{ "generatedAt": "2026-10-22T16:04:11Z", "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/smic-advanced-node-diffusion/", "disclaimer": "Analysis and opinion, not investment advice.", "id": "smic-advanced-node-diffusion", "number": 47, "question": "Will a mainland Chinese foundry other than SMIC publicly confirm volume production at a 7nm-class (N+2) or better logic node before 2027-12-31?", "dek": "Process learning diffuses from SMIC to Hua Hong/HLMC and other domestic fabs, widening the choke point so that entity-list controls aimed at single firms stop determining outcomes.", "family": "T14", "subthesis": "T14.01", "sector": "AI.SEMI", "subsectors": [ "AI.SEMI.FOUNDRY", "AI.SEMI.GPU", "AI.SEMI.ASIC", "AI.MODEL.FRONTIER" ], "relatedParts": [ 15 ], "approvedAt": "2026-10-22T01:56:07Z", "sectorName": "Semiconductors & Compute Silicon", "api": "https://deepstack.ltd/api/v1/theses/smic-advanced-node-diffusion.json", "sides": [ { "id": "yes", "label": "Process knowledge diffuses beyond SMIC", "summary": "State-directed licensing and personnel transfer move SMIC's N+2/N+3 process knowledge to peer fabs like HLMC and Hua Hong, with the same learning feeding accelerator programs. Once this diffusion happens, no single entity remains the bottleneck, so a mainland foundry other than SMIC confirms volume production at a 7nm-class or better node before 2027 ends. An entity-list approach aimed at SMIC alone stops controlling the outcome.", "voices": [ { "name": "Steel Team", "entity": null, "claim": "Once the manufacturing knowledge behind N+2 and N+3 is transferred to HLMC/Hua Hong and the same learning feeds accelerator programs, no single entity remains the bottleneck, so an entity-list approach aimed at SMIC alone stops controlling the…", "date": "2026-06-14", "url": "https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/steel-smic-n3-teardown" } ] }, { "id": "no", "label": "SMIC stays the sole confirmed source", "summary": "No mainland Chinese foundry other than SMIC publicly confirms volume production at a 7nm-class or better logic node before 2027 ends. Export restrictions on advanced tools and inputs keep process knowledge bottlenecked at SMIC even as China invests in domestic substitutes elsewhere in the stack. Only SMIC is credibly identified as the source of sub-10nm Chinese logic through the window.", "voices": [ { "name": "Olivia Moore", "entity": null, "claim": "Western sanctions restricted access to US AI tools in Russia since 2022, and China requires local hosting and censorship compliance. These policy barriers created gaps that local products like Yandex's Alice, Sber's GigaChat, and China's Doubao and…", "date": "2026-03-09", "url": "https://www.a16z.news/p/top-100-gen-ai-consumer-apps-march" }, { "name": "Timothy B Lee", "entity": null, "claim": "When the U.S. restricts access to latest NVIDIA GPUs, China cannot simply wait. Chinese companies invest in heterogeneous hardware training systems, improve domestic GPU production, and Chinese companies naturally prefer domestic GPUs when foreign…", "date": "2025-01-14", "url": "https://www.understandingai.org/p/jon-askonas-on-ai-policy-in-the-trump" }, { "name": "Michael Spencer", "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/michael-spencer/", "claim": "Nations seeking to gain an upper hand in military AI technology invest heavily to control critical inputs like semiconductors and data flows. This competition creates mutual unease and incentivizes each nation to reduce reliance on others for…", "date": "2023-05-31", "url": "https://www.ai-supremacy.com/p/ais-world-order-national-security" } ] } ], "tests": [ { "id": "th047-t01", "part": null, "thesis": 47, "slug": "smic-advanced-node-diffusion", "when": "November 12, 2026", "whenLabel": "Nov 12, 2026", "date": "2026-11-12", "precision": "day", "event": "Applied Materials, revenue growth from a year earlier, quarter ended October 25, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 46%.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "yes", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T03:45:00Z", "callProbability": 62, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T03:45:00Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[0].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Compare the revenue that Applied Materials reports for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 with the quarter ended October 26, 2025, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if growth is at or above 46.0%; no if it is below 46.0%.", "question": "Did the revenue of Applied Materials for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 grow at or above 46.0% from the quarter ended October 26, 2025?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Applied Materials (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)", "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000006951.json" }, "ambiguity": "If Applied Materials has not filed by December 31, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level B)" } ], "callExpects": "yes", "format": "ladder", "group": "th047-amat-revenue-yoy", "threshold": 46, "direction": "above", "unit": "%", "think": { "baseRate": "Applied Materials's revenue growth from a year earlier was 24.8% for the quarter ended July 26, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.", "outsideView": "The year-earlier quarter is not on the same concept in the filings, so the rungs sit on the last print alone.", "wouldChange": "The results-calendar consensus for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 implies 51.5%, and the middle rung is centred there." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th047-t01", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/smic-advanced-node-diffusion/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 6, "at": "2026-10-22T03:37:01Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 20, "at": "2026-10-22T03:37:29Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th047-t02", "part": null, "thesis": 47, "slug": "smic-advanced-node-diffusion", "when": "November 12, 2026", "whenLabel": "Nov 12, 2026", "date": "2026-11-12", "precision": "day", "event": "Applied Materials, revenue growth from a year earlier, quarter ended October 25, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 53%.