": "2026-10-22T03:35:55Z"
        }
      ],
      "readers": null
    },
    {
      "id": "th046-t04",
      "part": null,
      "thesis": 46,
      "slug": "china-domestic-ai-accelerator-share",
      "when": "November 10, 2026",
      "whenLabel": "Nov 10, 2026",
      "date": "2026-11-10",
      "precision": "day",
      "event": "TSMC, monthly revenue growth from a year earlier, October 2026: whether it comes in at or above 48%.",
      "status": "pending",
      "resultId": null,
      "sameAs": null,
      "stage": "pre",
      "callExpects": "yes",
      "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)",
      "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T03:45:00Z",
      "callProbability": 70,
      "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T03:45:00Z",
      "callProbabilityHistory": [],
      "source": {
        "kind": "thesis",
        "ref": "tests[3].date",
        "url": null
      },
      "resolver": {
        "kind": "manual",
        "rule": "Read TSMC's (2330) revenue for October 2026 in the Taiwan Stock Exchange's monthly revenue table and compare it with October 2025 in the same table. The answer is yes if revenue is up at or above 48.0%; no if it is below 48.0%.",
        "question": "Did TSMC's revenue for October 2026 grow at or above 48.0% from October 2025?",
        "source": {
          "label": "Taiwan Stock Exchange OpenAPI, monthly revenue of listed companies (t187ap05_L)",
          "url": "https://openapi.twse.com.tw/v1/opendata/t187ap05_L"
        },
        "ambiguity": "If the table does not carry October 2026 by November 25, 2026, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; a later correction of the month does not change the reading.",
        "specState": "approved",
        "specVersion": 1,
        "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22",
        "specHistory": [
          {
            "version": 1,
            "date": "2026-10-22",
            "reason": "First specification.",
            "by": "Desk Editor (level B)"
          }
        ],
        "callExpects": "yes",
        "format": "ladder",
        "group": "th046-tsm-revenue-yoy",
        "threshold": 48,
        "direction": "above",
        "unit": "%",
        "think": {
          "baseRate": "TSMC's revenue for September 2026 was 54.6% above a year earlier, by the exchange's monthly table.",
          "outsideView": "A single month moves with wafer shipment timing, so one month can run well above or below the quarter's pace.",
          "wouldChange": "TSMC's own guidance for the quarter, given at its results, would move the number."
        }
      },
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th046-t04",
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/china-domestic-ai-accelerator-share/#tests",
      "resultUrl": null,
      "machines": [
        {
          "model": "claude-opus-5",
          "p": 26,
          "at": "2026-10-22T03:35:59Z"
        },
        {
          "model": "deepseek-reasoner",
          "p": 55,
          "at": "2026-10-22T03:36:22Z"
        }
      ],
      "readers": null
    },
    {
      "id": "th046-t05",
      "part": null,
      "thesis": 46,
      "slug": "china-domestic-ai-accelerator-share",
      "when": "November 10, 2026",
      "whenLabel": "Nov 10, 2026",
      "date": "2026-11-10",
      "precision": "day",
      "event": "TSMC, monthly revenue growth from a year earlier, October 2026: whether it comes in at or above 54%.",
      "status": "pending",
      "resultId": null,
      "sameAs": null,
      "stage": "pre",
      "callExpects": "either",
      "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)",
      "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T03:45:00Z",
      "callProbability": 47,
      "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T03:45:00Z",
      "callProbabilityHistory": [],
      "source": {
        "kind": "thesis",
        "ref": "tests[4].date",
        "url": null
      },
      "resolver": {
        "kind": "manual",
        "rule": "Read TSMC's (2330) revenue for October 2026 in the Taiwan Stock Exchange's monthly revenue table and compare it with October 2025 in the same table. The answer is yes if revenue is up at or above 54.0%; no if it is below 54.0%.",
        "question": "Did TSMC's revenue for October 2026 grow at or above 54.0% from October 2025?",
        "source": {
          "label": "Taiwan Stock Exchange OpenAPI, monthly revenue of listed companies (t187ap05_L)",
          "url": "https://openapi.twse.com.tw/v1/opendata/t187ap05_L"
        },
        "ambiguity": "If the table does not carry October 2026 by November 25, 2026, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; a later correction of the month does not change the reading.",
        "specState": "approved",
        "specVersion": 1,
        "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22",
        "specHistory": [
          {
            "version": 1,
            "date": "2026-10-22",
            "reason": "First specification.",
            "by": "Desk Editor (level B)"
          }
        ],
        "callExpects": "either",
        "format": "ladder",
        "group": "th046-tsm-revenue-yoy",
        "threshold": 54,
        "direction": "above",
        "unit": "%",
        "think": {
          "baseRate": "TSMC's revenue for September 2026 was 54.6% above a year earlier, by the exchange's monthly table.",
          "outsideView": "A single month moves with wafer shipment timing, so one month can run well above or below the quarter's pace.",
          "wouldChange": "TSMC's own guidance for the quarter, given at its results, would move the number."
