{ "generatedAt": "2026-10-22T16:04:11Z", "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/gas-price-squeeze-from-ai-and-lng/", "disclaimer": "Analysis and opinion, not investment advice.", "id": "gas-price-squeeze-from-ai-and-lng", "number": 73, "question": "Will the Henry Hub front-month natural gas settlement price close above $7.00/MMBtu on any trading day before 2027-12-31?", "dek": "Combined AI datacenter gas burn, LNG export ramp, and slowing shale supply growth push Henry Hub above $7 at least once, showing the gas bridge is supply-constrained rather than cheap.", "family": "T04", "subthesis": "T04.02", "sector": "AI.POWER", "subsectors": [ "AI.POWER.GAS", "AI.POWER.MARKET" ], "relatedParts": [ 6, 13 ], "version": 2, "updatedOn": "2026-10-22", "approvedAt": "2026-10-22T12:59:03Z", "sectorName": "Power, Energy & Grid", "api": "https://deepstack.ltd/api/v1/theses/gas-price-squeeze-from-ai-and-lng.json", "sides": [ { "id": "yes", "label": "Gas is the bridge fuel for AI load", "summary": "Incremental power-sector gas demand from datacenters stacks on top of record LNG feedgas while associated-gas growth from maturing shale plays decelerates. Storage draws deepen and the Henry Hub curve spikes above $7, raising the cost of the gas bridge and inviting substitution or load curtailment.", "voices": [ { "name": "DeepValue Capital", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/deepvalue-capital/", "claim": "AI infrastructure requires significant electricity, which is increasingly powered by natural gas as backup and baseload generation. Major financial institutions and tech companies are financing AI buildout, creating structural demand for natural gas.", "date": "2026-08-14", "url": "https://deepvaluecapitalbykyler.substack.com/p/week-ending-81426-news-sentiment" }, { "name": "Tscsw", "entity": null, "claim": "The shale region experiencing historical depletion while demand surges from energy-intensive AI facilities and increased European LNG demand creates supply constraints supporting price appreciation.", "date": "2025-07-05", "url": "https://tscsw.substack.com/p/leave-equities-for-commodities" } ] }, { "id": "no", "label": "Henry Hub stays under $7 through 2027", "summary": "Fast-build gas-fired generation is the industry's answer to exponential AI power demand, and that buildout incentive supports continued drilling and production growth that can keep pace with power-sector and LNG demand. On this view, dry gas and associated gas supply expand enough that Henry Hub stays below $7 through 2027 despite rising AI and export demand. This side would be shown right if drilling activity and pipeline takeaway capacity expand enough that storage stays near historical norms.", "voices": [ { "name": "Michael Spyker", "entity": null, "claim": "Because official forecasts have understated how much domestic gas demand (especially from data centers) would grow, LNG developers planned export capacity assuming ample surplus gas would remain available; as AI-driven demand materializes…", "date": "2025-11-20", "url": "https://www.a16z.news/p/gas-fired-intelligence" }, { "name": "Kevin Gee", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/kevin-gee/", "claim": "As AI and data centers scale, power demands grow exponentially. New nuclear plants take 10+ years to build and face political resistance. Renewable buildout has timeline constraints. Natural gas plants can be built and deployed quickly and are…", "date": "2024-10-01", "url": "https://aletteraday.substack.com/p/letter-223-david-tepper-2024" } ] } ], "tests": [ { "id": "th073-t01", "part": null, "thesis": 73, "slug": "gas-price-squeeze-from-ai-and-lng", "when": "November 9, 2026", "whenLabel": "Nov 9, 2026", "date": "2026-11-09", "precision": "day", "event": "Constellation Energy, purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 20%.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "yes", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbability": 72, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[0].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Divide the purchases of property and equipment by the revenue that Constellation Energy reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 20.0%; no if it is below 20.0%.", "question": "Did the purchases of property and equipment of Constellation Energy for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 20.0% of its revenue?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Constellation Energy (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)", "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001868275.json" }, "ambiguity": "If Constellation Energy has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level B)" } ], "callExpects": "yes", "format": "ladder", "group": "th073-ceg-capex-intensity", "threshold": 20, "direction": "above", "unit": "%", "think": { "baseRate": "Constellation Energy's purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue was 21.3% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.", "outsideView": "A year earlier, for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 14.9%, so the rungs sit on the last print.", "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th073-t01", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/gas-price-squeeze-from-ai-and-lng/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 61, "at": "2026-10-22T06:41:05Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 15, "at": "2026-10-22T06:41:23Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th073-t02", "part": null, "thesis": 73, "slug": "gas-price-squeeze-from-ai-and-lng", "when": "November 9, 2026", "whenLabel": "Nov 9, 2026", "date": "2026-11-09", "precision": "day", "event": "Constellation Energy, purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 22.5%.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "either", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbability": 50, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[1].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Divide the purchases of property and equipment by the revenue that Constellation Energy reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 22.5%; no if it is below 22.5%.", "question": "Did the purchases of property and equipment of Constellation Energy for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 22.5% of its revenue?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Constellation Energy (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)", "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001868275.json" }, "ambiguity": "If Constellation Energy has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level B)" } ], "callExpects": "either", "format": "ladder", "group": "th073-ceg-capex-intensity", "threshold": 22.5, "direction": "above", "unit": "%", "think": { "baseRate": "Constellation Energy's purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue was 21.3% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.", "outsideView": "A year earlier, for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 14.9%, so the rungs sit on the last print.", "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th073-t02", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/gas-price-squeeze-from-ai-and-lng/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 26, "at": "2026-10-22T06:41:29Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 4, "at": "2026-10-22T06:41:36Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th073-t03", "part": null, "thesis": 73, "slug": "gas-price-squeeze-from-ai-and-lng", "when": "November 9, 2026", "whenLabel": "Nov 9, 2026", "date": "2026-11-09", "precision": "day", "event": "Constellation Energy, purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 25%.