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "either", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T03:45:00Z", "callProbability": 47, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T03:45:00Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[1].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Compare the revenue that Applied Materials reports for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 with the quarter ended October 26, 2025, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if growth is at or above 53.0%; no if it is below 53.0%.", "question": "Did the revenue of Applied Materials for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 grow at or above 53.0% from the quarter ended October 26, 2025?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Applied Materials (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)", "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000006951.json" }, "ambiguity": "If Applied Materials has not filed by December 31, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level B)" } ], "callExpects": "either", "format": "ladder", "group": "th047-amat-revenue-yoy", "threshold": 53, "direction": "above", "unit": "%", "think": { "baseRate": "Applied Materials's revenue growth from a year earlier was 24.8% for the quarter ended July 26, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.", "outsideView": "The year-earlier quarter is not on the same concept in the filings, so the rungs sit on the last print alone.", "wouldChange": "The results-calendar consensus for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 implies 51.5%, and the middle rung is centred there." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th047-t02", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/smic-advanced-node-diffusion/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 2, "at": "2026-10-22T03:37:33Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 3, "at": "2026-10-22T03:37:41Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th047-t03", "part": null, "thesis": 47, "slug": "smic-advanced-node-diffusion", "when": "November 12, 2026", "whenLabel": "Nov 12, 2026", "date": "2026-11-12", "precision": "day", "event": "Applied Materials, revenue growth from a year earlier, quarter ended October 25, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 60%.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "no", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T03:45:00Z", "callProbability": 27, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T03:45:00Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[2].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "Compare the revenue that Applied Materials reports for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 with the quarter ended October 26, 2025, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if growth is at or above 60.0%; no if it is below 60.0%.", "question": "Did the revenue of Applied Materials for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 grow at or above 60.0% from the quarter ended October 26, 2025?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Applied Materials (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)", "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000006951.json" }, "ambiguity": "If Applied Materials has not filed by December 31, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level B)" } ], "callExpects": "no", "format": "ladder", "group": "th047-amat-revenue-yoy", "threshold": 60, "direction": "above", "unit": "%", "think": { "baseRate": "Applied Materials's revenue growth from a year earlier was 24.8% for the quarter ended July 26, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.", "outsideView": "The year-earlier quarter is not on the same concept in the filings, so the rungs sit on the last print alone.", "wouldChange": "The results-calendar consensus for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 implies 51.5%, and the middle rung is centred there." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th047-t03", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/smic-advanced-node-diffusion/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 2, "at": "2026-10-22T03:37:45Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 1, "at": "2026-10-22T03:37:49Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th047-t04", "part": null, "thesis": 47, "slug": "smic-advanced-node-diffusion", "when": "November 18, 2026", "whenLabel": "Nov 18, 2026", "date": "2026-11-18", "precision": "day", "event": "NVIDIA, revenue growth from a year earlier, quarter ended October 25, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 86%.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "yes", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T03:45:00Z", "callProbability": 62, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T03:45:00Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[3].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "earnings", "symbol": "NVDA", "rule": "Compare the revenue that Nvidia reports for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 with the quarter ended October 26, 2025, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if growth is at or above 86.0%; no if it is below 86.0%.", "question": "Did the revenue of Nvidia for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 grow at or above 86.0% from the quarter ended October 26, 2025?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Nvidia (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)", "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001045810.json" }, "ambiguity": "If Nvidia has not filed by December 11, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level B)" } ], "callExpects": "yes", "format": "ladder", "group": "th047-nvda-revenue-yoy", "threshold": 86, "direction": "above", "unit": "%", "think": { "baseRate": "NVIDIA's revenue growth from a year earlier was 105.9% for the quarter ended July 26, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.", "outsideView": "The year-earlier quarter is not on the same concept in the filings, so the rungs sit on the last print alone.", "wouldChange": "The results-calendar consensus for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 implies 90.9%, and the middle rung is centred there." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th047-t04", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/smic-advanced-node-diffusion/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 10, "at": "2026-10-22T03:37:53Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 35, "at": "2026-10-22T03:38:52Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th047-t05", "part": null, "thesis": 47, "slug": "smic-advanced-node-diffusion", "when": "November 18, 2026", "whenLabel": "Nov 18, 2026", "date": "2026-11-18", "precision": "day", "event": "NVIDIA, revenue growth from a year earlier, quarter ended October 25, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 91%.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "either", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T03:45:00Z", "callProbability": 48, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T03:45:00Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[4].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "earnings", "symbol": "NVDA", "rule": "Compare the revenue that Nvidia reports for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 with the quarter ended October 26, 2025, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if growth is at or above 91.0%; no if it is below 91.0%.", "question": "Did the revenue of Nvidia for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 grow at or above 91.0% from the quarter ended October 26, 2025?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Nvidia (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)", "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001045810.json" }, "ambiguity": "If Nvidia has not filed by December 11, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level B)" } ], "callExpects": "either", "format": "ladder", "group": "th047-nvda-revenue-yoy", "threshold": 91, "direction": "above", "unit": "%", "think": { "baseRate": "NVIDIA's revenue growth from a year earlier was 105.9% for the quarter ended July 26, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.", "outsideView": "The year-earlier quarter is not on the same concept in the filings, so the rungs sit on the last print alone.", "wouldChange": "The results-calendar consensus for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 implies 90.9%, and the middle rung is centred there." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th047-t05", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/smic-advanced-node-diffusion/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 4, "at": "2026-10-22T03:38:56Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 7, "at": "2026-10-22T03:39:13Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th047-t06", "part": null, "thesis": 47, "slug": "smic-advanced-node-diffusion", "when": "November 18, 2026", "whenLabel": "Nov 18, 2026", "date": "2026-11-18", "precision": "day", "event": "NVIDIA, revenue growth from a year earlier, quarter ended October 25, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 96%.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "pre", "callExpects": "no", "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)", "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T03:45:00Z", "callProbability": 30, "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T03:45:00Z", "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[5].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "earnings", "symbol": "NVDA", "rule": "Compare the revenue that Nvidia reports for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 with the quarter ended October 26, 2025, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if growth is at or above 96.0%; no if it is below 96.0%.", "question": "Did the revenue of Nvidia for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 grow at or above 96.0% from the quarter ended October 26, 2025?", "source": { "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Nvidia (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)", "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001045810.json" }, "ambiguity": "If Nvidia has not filed by December 11, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.", "specState": "approved", "specVersion": 1, "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22", "specHistory": [ { "version": 1, "date": "2026-10-22", "reason": "First specification.", "by": "Desk Editor (level B)" } ], "callExpects": "no", "format": "ladder", "group": "th047-nvda-revenue-yoy", "threshold": 96, "direction": "above", "unit": "%", "think": { "baseRate": "NVIDIA's revenue growth from a year earlier was 105.9% for the quarter ended July 26, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.", "outsideView": "The year-earlier quarter is not on the same concept in the filings, so the rungs sit on the last print alone.", "wouldChange": "The results-calendar consensus for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 implies 90.9%, and the middle rung is centred there." } }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th047-t06", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/smic-advanced-node-diffusion/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 6, "at": "2026-10-22T03:39:17Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 5, "at": "2026-10-22T03:39:23Z" } ], "readers": null }, { "id": "th047-t07", "part": null, "thesis": 47, "slug": "smic-advanced-node-diffusion", "when": "October 28, 2026", "whenLabel": "Oct 28, 2026", "date": "2026-10-28", "precision": "day", "event": "KLA, revenue growth from a year earlier, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 26%.", "status": "pending", "resultId": null, "sameAs": null, "stage": "open", "callExpects": null, "callExpectsBy": null, "callExpectsAt": null, "callProbability": null, "callProbabilityAt": null, "callProbabilityHistory": [], "source": { "kind": "thesis", "ref": "tests[6].date", "url": null }, "resolver": { "kind": "manual", "rule": "", "question": "", "source": null, "ambiguity": "", "specState": "pending" }, "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th047-t07", "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/smic-advanced-node-diffusion/#tests", "resultUrl": null, "machines": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5", "p": 22, "at": "2026-10-22T03:39:29Z" }, { "model": "deepseek-reasoner", "p": 65, "at": "2026-10-22T03:39:58Z" } ], "readers": null } ] }