{ "generatedAt": "2026-10-22T18:36:31Z", "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/residential-power-price-acceleration/", "disclaimer": "Analysis and opinion, not investment advice.", "id": "residential-power-price-acceleration", "number": 78, "question": "Will the EIA-reported US average residential electricity price for calendar year 2027 exceed 18.7 cents per kWh?", "dek": "Data center load growth outpaces generation and transmission additions, pushing the national average residential electricity price above 18.7 c/kWh in 2027.", "family": "T04", "subthesis": "T04.05", "sector": "AI.POWER", "subsectors": [ "AI.POWER.UTIL", "AI.POWER.MARKET", "AI.FIN.MACRO" ], "relatedParts": [ 13, 6 ], "approvedAt": "2026-10-22T05:42:55Z", "sectorName": "Power, Energy & Grid", "api": "https://deepstack.ltd/api/v1/theses/residential-power-price-acceleration.json", "sides": [ { "id": "yes", "label": "Households pay for data center load", "summary": "A 320 TWh demand surge in four years lands on a grid whose utility-scale capacity was essentially flat for 15 years, so capacity, fuel and transmission costs are recovered through regulated retail rates. National average residential electricity prices rise faster than the base forecast, lifting household energy bills. Tscsw cites EIA forecasts of electricity climbing from 17.3 cents/kWh in 2025 to 18.3 cents in 2026 and 18.7 cents in 2027 as demand collides with flat generation growth.", "voices": [ { "name": "Tscsw", "entity": null, "claim": "Utility-scale generation moved only 231 TWh from 2007-2021, essentially flat. Then 320 TWh arrived 2021-2025, creating surge in demand. EIA forecasts electricity climbing from 17.3 cents/kWh in 2025 to 18.3c in 2026 and 18.7c in 2027. PJM capacity…", "date": "2026-08-11", "url": "https://tscsw.substack.com/p/its-not-the-poor-its-you" }, { "name": "Michael Spencer", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/michael-spencer/", "claim": "The rapid deployment of AI datacenters creates surging power demand that strains US energy grids, pushing wholesale electricity costs sharply higher and accelerating consumer electricity price growth to roughly 61 percent faster than broader…", "date": "2026-05-19", "url": "https://www.ai-supremacy.com/p/tensions-mount-over-ai-consequences-on-the-future-2026" }, { "name": "Kevin Gee", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/kevin-gee/", "claim": "Massive simultaneous data center construction by major hyperscalers consumes huge amounts of electricity, and this demand surge collides with existing competition for materials and power from chip and green energy industrial policy, pushing up both…", "date": "2024-11-19", "url": "https://aletteraday.substack.com/p/letter-237-scott-bessent-and-kieran" } ] }, { "id": "no", "label": "Cost-spreading keeps prices below the threshold", "summary": "Moses Sternstein argues higher demand lets utilities distribute large fixed infrastructure costs across a bigger base of consumption, lowering per-unit prices rather than raising them as intuition suggests. Under this reasoning, data center load growth restrains rather than accelerates residential price increases. This side holds if EIA reports the 2027 average residential price at or below 18.7 cents per kWh, the outcome Sternstein's cost-spreading mechanism implies.", "voices": [ { "name": "Moses Sternstein", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/moses-sternstein/", "claim": "Higher demand allows utilities to distribute their large fixed infrastructure costs across a larger base of consumption, resulting in lower per-unit prices rather than the intuitive outcome of higher prices from higher demand.", "date": "2026-07-17", "url": "https://www.a16z.news/p/charts-of-the-week-softwares-selective" } ] } ], "tests": [ { "id": "th078-t01", "part": null, "thesis": 78, "slug": "residential-power-price-acceleration", "when": "November 9, 2026", "whenLabel": "Nov 9, 2026", "date": "2026-11-09", "precision": "day", "event": "Constellation Energy, purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 19%.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "yes", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbability": 66, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[0].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Divide the purchases of property and equipment by the revenue that Constellation Energy reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 19.0%; no if it is below 19.0%.", "question": "Did the purchases of property and equipment of Constellation Energy for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 19.0% of its revenue?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Constellation Energy (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)", "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001868275.json" }, "ambiguity": "If Constellation Energy has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level B)" } ], "callExpects": "yes", "format": "ladder", "group": "th078-ceg-capex-intensity", "threshold": 19, "direction": "above", "unit": "%", "think": { "baseRate": "Constellation Energy's purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue was 21.3% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.", "outsideView": "A year earlier, for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 14.9%, so the rungs sit on the last print.", "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th078-t01", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/residential-power-price-acceleration/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 63, "at": "2026-10-22T06:52:19Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 15, "at": "2026-10-22T06:52:47Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th078-t02", "part": null, "thesis": 78, "slug": "residential-power-price-acceleration", "when": "November 9, 2026", "whenLabel": "Nov 9, 2026", "date": "2026-11-09", "precision": "day", "event": "Constellation Energy, purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 23%.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "no", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbability": 45, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[1].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Divide the purchases of property and equipment by the revenue that Constellation Energy reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 23.0%; no if it is below 23.0%.", "question": "Did the purchases of property and equipment of Constellation Energy for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 23.0% of its revenue?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Constellation Energy (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)", "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001868275.json" }, "ambiguity": "If Constellation Energy has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level B)" } ], "callExpects": "no", "format": "ladder", "group": "th078-ceg-capex-intensity", "threshold": 23, "direction": "above", "unit": "%", "think": { "baseRate": "Constellation Energy's purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue was 21.3% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.", "outsideView": "A year earlier, for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 14.9%, so the rungs sit on the last print.", "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th078-t02", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/residential-power-price-acceleration/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 33, "at": "2026-10-22T06:52:51Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 8, "at": "2026-10-22T06:52:56Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th078-t03", "part": null, "thesis": 78, "slug": "residential-power-price-acceleration", "when": "November 9, 2026", "whenLabel": "Nov 9, 2026", "date": "2026-11-09", "precision": "day", "event": "Constellation Energy, purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 27%.