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "no", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbability": 28, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[2].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Divide the purchases of property and equipment by the revenue that Constellation Energy reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 25.0%; no if it is below 25.0%.", "question": "Did the purchases of property and equipment of Constellation Energy for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 25.0% of its revenue?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Constellation Energy (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)", "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001868275.json" }, "ambiguity": "If Constellation Energy has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level B)" } ], "callExpects": "no", "format": "ladder", "group": "th073-ceg-capex-intensity", "threshold": 25, "direction": "above", "unit": "%", "think": { "baseRate": "Constellation Energy's purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue was 21.3% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.", "outsideView": "A year earlier, for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 14.9%, so the rungs sit on the last print.", "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th073-t03", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/gas-price-squeeze-from-ai-and-lng/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 22, "at": "2026-10-22T06:41:40Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 93, "at": "2026-10-22T06:41:46Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th073-t04", "part": null, "thesis": 73, "slug": "gas-price-squeeze-from-ai-and-lng", "when": "November 6, 2026", "whenLabel": "Nov 6, 2026", "date": "2026-11-06", "precision": "day", "event": "Vistra, long-term debt as a share of the quarter's revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 410%.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "yes", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbability": 71, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[3].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Divide the long-term debt that Vistra reports at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 by the revenue it reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 410.0%; no if it is below 410.0%.", "question": "Did the long-term debt of Vistra at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 410.0% of its revenue for the quarter?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Vistra (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)", "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001692819.json" }, "ambiguity": "If Vistra has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level B)" } ], "callExpects": "yes", "format": "ladder", "group": "th073-vst-debt-to-revenue", "threshold": 410, "direction": "above", "unit": "%", "think": { "baseRate": "Vistra's long-term debt as a share of the quarter's revenue was 445.2% at the end of the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.", "outsideView": "A year earlier, at the end of the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 420.2%, so the rungs sit on the last print.", "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th073-t04", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/gas-price-squeeze-from-ai-and-lng/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 61, "at": "2026-10-22T06:41:51Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 70, "at": "2026-10-22T06:42:20Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th073-t05", "part": null, "thesis": 73, "slug": "gas-price-squeeze-from-ai-and-lng", "when": "November 6, 2026", "whenLabel": "Nov 6, 2026", "date": "2026-11-06", "precision": "day", "event": "Vistra, long-term debt as a share of the quarter's revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 435%.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "either", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbability": 53, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[4].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Divide the long-term debt that Vistra reports at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 by the revenue it reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 435.0%; no if it is below 435.0%.", "question": "Did the long-term debt of Vistra at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 435.0% of its revenue for the quarter?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Vistra (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)", "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001692819.json" }, "ambiguity": "If Vistra has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level B)" } ], "callExpects": "either", "format": "ladder", "group": "th073-vst-debt-to-revenue", "threshold": 435, "direction": "above", "unit": "%", "think": { "baseRate": "Vistra's long-term debt as a share of the quarter's revenue was 445.2% at the end of the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.", "outsideView": "A year earlier, at the end of the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 420.2%, so the rungs sit on the last print.", "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th073-t05", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/gas-price-squeeze-from-ai-and-lng/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 22, "at": "2026-10-22T06:42:25Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 12, "at": "2026-10-22T06:42:49Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th073-t06", "part": null, "thesis": 73, "slug": "gas-price-squeeze-from-ai-and-lng", "when": "November 6, 2026", "whenLabel": "Nov 6, 2026", "date": "2026-11-06", "precision": "day", "event": "Vistra, long-term debt as a share of the quarter's revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 455%.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "no", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbability": 32, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[5].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Divide the long-term debt that Vistra reports at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 by the revenue it reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 455.0%; no if it is below 455.0%.", "question": "Did the long-term debt of Vistra at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 455.0% of its revenue for the quarter?