{ "generatedAt": "2026-10-22T18:36:31Z", "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/elastic-inference-shows-up-in-power-draw/", "disclaimer": "Analysis and opinion, not investment advice.", "id": "elastic-inference-shows-up-in-power-draw", "number": 92, "question": "Will US data center electricity consumption, as reported by EIA, grow at least 15% year-over-year in the most recent full-year or twelve-month figure published before 2027-12-31?", "dek": "Elastic inference demand translates into physical compute expansion, so data center electricity consumption keeps growing double-digit percentages despite per-token cost declines.", "family": "T08", "subthesis": "T08.03", "sector": "AI.MODEL", "subsectors": [ "AI.MODEL.ECON", "AI.CLOUD.INFER", "AI.SEMI.GPU" ], "relatedParts": [ 5, 12 ], "approvedAt": "2026-10-22T05:42:55Z", "sectorName": "Foundation Models & AI Intelligence", "api": "https://deepstack.ltd/api/v1/theses/elastic-inference-shows-up-in-power-draw.json", "sides": [ { "id": "yes", "label": "Inference demand is price-elastic", "summary": "Cheaper inference unlocks agentic workloads consuming 15-100x more compute per task, driving utilization of deployed accelerators toward saturation. Total electricity drawn by US data centers rises faster than efficiency gains reduce energy per token.", "voices": [ { "name": "Invest in Assets", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/invest-in-assets/", "claim": "Cheaper inference unlocks use cases that were previously uneconomical, and the computational intensity of agent workloads multiplies demand even as the price per token falls, expanding the total addressable market and maintaining or growing revenue…", "date": "2026-09-05", "url": "https://www.investinassets.net/p/nvidia-earnings-breakdown" }, { "name": "Arctan Research", "entity": null, "claim": "When an input gets cheaper, demand can expand enough that total outlay on the input rises; applied to AI, cheaper models would speed adoption and lift chip demand, provided the leading chip designer keeps its relative advantage. Because the effect…", "date": "2025-02-07", "url": "https://emecon.substack.com/p/o-paradoxo-deepseek" }, { "name": "Kevin Gargate Osorio", "entity": null, "claim": "When AI becomes cheaper to develop and deploy, more users and companies adopt it, increasing overall infrastructure demand rather than reducing it, following Jevons' paradox.", "date": "2025-01-31", "url": "https://artificialcorner.com/p/has-deepseek-burst-the-ai-bubble" }, { "name": "Alex Dc", "entity": null, "claim": "As AI technology becomes more accessible and cheaper to run, adoption accelerates across more users and applications, multiplying the total resource consumption even as per-unit costs fall, preserving and expanding the market for chip suppliers…", "date": "2025-01-28", "url": "https://aimafia.substack.com/p/la-gran-mentira-china-deepseek-y" }, { "name": "Timothy B Lee", "entity": null, "claim": "When the cost of individual computation falls while quality improves with more computation, users increase token generation to solve problems better. This happened historically with computing power, demand rose as costs fell, and should repeat with…", "date": "2025-01-28", "url": "https://www.understandingai.org/p/i-dont-believe-deepseek-crashed-nvidias" }, { "name": "Kris", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/kris/", "claim": "When technology makes GPU-based AI more efficient and cheaper, adoption expands to new applications and users previously unable to afford it, partially offsetting the per-unit efficiency gain and driving higher absolute demand for chips despite…", "date": "2025-01-28", "url": "https://www.potentialmultibaggers.com/p/deepseeks-impact-on-american-tech" } ] }, { "id": "no", "label": "The case against it", "summary": "Market preference shifting from high-cost to lower-cost token models, so silicon Data Token Cost Index declines while overall AI spending remains stable or increases. It would show first if EIA-reported data center load growth falls below 15% YoY while token prices continue to fall.", "voices": [ { "name": "Moses Sternstein", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/moses-sternstein/", "claim": "If demand for lower-cost tokens increases more rapidly than demand for high-cost tokens, the token-spend intensity index falls as a mathematical consequence, even though total token consumption and spending continue growing. This would occur as…", "date": "2026-07-31", "url": "https://www.a16z.news/p/charts-of-the-week-moar-machines" } ] } ], "tests": [ { "id": "th092-t01", "part": null, "thesis": 92, "slug": "elastic-inference-shows-up-in-power-draw", "when": "October 29, 2026", "whenLabel": "Oct 29, 2026", "date": "2026-10-29", "precision": "day", "event": "Amazon, revenue growth from a year earlier, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 12%.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "yes", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbability": 73, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[0].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "earnings", "symbol": "AMZN", "rule": "Compare the revenue that Amazon reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 with the quarter ended September 30, 2025, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if growth is at or above 12.0%; no if it is below 12.0%.", "question": "Did the revenue of Amazon for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 grow at or above 12.0% from the quarter ended September 30, 2025?