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "no", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbability": 24, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[2].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Divide the purchases of property and equipment by the revenue that Constellation Energy reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 27.0%; no if it is below 27.0%.", "question": "Did the purchases of property and equipment of Constellation Energy for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 27.0% of its revenue?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Constellation Energy (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)", "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001868275.json" }, "ambiguity": "If Constellation Energy has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level B)" } ], "callExpects": "no", "format": "ladder", "group": "th078-ceg-capex-intensity", "threshold": 27, "direction": "above", "unit": "%", "think": { "baseRate": "Constellation Energy's purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue was 21.3% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.", "outsideView": "A year earlier, for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 14.9%, so the rungs sit on the last print.", "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th078-t03", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/residential-power-price-acceleration/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 33, "at": "2026-10-22T06:53:02Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 94, "at": "2026-10-22T06:53:10Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th078-t04", "part": null, "thesis": 78, "slug": "residential-power-price-acceleration", "when": "November 6, 2026", "whenLabel": "Nov 6, 2026", "date": "2026-11-06", "precision": "day", "event": "Vistra, long-term debt as a share of the quarter's revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 425%.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "yes", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbability": 65, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[3].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Divide the long-term debt that Vistra reports at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 by the revenue it reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 425.0%; no if it is below 425.0%.", "question": "Did the long-term debt of Vistra at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 425.0% of its revenue for the quarter?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Vistra (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)", "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001692819.json" }, "ambiguity": "If Vistra has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level B)" } ], "callExpects": "yes", "format": "ladder", "group": "th078-vst-debt-to-revenue", "threshold": 425, "direction": "above", "unit": "%", "think": { "baseRate": "Vistra's long-term debt as a share of the quarter's revenue was 445.2% at the end of the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.", "outsideView": "A year earlier, at the end of the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 420.2%, so the rungs sit on the last print.", "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th078-t04", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/residential-power-price-acceleration/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 72, "at": "2026-10-22T06:53:14Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 57, "at": "2026-10-22T06:53:44Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th078-t05", "part": null, "thesis": 78, "slug": "residential-power-price-acceleration", "when": "November 6, 2026", "whenLabel": "Nov 6, 2026", "date": "2026-11-06", "precision": "day", "event": "Vistra, long-term debt as a share of the quarter's revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 470%.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "no", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbability": 43, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[4].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Divide the long-term debt that Vistra reports at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 by the revenue it reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 470.0%; no if it is below 470.0%.", "question": "Did the long-term debt of Vistra at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 470.0% of its revenue for the quarter?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Vistra (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)", "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001692819.json" }, "ambiguity": "If Vistra has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level B)" } ], "callExpects": "no", "format": "ladder", "group": "th078-vst-debt-to-revenue", "threshold": 470, "direction": "above", "unit": "%", "think": { "baseRate": "Vistra's long-term debt as a share of the quarter's revenue was 445.2% at the end of the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.", "outsideView": "A year earlier, at the end of the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 420.2%, so the rungs sit on the last print.", "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th078-t05", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/residential-power-price-acceleration/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 13, "at": "2026-10-22T06:53:55Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 10, "at": "2026-10-22T06:54:02Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th078-t06", "part": null, "thesis": 78, "slug": "residential-power-price-acceleration", "when": "November 6, 2026", "whenLabel": "Nov 6, 2026", "date": "2026-11-06", "precision": "day", "event": "Vistra, long-term debt as a share of the quarter's revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 515%.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "no", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbability": 21, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[5].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Divide the long-term debt that Vistra reports at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 by the revenue it reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 515.0%; no if it is below 515.0%.", "question": "Did the long-term debt of Vistra at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 515.0% of its revenue for the quarter?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Vistra (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)", "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001692819.json" }, "ambiguity": "If Vistra has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level B)" } ], "callExpects": "no", "format": "ladder", "group": "th078-vst-debt-to-revenue", "threshold": 515, "direction": "above", "unit": "%", "think": { "baseRate": "Vistra's long-term debt as a share of the quarter's revenue was 445.2% at the end of the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.", "outsideView": "A year earlier, at the end of the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 420.2%, so the rungs sit on the last print.", "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th078-t06", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/residential-power-price-acceleration/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 22, "at": "2026-10-22T06:54:06Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 7, "at": "2026-10-22T06:54:11Z" } ], "readers": null } ] }