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Vistra (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)", "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001692819.json" }, "ambiguity": "If Vistra has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level B)" } ], "callExpects": "no", "format": "ladder", "group": "th073-vst-debt-to-revenue", "threshold": 455, "direction": "above", "unit": "%", "think": { "baseRate": "Vistra's long-term debt as a share of the quarter's revenue was 445.2% at the end of the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.", "outsideView": "A year earlier, at the end of the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 420.2%, so the rungs sit on the last print.", "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th073-t06", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/gas-price-squeeze-from-ai-and-lng/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 22, "at": "2026-10-22T06:42:54Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 8, "at": "2026-10-22T06:43:09Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th073-t20", "part": null, "thesis": 73, "slug": "gas-price-squeeze-from-ai-and-lng", "when": "Apr 6", "whenLabel": "Apr 6, 2027", "date": "2027-04-06", "precision": "day", "event": "US Energy Information Administration: release of 2027-04-06", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "yes", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level A)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T14:52:52Z", "callProbability": 78, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T14:52:52Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[19].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Read the Short-Term Energy Outlook the US Energy Information Administration releases on April 6, 2027 (the archive workbook apr27_base.xlsx, Table 7a, line ELTCTWH) and add the twelve monthly figures for 2027 of the retail sales of electricity to ultimate customers in the United States, all sectors. The answer is yes if the sum is at or above 4,200.0 billion kilowatthours; no if it is below 4,200.0 billion kilowatthours.", "question": "Will the EIA's April 2027 Short-Term Energy Outlook put US retail electricity sales for 2027 at or above 4,200.0 billion kilowatthours?", "source": { "label": "US Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Table 7a (U.S. Electricity Industry Overview)", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/apr27_base.xlsx" }, "ambiguity": "If the EIA has not posted the April 2027 workbook in its archive by April 13, 2027, or the table lacks a line or a month the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; a later outlook does not change the reading.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level A)" } ], "callExpects": "yes", "format": "binary", "think": { "baseRate": "The October 2026 outlook, the latest before this question, puts US retail electricity sales for 2027 at 4,216.6 billion kilowatthours.", "outsideView": "For 2026 the same outlook reads 4,152.0 billion kilowatthours; a monthly outlook moves the year ahead by a few percent at most.", "wouldChange": "A revised load forecast for data centers, a different weather or gas-price path, or a change in the table's composition would move the reading." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th073-t20", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/gas-price-squeeze-from-ai-and-lng/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 72, "at": "2026-10-22T13:58:58Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 78, "at": "2026-10-22T13:59:18Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th073-t21", "part": null, "thesis": 73, "slug": "gas-price-squeeze-from-ai-and-lng", "when": "Apr 6", "whenLabel": "Apr 6, 2027", "date": "2027-04-06", "precision": "day", "event": "US Energy Information Administration: release of 2027-04-06", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "no", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T14:52:52Z", "callProbability": 35, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T14:52:52Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[20].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Read the Short-Term Energy Outlook the US Energy Information Administration releases on April 6, 2027 (the archive workbook apr27_base.xlsx, Table 7a, lines ELWHU_TX, ELWHU_CA, ELWHU_NE, ELWHU_NY, ELWHU_PJ, ELWHU_MW, ELWHU_SP, ELWHU_SE, ELWHU_FL, ELWHU_NW and ELWHU_SW) and average the twelve monthly figures for 2027 of each of these eleven wholesale electricity hubs, then average those eleven figures. The answer is yes if the result is at or above $50.00 per megawatthour; no if it is below $50.00 per megawatthour.", "question": "Will the EIA's April 2027 Short-Term Energy Outlook average at or above $50.00 per megawatthour across its eleven wholesale electricity hubs for 2027?", "source": { "label": "US Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Table 7a (U.S. Electricity Industry Overview)", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/apr27_base.xlsx" }, "ambiguity": "If the EIA has not posted the April 2027 workbook in its archive by April 13, 2027, or the table lacks a line or a month the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; a later outlook does not change the reading.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level B)" } ], "callExpects": "no", "format": "binary", "think": { "baseRate": "The October 2026 outlook, the latest before this question, averages $46.41 per megawatthour across the eleven hubs for 2027.", "outsideView": "For 2026 the same outlook averages $49.24; the hub forecasts move with the gas price path between releases.", "wouldChange": "A revised load forecast for data centers, a different weather or gas-price path, or a change in the table's composition would move the reading." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th073-t21", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/gas-price-squeeze-from-ai-and-lng/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 80, "at": "2026-10-22T13:59:23Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 55, "at": "2026-10-22T14:00:01Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th073-t23", "part": null, "thesis": 73, "slug": "gas-price-squeeze-from-ai-and-lng", "when": "May 11", "whenLabel": "May 11, 2027", "date": "2027-05-11", "precision": "day", "event": "US Energy Information Administration: release of 2027-05-11", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "yes", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level A)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T14:52:52Z", "callProbability": 78, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T14:52:52Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[22].