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Amazon (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)", "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001018724.json" }, "ambiguity": "If Amazon has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level B)" } ], "callExpects": "yes", "format": "ladder", "group": "th092-amzn-revenue-yoy", "threshold": 12, "direction": "above", "unit": "%", "think": { "baseRate": "Amazon's revenue growth from a year earlier was 19.6% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.", "outsideView": "The year-earlier quarter is not on the same concept in the filings, so the rungs sit on the last print alone.", "wouldChange": "The results-calendar consensus for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 implies 12.2%, and the middle rung is centred there." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th092-t01", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/elastic-inference-shows-up-in-power-draw/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 54, "at": "2026-10-22T07:11:32Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 63, "at": "2026-10-22T07:11:48Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th092-t02", "part": null, "thesis": 92, "slug": "elastic-inference-shows-up-in-power-draw", "when": "October 29, 2026", "whenLabel": "Oct 29, 2026", "date": "2026-10-29", "precision": "day", "event": "Amazon, revenue growth from a year earlier, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 15%.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "either", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbability": 46, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[1].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "earnings", "symbol": "AMZN", "rule": "Compare the revenue that Amazon reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 with the quarter ended September 30, 2025, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if growth is at or above 15.0%; no if it is below 15.0%.", "question": "Did the revenue of Amazon for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 grow at or above 15.0% from the quarter ended September 30, 2025?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Amazon (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)", "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001018724.json" }, "ambiguity": "If Amazon has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level B)" } ], "callExpects": "either", "format": "ladder", "group": "th092-amzn-revenue-yoy", "threshold": 15, "direction": "above", "unit": "%", "think": { "baseRate": "Amazon's revenue growth from a year earlier was 19.6% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.", "outsideView": "The year-earlier quarter is not on the same concept in the filings, so the rungs sit on the last print alone.", "wouldChange": "The results-calendar consensus for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 implies 12.2%, and the middle rung is centred there." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th092-t02", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/elastic-inference-shows-up-in-power-draw/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 16, "at": "2026-10-22T07:12:06Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 13, "at": "2026-10-22T07:12:17Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th092-t03", "part": null, "thesis": 92, "slug": "elastic-inference-shows-up-in-power-draw", "when": "October 29, 2026", "whenLabel": "Oct 29, 2026", "date": "2026-10-29", "precision": "day", "event": "Amazon, revenue growth from a year earlier, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 18%.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "no", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbability": 25, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[2].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "earnings", "symbol": "AMZN", "rule": "Compare the revenue that Amazon reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 with the quarter ended September 30, 2025, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if growth is at or above 18.0%; no if it is below 18.0%.", "question": "Did the revenue of Amazon for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 grow at or above 18.0% from the quarter ended September 30, 2025?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Amazon (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)", "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001018724.json" }, "ambiguity": "If Amazon has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level B)" } ], "callExpects": "no", "format": "ladder", "group": "th092-amzn-revenue-yoy", "threshold": 18, "direction": "above", "unit": "%", "think": { "baseRate": "Amazon's revenue growth from a year earlier was 19.6% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.", "outsideView": "The year-earlier quarter is not on the same concept in the filings, so the rungs sit on the last print alone.", "wouldChange": "The results-calendar consensus for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 implies 12.2%, and the middle rung is centred there." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th092-t03", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/elastic-inference-shows-up-in-power-draw/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 8, "at": "2026-10-22T07:12:22Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 3, "at": "2026-10-22T07:12:26Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th092-t04", "part": null, "thesis": 92, "slug": "elastic-inference-shows-up-in-power-draw", "when": "October 28, 2026", "whenLabel": "Oct 28, 2026", "date": "2026-10-28", "precision": "day", "event": "Alphabet, revenue growth from a year earlier, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 22%.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "yes", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbability": 72, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[3].