        }
      },
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th046-t05",
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/china-domestic-ai-accelerator-share/#tests",
      "resultUrl": null,
      "machines": [
        {
          "model": "claude-opus-5",
          "p": 11,
          "at": "2026-10-22T03:36:26Z"
        },
        {
          "model": "deepseek-reasoner",
          "p": 9,
          "at": "2026-10-22T03:36:40Z"
        }
      ],
      "readers": null
    },
    {
      "id": "th046-t06",
      "part": null,
      "thesis": 46,
      "slug": "china-domestic-ai-accelerator-share",
      "when": "November 10, 2026",
      "whenLabel": "Nov 10, 2026",
      "date": "2026-11-10",
      "precision": "day",
      "event": "TSMC, monthly revenue growth from a year earlier, October 2026: whether it comes in at or above 60%.",
      "status": "pending",
      "resultId": null,
      "sameAs": null,
      "stage": "pre",
      "callExpects": "no",
      "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)",
      "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T03:45:00Z",
      "callProbability": 26,
      "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T03:45:00Z",
      "callProbabilityHistory": [],
      "source": {
        "kind": "thesis",
        "ref": "tests[5].date",
        "url": null
      },
      "resolver": {
        "kind": "manual",
        "rule": "Read TSMC's (2330) revenue for October 2026 in the Taiwan Stock Exchange's monthly revenue table and compare it with October 2025 in the same table. The answer is yes if revenue is up at or above 60.0%; no if it is below 60.0%.",
        "question": "Did TSMC's revenue for October 2026 grow at or above 60.0% from October 2025?",
        "source": {
          "label": "Taiwan Stock Exchange OpenAPI, monthly revenue of listed companies (t187ap05_L)",
          "url": "https://openapi.twse.com.tw/v1/opendata/t187ap05_L"
        },
        "ambiguity": "If the table does not carry October 2026 by November 25, 2026, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; a later correction of the month does not change the reading.",
        "specState": "approved",
        "specVersion": 1,
        "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22",
        "specHistory": [
          {
            "version": 1,
            "date": "2026-10-22",
            "reason": "First specification.",
            "by": "Desk Editor (level B)"
          }
        ],
        "callExpects": "no",
        "format": "ladder",
        "group": "th046-tsm-revenue-yoy",
        "threshold": 60,
        "direction": "above",
        "unit": "%",
        "think": {
          "baseRate": "TSMC's revenue for September 2026 was 54.6% above a year earlier, by the exchange's monthly table.",
          "outsideView": "A single month moves with wafer shipment timing, so one month can run well above or below the quarter's pace.",
          "wouldChange": "TSMC's own guidance for the quarter, given at its results, would move the number."
        }
      },
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th046-t06",
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/china-domestic-ai-accelerator-share/#tests",
      "resultUrl": null,
      "machines": [
        {
          "model": "claude-opus-5",
          "p": 5,
          "at": "2026-10-22T03:36:45Z"
        },
        {
          "model": "deepseek-reasoner",
          "p": 7,
          "at": "2026-10-22T03:36:55Z"
        }
      ],
      "readers": null
    }
  ]
}