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Read the Short-Term Energy Outlook the US Energy Information Administration releases on May 11, 2027 (the archive workbook may27_base.xlsx, Table 7a, line ELTCTWH) and add the twelve monthly figures for 2027 of the retail sales of electricity to ultimate customers in the United States, all sectors. The answer is yes if the sum is at or above 4,200.0 billion kilowatthours; no if it is below 4,200.0 billion kilowatthours.", "question": "Will the EIA's May 2027 Short-Term Energy Outlook put US retail electricity sales for 2027 at or above 4,200.0 billion kilowatthours?", "source": { "label": "US Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Table 7a (U.S. Electricity Industry Overview)", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/may27_base.xlsx" }, "ambiguity": "If the EIA has not posted the May 2027 workbook in its archive by May 18, 2027, or the table lacks a line or a month the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; a later outlook does not change the reading.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level A)" } ], "callExpects": "yes", "format": "binary", "think": { "baseRate": "The October 2026 outlook, the latest before this question, puts US retail electricity sales for 2027 at 4,216.6 billion kilowatthours.", "outsideView": "For 2026 the same outlook reads 4,152.0 billion kilowatthours; a monthly outlook moves the year ahead by a few percent at most.", "wouldChange": "A revised load forecast for data centers, a different weather or gas-price path, or a change in the table's composition would move the reading." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th073-t23", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/gas-price-squeeze-from-ai-and-lng/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 61, "at": "2026-10-22T14:00:19Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 68, "at": "2026-10-22T14:00:47Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th073-t24", "part": null, "thesis": 73, "slug": "gas-price-squeeze-from-ai-and-lng", "when": "May 11", "whenLabel": "May 11, 2027", "date": "2027-05-11", "precision": "day", "event": "US Energy Information Administration: release of 2027-05-11", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "no", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T14:52:52Z", "callProbability": 38, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T14:52:52Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[23].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Read the Short-Term Energy Outlook the US Energy Information Administration releases on May 11, 2027 (the archive workbook may27_base.xlsx, Table 7a, lines ELWHU_TX, ELWHU_CA, ELWHU_NE, ELWHU_NY, ELWHU_PJ, ELWHU_MW, ELWHU_SP, ELWHU_SE, ELWHU_FL, ELWHU_NW and ELWHU_SW) and average the twelve monthly figures for 2027 of each of these eleven wholesale electricity hubs, then average those eleven figures. The answer is yes if the result is at or above $50.00 per megawatthour; no if it is below $50.00 per megawatthour.", "question": "Will the EIA's May 2027 Short-Term Energy Outlook average at or above $50.00 per megawatthour across its eleven wholesale electricity hubs for 2027?", "source": { "label": "US Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Table 7a (U.S. Electricity Industry Overview)", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/may27_base.xlsx" }, "ambiguity": "If the EIA has not posted the May 2027 workbook in its archive by May 18, 2027, or the table lacks a line or a month the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; a later outlook does not change the reading.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level B)" } ], "callExpects": "no", "format": "binary", "think": { "baseRate": "The October 2026 outlook, the latest before this question, averages $46.41 per megawatthour across the eleven hubs for 2027.", "outsideView": "For 2026 the same outlook averages $49.24; the hub forecasts move with the gas price path between releases.", "wouldChange": "A revised load forecast for data centers, a different weather or gas-price path, or a change in the table's composition would move the reading." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th073-t24", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/gas-price-squeeze-from-ai-and-lng/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 82, "at": "2026-10-22T14:00:51Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 56, "at": "2026-10-22T14:01:18Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th073-t25", "part": null, "thesis": 73, "slug": "gas-price-squeeze-from-ai-and-lng", "when": "Jun 8", "whenLabel": "Jun 8, 2027", "date": "2027-06-08", "precision": "day", "event": "US Energy Information Administration: release of 2027-06-08", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "yes", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T14:52:52Z", "callProbability": 62, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T14:52:52Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[24].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Read the Short-Term Energy Outlook the US Energy Information Administration releases on June 8, 2027 (the archive workbook jun27_base.xlsx, Table 7a, line ELCCP_US) and compare the sum of the twelve monthly figures for 2027 of the retail sales of electricity to the commercial sector in the United States with the sum of those for 2026 in the same workbook. The answer is yes if growth is at or above 2.5%; no if it is below 2.5%.", "question": "Will the EIA's June 2027 Short-Term Energy Outlook have US commercial electricity sales for 2027 growing at or above 2.5% from 2026?", "source": { "label": "US Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Table 7a (U.S. Electricity Industry Overview)", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/jun27_base.xlsx" }, "ambiguity": "If the EIA has not posted the June 2027 workbook in its archive by June 15, 2027, or the table lacks a line or a month the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; a later outlook does not change the reading.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level B)" } ], "callExpects": "yes", "format": "binary", "think": { "baseRate": "The October 2026 outlook, the latest before this question, has US commercial electricity sales for 2027 growing +2.82% from 2026.", "outsideView": "For 2026 the same outlook reads 1,548.7 billion kilowatthours; a monthly outlook moves the year ahead by a few percent at most.", "wouldChange": "A revised load forecast for data centers, a different weather or gas-price path, or a change in the table's composition would move the reading." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th073-t25", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/gas-price-squeeze-from-ai-and-lng/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 33, "at": "2026-10-22T14:01:22Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 28, "at": "2026-10-22T14:01:32Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th073-t26", "part": null, "thesis": 73, "slug": "gas-price-squeeze-from-ai-and-lng", "when": "Jun 8", "whenLabel": "Jun 8, 2027", "date": "2027-06-08", "precision": "day", "event": "US Energy Information Administration: release of 2027-06-08", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "yes", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level A)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T14:52:52Z", "callProbability": 76, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T14:52:52Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[25].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Read the Short-Term Energy Outlook the US Energy Information Administration releases on June 8, 2027 (the archive workbook jun27_base.xlsx, Table 7a, line ELTCTWH) and add the twelve monthly figures for 2027 of the retail sales of electricity to ultimate customers in the United States, all sectors. The answer is yes if the sum is at or above 4,200.0 billion kilowatthours; no if it is below 4,200.0 billion kilowatthours.", "question": "Will the EIA's June 2027 Short-Term Energy Outlook put US retail electricity sales for 2027 at or above 4,200.0 billion kilowatthours?", "source": { "label": "US Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Table 7a (U.S. Electricity Industry Overview)", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/jun27_base.xlsx" }, "ambiguity": "If the EIA has not posted the June 2027 workbook in its archive by June 15, 2027, or the table lacks a line or a month the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; a later outlook does not change the reading.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level A)" } ], "callExpects": "yes", "format": "binary", "think": { "baseRate": "The October 2026 outlook, the latest before this question, puts US retail electricity sales for 2027 at 4,216.6 billion kilowatthours.", "outsideView": "For 2026 the same outlook reads 4,152.0 billion kilowatthours; a monthly outlook moves the year ahead by a few percent at most.", "wouldChange": "A revised load forecast for data centers, a different weather or gas-price path, or a change in the table's composition would move the reading." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th073-t26", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/gas-price-squeeze-from-ai-and-lng/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 60, "at": "2026-10-22T14:01:36Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 53, "at": "2026-10-22T14:02:07Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th073-t27", "part": null, "thesis": 73, "slug": "gas-price-squeeze-from-ai-and-lng", "when": "Jun 8", "whenLabel": "Jun 8, 2027", "date": "2027-06-08", "precision": "day", "event": "US Energy Information Administration: release of 2027-06-08", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "no", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T14:52:52Z", "callProbability": 38, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T14:52:52Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[26].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Read the Short-Term Energy Outlook the US Energy Information Administration releases on June 8, 2027 (the archive workbook jun27_base.xlsx, Table 7a, lines ELWHU_TX, ELWHU_CA, ELWHU_NE, ELWHU_NY, ELWHU_PJ, ELWHU_MW, ELWHU_SP, ELWHU_SE, ELWHU_FL, ELWHU_NW and ELWHU_SW) and average the twelve monthly figures for 2027 of each of these eleven wholesale electricity hubs, then average those eleven figures. The answer is yes if the result is at or above $50.00 per megawatthour; no if it is below $50.00 per megawatthour.", "question": "Will the EIA's June 2027 Short-Term Energy Outlook average at or above $50.00 per megawatthour across its eleven wholesale electricity hubs for 2027?", "source": { "label": "US Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Table 7a (U.S. Electricity Industry Overview)", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/jun27_base.xlsx" }, "ambiguity": "If the EIA has not posted the June 2027 workbook in its archive by June 15, 2027, or the table lacks a line or a month the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; a later outlook does not change the reading.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level B)" } ], "callExpects": "no", "format": "binary", "think": { "baseRate": "The October 2026 outlook, the latest before this question, averages $46.41 per megawatthour across the eleven hubs for 2027.", "outsideView": "For 2026 the same outlook averages $49.24; the hub forecasts move with the gas price path between releases.", "wouldChange": "A revised load forecast for data centers, a different weather or gas-price path, or a change in the table's composition would move the reading." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th073-t27", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/gas-price-squeeze-from-ai-and-lng/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 88, "at": "2026-10-22T14:02:11Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 57, "at": "2026-10-22T14:02:37Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th073-t28", "part": null, "thesis": 73, "slug": "gas-price-squeeze-from-ai-and-lng", "when": "Jul 7", "whenLabel": "Jul 7, 2027", "date": "2027-07-07", "precision": "day", "event": "US Energy Information Administration: release of 2027-07-07", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "yes", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level A)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T14:52:52Z", "callProbability": 62, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T14:52:52Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[27].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Read the Short-Term Energy Outlook the US Energy Information Administration releases on July 7, 2027 (the archive workbook jul27_base.xlsx, Table 7a, line ELCCP_US) and compare the sum of the twelve monthly figures for 2027 of the retail sales of electricity to the commercial sector in the United States with the sum of those for 2026 in the same workbook. The answer is yes if growth is at or above 2.5%; no if it is below 2.5%.", "question": "Will the EIA's July 2027 Short-Term Energy Outlook have US commercial electricity sales for 2027 growing at or above 2.5% from 2026?", "source": { "label": "US Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Table 7a (U.S. Electricity Industry Overview)", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/jul27_base.xlsx" }, "ambiguity": "If the EIA has not posted the July 2027 workbook in its archive by July 14, 2027, or the table lacks a line or a month the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; a later outlook does not change the reading.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level A)" } ], "callExpects": "yes", "format": "binary", "think": { "baseRate": "The October 2026 outlook, the latest before this question, has US commercial electricity sales for 2027 growing +2.82% from 2026.", "outsideView": "For 2026 the same outlook reads 1,548.7 billion kilowatthours; a monthly outlook moves the year ahead by a few percent at most.", "wouldChange": "A revised load forecast for data centers, a different weather or gas-price path, or a change in the table's composition would move the reading." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th073-t28", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/gas-price-squeeze-from-ai-and-lng/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 30, "at": "2026-10-22T14:02:44Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 35, "at": "2026-10-22T14:03:03Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th073-t29", "part": null, "thesis": 73, "slug": "gas-price-squeeze-from-ai-and-lng", "when": "Jul 7", "whenLabel": "Jul 7, 2027", "date": "2027-07-07", "precision": "day", "event": "US Energy Information Administration: release of 2027-07-07", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "yes", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level A)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T14:52:52Z", "callProbability": 76, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T14:52:52Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[28].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Read the Short-Term Energy Outlook the US Energy Information Administration releases on July 7, 2027 (the archive workbook jul27_base.xlsx, Table 7a, line ELTCTWH) and add the twelve monthly figures for 2027 of the retail sales of electricity to ultimate customers in the United States, all sectors. The answer is yes if the sum is at or above 4,200.0 billion kilowatthours; no if it is below 4,200.0 billion kilowatthours.", "question": "Will the EIA's July 2027 Short-Term Energy Outlook put US retail electricity sales for 2027 at or above 4,200.0 billion kilowatthours?", "source": { "label": "US Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Table 7a (U.S. Electricity Industry Overview)", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/jul27_base.xlsx" }, "ambiguity": "If the EIA has not posted the July 2027 workbook in its archive by July 14, 2027, or the table lacks a line or a month the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; a later outlook does not change the reading.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level A)" } ], "callExpects": "yes", "format": "binary", "think": { "baseRate": "The October 2026 outlook, the latest before this question, puts US retail electricity sales for 2027 at 4,216.6 billion kilowatthours.", "outsideView": "For 2026 the same outlook reads 4,152.0 billion kilowatthours; a monthly outlook moves the year ahead by a few percent at most.", "wouldChange": "A revised load forecast for data centers, a different weather or gas-price path, or a change in the table's composition would move the reading." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th073-t29", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/gas-price-squeeze-from-ai-and-lng/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 72, "at": "2026-10-22T14:03:16Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 48, "at": "2026-10-22T14:03:45Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th073-t32", "part": null, "thesis": 73, "slug": "gas-price-squeeze-from-ai-and-lng", "when": "Aug 10", "whenLabel": "Aug 10, 2027", "date": "2027-08-10", "precision": "day", "event": "US Energy Information Administration: release of 2027-08-10", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "yes", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level A)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T14:52:52Z", "callProbability": 76, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T14:52:52Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[31].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Read the Short-Term Energy Outlook the US Energy Information Administration releases on August 10, 2027 (the archive workbook aug27_base.xlsx, Table 7a, line ELTCTWH) and add the twelve monthly figures for 2027 of the retail sales of electricity to ultimate customers in the United States, all sectors. The answer is yes if the sum is at or above 4,200.0 billion kilowatthours; no if it is below 4,200.0 billion kilowatthours.", "question": "Will the EIA's August 2027 Short-Term Energy Outlook put US retail electricity sales for 2027 at or above 4,200.0 billion kilowatthours?", "source": { "label": "US Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Table 7a (U.S. Electricity Industry Overview)", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/aug27_base.xlsx" }, "ambiguity": "If the EIA has not posted the August 2027 workbook in its archive by August 17, 2027, or the table lacks a line or a month the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; a later outlook does not change the reading.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level A)" } ], "callExpects": "yes", "format": "binary", "think": { "baseRate": "The October 2026 outlook, the latest before this question, puts US retail electricity sales for 2027 at 4,216.6 billion kilowatthours.", "outsideView": "For 2026 the same outlook reads 4,152.0 billion kilowatthours; a monthly outlook moves the year ahead by a few percent at most.", "wouldChange": "A revised load forecast for data centers, a different weather or gas-price path, or a change in the table's composition would move the reading." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th073-t32", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/gas-price-squeeze-from-ai-and-lng/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 60, "at": "2026-10-22T14:04:51Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 62, "at": "2026-10-22T14:05:16Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th073-t33", "part": null, "thesis": 73, "slug": "gas-price-squeeze-from-ai-and-lng", "when": "Aug 10", "whenLabel": "Aug 10, 2027", "date": "2027-08-10", "precision": "day", "event": "US Energy Information Administration: release of 2027-08-10", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "no", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T14:52:52Z", "callProbability": 38, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T14:52:52Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[32].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Read the Short-Term Energy Outlook the US Energy Information Administration releases on August 10, 2027 (the archive workbook aug27_base.xlsx, Table 7a, lines ELWHU_TX, ELWHU_CA, ELWHU_NE, ELWHU_NY, ELWHU_PJ, ELWHU_MW, ELWHU_SP, ELWHU_SE, ELWHU_FL, ELWHU_NW and ELWHU_SW) and average the twelve monthly figures for 2027 of each of these eleven wholesale electricity hubs, then average those eleven figures. The answer is yes if the result is at or above $50.00 per megawatthour; no if it is below $50.00 per megawatthour.", "question": "Will the EIA's August 2027 Short-Term Energy Outlook average at or above $50.00 per megawatthour across its eleven wholesale electricity hubs for 2027?", "source": { "label": "US Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Table 7a (U.S. Electricity Industry Overview)", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/aug27_base.xlsx" }, "ambiguity": "If the EIA has not posted the August 2027 workbook in its archive by August 17, 2027, or the table lacks a line or a month the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; a later outlook does not change the reading.