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "earnings", "symbol": "GOOGL", "rule": "Compare the revenue that Alphabet reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 with the quarter ended September 30, 2025, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if growth is at or above 22.0%; no if it is below 22.0%.", "question": "Did the revenue of Alphabet for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 grow at or above 22.0% from the quarter ended September 30, 2025?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Alphabet (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)", "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001652044.json" }, "ambiguity": "If Alphabet has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level B)" } ], "callExpects": "yes", "format": "ladder", "group": "th092-googl-revenue-yoy", "threshold": 22, "direction": "above", "unit": "%", "think": { "baseRate": "Alphabet's revenue growth from a year earlier was 24.2% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.", "outsideView": "The year-earlier quarter is not on the same concept in the filings, so the rungs sit on the last print alone.", "wouldChange": "The results-calendar consensus for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 implies 25.0%, and the middle rung is centred there." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th092-t04", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/elastic-inference-shows-up-in-power-draw/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 22, "at": "2026-10-22T07:12:43Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 12, "at": "2026-10-22T07:13:04Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th092-t05", "part": null, "thesis": 92, "slug": "elastic-inference-shows-up-in-power-draw", "when": "October 28, 2026", "whenLabel": "Oct 28, 2026", "date": "2026-10-28", "precision": "day", "event": "Alphabet, revenue growth from a year earlier, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 24.5%.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "either", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbability": 50, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[4].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "earnings", "symbol": "GOOGL", "rule": "Compare the revenue that Alphabet reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 with the quarter ended September 30, 2025, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if growth is at or above 24.5%; no if it is below 24.5%.", "question": "Did the revenue of Alphabet for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 grow at or above 24.5% from the quarter ended September 30, 2025?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Alphabet (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)", "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001652044.json" }, "ambiguity": "If Alphabet has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level B)" } ], "callExpects": "either", "format": "ladder", "group": "th092-googl-revenue-yoy", "threshold": 24.5, "direction": "above", "unit": "%", "think": { "baseRate": "Alphabet's revenue growth from a year earlier was 24.2% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.", "outsideView": "The year-earlier quarter is not on the same concept in the filings, so the rungs sit on the last print alone.", "wouldChange": "The results-calendar consensus for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 implies 25.0%, and the middle rung is centred there." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th092-t05", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/elastic-inference-shows-up-in-power-draw/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 12, "at": "2026-10-22T07:13:10Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 5, "at": "2026-10-22T07:13:24Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th092-t06", "part": null, "thesis": 92, "slug": "elastic-inference-shows-up-in-power-draw", "when": "October 28, 2026", "whenLabel": "Oct 28, 2026", "date": "2026-10-28", "precision": "day", "event": "Alphabet, revenue growth from a year earlier, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 27%.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "no", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbability": 27, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[5].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "earnings", "symbol": "GOOGL", "rule": "Compare the revenue that Alphabet reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 with the quarter ended September 30, 2025, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if growth is at or above 27.0%; no if it is below 27.0%.", "question": "Did the revenue of Alphabet for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 grow at or above 27.0% from the quarter ended September 30, 2025?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Alphabet (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)", "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001652044.json" }, "ambiguity": "If Alphabet has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level B)" } ], "callExpects": "no", "format": "ladder", "group": "th092-googl-revenue-yoy", "threshold": 27, "direction": "above", "unit": "%", "think": { "baseRate": "Alphabet's revenue growth from a year earlier was 24.2% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.", "outsideView": "The year-earlier quarter is not on the same concept in the filings, so the rungs sit on the last print alone.", "wouldChange": "The results-calendar consensus for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 implies 25.0%, and the middle rung is centred there." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th092-t06", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/elastic-inference-shows-up-in-power-draw/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 4, "at": "2026-10-22T07:13:29Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 4, "at": "2026-10-22T07:13:36Z" } ], "readers": null } ] }