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level B)" } ], "callExpects": "no", "format": "binary", "think": { "baseRate": "The October 2026 outlook, the latest before this question, averages $46.41 per megawatthour across the eleven hubs for 2027.", "outsideView": "For 2026 the same outlook averages $49.24; the hub forecasts move with the gas price path between releases.", "wouldChange": "A revised load forecast for data centers, a different weather or gas-price path, or a change in the table's composition would move the reading." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th073-t33", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/gas-price-squeeze-from-ai-and-lng/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 80, "at": "2026-10-22T14:05:20Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 58, "at": "2026-10-22T14:06:04Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th073-t34", "part": null, "thesis": 73, "slug": "gas-price-squeeze-from-ai-and-lng", "when": "Sep 8", "whenLabel": "Sep 8, 2027", "date": "2027-09-08", "precision": "day", "event": "US Energy Information Administration: release of 2027-09-08", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "yes", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level A)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T14:52:52Z", "callProbability": 62, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T14:52:52Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[33].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Read the Short-Term Energy Outlook the US Energy Information Administration releases on September 8, 2027 (the archive workbook sep27_base.xlsx, Table 7a, line ELCCP_US) and compare the sum of the twelve monthly figures for 2027 of the retail sales of electricity to the commercial sector in the United States with the sum of those for 2026 in the same workbook. The answer is yes if growth is at or above 2.5%; no if it is below 2.5%.", "question": "Will the EIA's September 2027 Short-Term Energy Outlook have US commercial electricity sales for 2027 growing at or above 2.5% from 2026?", "source": { "label": "US Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Table 7a (U.S. Electricity Industry Overview)", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/sep27_base.xlsx" }, "ambiguity": "If the EIA has not posted the September 2027 workbook in its archive by September 15, 2027, or the table lacks a line or a month the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; a later outlook does not change the reading.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level A)" } ], "callExpects": "yes", "format": "binary", "think": { "baseRate": "The October 2026 outlook, the latest before this question, has US commercial electricity sales for 2027 growing +2.82% from 2026.", "outsideView": "For 2026 the same outlook reads 1,548.7 billion kilowatthours; a monthly outlook moves the year ahead by a few percent at most.", "wouldChange": "A revised load forecast for data centers, a different weather or gas-price path, or a change in the table's composition would move the reading." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th073-t34", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/gas-price-squeeze-from-ai-and-lng/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 30, "at": "2026-10-22T14:06:22Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 42, "at": "2026-10-22T14:06:40Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th073-t36", "part": null, "thesis": 73, "slug": "gas-price-squeeze-from-ai-and-lng", "when": "Sep 8", "whenLabel": "Sep 8, 2027", "date": "2027-09-08", "precision": "day", "event": "US Energy Information Administration: release of 2027-09-08", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "no", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level A)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T14:52:52Z", "callProbability": 37, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T14:52:52Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[35].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Read the Short-Term Energy Outlook the US Energy Information Administration releases on September 8, 2027 (the archive workbook sep27_base.xlsx, Table 7a, lines ELWHU_TX, ELWHU_CA, ELWHU_NE, ELWHU_NY, ELWHU_PJ, ELWHU_MW, ELWHU_SP, ELWHU_SE, ELWHU_FL, ELWHU_NW and ELWHU_SW) and average the twelve monthly figures for 2027 of each of these eleven wholesale electricity hubs, then average those eleven figures. The answer is yes if the result is at or above $50.00 per megawatthour; no if it is below $50.00 per megawatthour.", "question": "Will the EIA's September 2027 Short-Term Energy Outlook average at or above $50.00 per megawatthour across its eleven wholesale electricity hubs for 2027?", "source": { "label": "US Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Table 7a (U.S. Electricity Industry Overview)", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/sep27_base.xlsx" }, "ambiguity": "If the EIA has not posted the September 2027 workbook in its archive by September 15, 2027, or the table lacks a line or a month the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; a later outlook does not change the reading.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level A)" } ], "callExpects": "no", "format": "binary", "think": { "baseRate": "The October 2026 outlook, the latest before this question, averages $46.41 per megawatthour across the eleven hubs for 2027.", "outsideView": "For 2026 the same outlook averages $49.24; the hub forecasts move with the gas price path between releases.", "wouldChange": "A revised load forecast for data centers, a different weather or gas-price path, or a change in the table's composition would move the reading." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th073-t36", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/gas-price-squeeze-from-ai-and-lng/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 72, "at": "2026-10-22T14:07:31Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 55, "at": "2026-10-22T14:08:28Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th073-t37", "part": null, "thesis": 73, "slug": "gas-price-squeeze-from-ai-and-lng", "when": "Oct 13", "whenLabel": "Oct 13, 2027", "date": "2027-10-13", "precision": "day", "event": "US Energy Information Administration: release of 2027-10-13", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "yes", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level A)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T14:52:52Z", "callProbability": 58, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T14:52:52Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[36].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Read the Short-Term Energy Outlook the US Energy Information Administration releases on October 13, 2027 (the archive workbook oct27_base.xlsx, Table 7a, line ELCCP_US) and compare the sum of the twelve monthly figures for 2027 of the retail sales of electricity to the commercial sector in the United States with the sum of those for 2026 in the same workbook. The answer is yes if growth is at or above 2.5%; no if it is below 2.5%.", "question": "Will the EIA's October 2027 Short-Term Energy Outlook have US commercial electricity sales for 2027 growing at or above 2.5% from 2026?", "source": { "label": "US Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Table 7a (U.S. Electricity Industry Overview)", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/oct27_base.xlsx" }, "ambiguity": "If the EIA has not posted the October 2027 workbook in its archive by October 20, 2027, or the table lacks a line or a month the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; a later outlook does not change the reading.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level A)" } ], "callExpects": "yes", "format": "binary", "think": { "baseRate": "The October 2026 outlook, the latest before this question, has US commercial electricity sales for 2027 growing +2.82% from 2026.", "outsideView": "For 2026 the same outlook reads 1,548.7 billion kilowatthours; a monthly outlook moves the year ahead by a few percent at most.", "wouldChange": "A revised load forecast for data centers, a different weather or gas-price path, or a change in the table's composition would move the reading." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th073-t37", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/gas-price-squeeze-from-ai-and-lng/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 33, "at": "2026-10-22T14:08:46Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 46, "at": "2026-10-22T14:09:18Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th073-t40", "part": null, "thesis": 73, "slug": "gas-price-squeeze-from-ai-and-lng", "when": "Nov 9", "whenLabel": "Nov 9, 2027", "date": "2027-11-09", "precision": "day", "event": "US Energy Information Administration: release of 2027-11-09", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "yes", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level A)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T14:52:52Z", "callProbability": 58, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T14:52:52Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[39].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Read the Short-Term Energy Outlook the US Energy Information Administration releases on November 9, 2027 (the archive workbook nov27_base.xlsx, Table 7a, line ELCCP_US) and compare the sum of the twelve monthly figures for 2027 of the retail sales of electricity to the commercial sector in the United States with the sum of those for 2026 in the same workbook. The answer is yes if growth is at or above 2.5%; no if it is below 2.5%.", "question": "Will the EIA's November 2027 Short-Term Energy Outlook have US commercial electricity sales for 2027 growing at or above 2.5% from 2026?", "source": { "label": "US Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Table 7a (U.S. Electricity Industry Overview)", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/nov27_base.xlsx" }, "ambiguity": "If the EIA has not posted the November 2027 workbook in its archive by November 16, 2027, or the table lacks a line or a month the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; a later outlook does not change the reading.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level A)" } ], "callExpects": "yes", "format": "binary", "think": { "baseRate": "The October 2026 outlook, the latest before this question, has US commercial electricity sales for 2027 growing +2.82% from 2026.", "outsideView": "For 2026 the same outlook reads 1,548.7 billion kilowatthours; a monthly outlook moves the year ahead by a few percent at most.", "wouldChange": "A revised load forecast for data centers, a different weather or gas-price path, or a change in the table's composition would move the reading." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th073-t40", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/gas-price-squeeze-from-ai-and-lng/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 33, "at": "2026-10-22T14:10:25Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 35, "at": "2026-10-22T14:10:54Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th073-t43", "part": null, "thesis": 73, "slug": "gas-price-squeeze-from-ai-and-lng", "when": "Dec 7", "whenLabel": "Dec 7, 2027", "date": "2027-12-07", "precision": "day", "event": "US Energy Information Administration: release of 2027-12-07", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "yes", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level A)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T14:52:52Z", "callProbability": 61, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T14:52:52Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[42].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Read the Short-Term Energy Outlook the US Energy Information Administration releases on December 7, 2027 (the archive workbook dec27_base.xlsx, Table 7a, line ELCCP_US) and compare the sum of the twelve monthly figures for 2027 of the retail sales of electricity to the commercial sector in the United States with the sum of those for 2026 in the same workbook. The answer is yes if growth is at or above 2.5%; no if it is below 2.5%.", "question": "Will the EIA's December 2027 Short-Term Energy Outlook have US commercial electricity sales for 2027 growing at or above 2.5% from 2026?", "source": { "label": "US Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Table 7a (U.S. Electricity Industry Overview)", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/dec27_base.xlsx" }, "ambiguity": "If the EIA has not posted the December 2027 workbook in its archive by December 14, 2027, or the table lacks a line or a month the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; a later outlook does not change the reading.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level A)" } ], "callExpects": "yes", "format": "binary", "think": { "baseRate": "The October 2026 outlook, the latest before this question, has US commercial electricity sales for 2027 growing +2.82% from 2026.", "outsideView": "For 2026 the same outlook reads 1,548.7 billion kilowatthours; a monthly outlook moves the year ahead by a few percent at most.", "wouldChange": "A revised load forecast for data centers, a different weather or gas-price path, or a change in the table's composition would move the reading." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th073-t43", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/gas-price-squeeze-from-ai-and-lng/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 30, "at": "2026-10-22T14:12:10Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 40, "at": "2026-10-22T14:12:28Z" } ], "readers": null } ] }