{
  "generatedAt": "2026-10-22T16:04:11Z",
  "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/unleased-powered-shell-capacity-converts-to-leases/",
  "disclaimer": "Analysis and opinion, not investment advice.",
  "id": "unleased-powered-shell-capacity-converts-to-leases",
  "number": 81,
  "question": "Will at least one of Galaxy Digital's Helios 830 MW approved expansion or Hut 8's Beacon Point capacity be announced as contracted under a long-term lease with a named tenant by 2027-06-30?",
  "dek": "Approved, interconnected but unleased megawatts at energized-land owners convert into signed long-term leases, confirming that power position translates into contracted rent.",
  "family": "T05",
  "subthesis": "T05.01",
  "sector": "AI.DC",
  "subsectors": [
    "AI.DC.CAMPUS",
    "AI.DC.COLO",
    "AI.FIN.DCSTAB",
    "AI.POWER.BTM"
  ],
  "relatedParts": [],
  "approvedAt": "2026-10-22T05:42:55Z",
  "sectorName": "Data Centers & Physical Infrastructure",
  "api": "https://deepstack.ltd/api/v1/theses/unleased-powered-shell-capacity-converts-to-leases.json",
  "sides": [
    {
      "id": "yes",
      "label": "Energized land and powered shells earn rent",
      "summary": "A multi-gigawatt AI power shortfall makes approved, interconnected sites the binding constraint, so tenants bid for whatever energized capacity exists. Unleased expansion capacity is contracted at premium NOI per MW, converting discounted pipeline option value into contracted cash flow. Daniel Romero describes turning secured power into long-term contracted cash flow with tenants covering operating expenses, and Horizon Kinetics argues owners of scarce power, water and land positions collect rents for a long duration on multi-decade leases.",
      "voices": [
        {
          "name": "Daniel Romero",
          "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/daniel-romero/",
          "claim": "Romero's data-center holdings follow the same model: turn secured power into long-term contracted cash flow with tenants covering operating expenses, finance construction at project level (Hut 8's second major project was financed at better terms…",
          "date": "2026-08-01",
          "url": "https://hypertechinvest.com/p/start-here-every-investment-thesis"
        },
        {
          "name": "Horizon Kinetics",
          "entity": null,
          "claim": "Because data centers require overlapping local access to power, water and land, and because these campuses sign multi-decade leases, owners of such scarce resources collect rents and fees for a long duration without bearing the capital spending…",
          "date": "2026-01-01",
          "url": "https://fiscal.ai/fund-letters/horizon-kinetics-q4-2025-fscl_document_6HGE2ERC713"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "no",
      "label": "Powered shells stay unleased past mid-2027",
      "summary": "Lease spreads are set by tenant credit and term in a market with no Class A/B/C data center shorthand and few comps for stale assets, so flexible and single-purpose buildings price roughly alike while recovery risk concentrates in purpose-built remote campuses like inflexible shells with few alternative uses. This recovery risk suggests Helios and Beacon Point expansion capacity can remain uncontracted rather than quickly converting to signed leases. It would show first if expansion capacity remains unleased through mid-2027 with management language shifting from 'process' to 'evaluating alternatives'.",
      "voices": [
        {
          "name": "JunkBondInvestor",
          "entity": "https://deepstack.ltd/people/junkbondinvestor/",
          "claim": "Because the lease says nothing about whether the shell survives the technology cycle, two facilities look identical on a screen; the inflexible one has few alternative uses and its only natural buyer wants precisely what it already is, so value can…",
          "date": "2026-07-06",
          "url": "https://www.junkbondinvestor.com/p/credit-weekly-the-residual-may-be"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "tests": [
    {
      "id": "th081-t01",
      "part": null,
      "thesis": 81,
      "slug": "unleased-powered-shell-capacity-converts-to-leases",
      "when": "October 28, 2026",
      "whenLabel": "Oct 28, 2026",
      "date": "2026-10-28",
      "precision": "day",
      "event": "Equinix, long-term debt growth from a year earlier, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 8%.",
      "status": "pending",
      "resultId": null,
      "sameAs": null,
      "stage": "pre",
      "callExpects": "yes",
      "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level A)",
      "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z",
      "callProbability": 78,
      "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z",
      "callProbabilityHistory": [],
      "source": {
        "kind": "thesis",
        "ref": "tests[0].date",
        "url": null
      },
      "resolver": {
        "kind": "manual",
        "rule": "Compare the long-term debt that Equinix reports at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 with the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2025, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if growth is at or above 8.0%; no if it is below 8.0%.",
        "question": "Did the long-term debt of Equinix at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 grow at or above 8.0% from the quarter ended September 30, 2025?",
        "source": {
          "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Equinix (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)",
          "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001101239.json"
        },
        "ambiguity": "If Equinix has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.",
        "specState": "approved",
        "specVersion": 1,
        "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22",
        "specHistory": [
          {
            "version": 1,
            "date": "2026-10-22",
            "reason": "First specification.",
            "by": "Desk Editor (level A)"
          }
        ],
        "callExpects": "yes",
        "format": "ladder",
        "group": "th081-eqix-debt-yoy",
        "threshold": 8,
        "direction": "above",
        "unit": "%",
        "think": {
          "baseRate": "Equinix's long-term debt growth from a year earlier was 10.0% at the end of the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.",
          "outsideView": "The year-earlier quarter is not on the same concept in the filings, so the rungs sit on the last print alone.",
          "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading."
        }
      },
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th081-t01",
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/unleased-powered-shell-capacity-converts-to-leases/#tests",
      "resultUrl": null,
      "machines": [
        {
          "model": "claude-opus-5",
          "p": 72,
          "at": "2026-10-22T06:56:13Z"
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        {
          "model": "deepseek-reasoner",
          "p": 61,
          "at": "2026-10-22T06:56:31Z"
        }
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      "readers": null
    },
    {
      "id": "th081-t02",
      "part": null,
      "thesis": 81,
      "slug": "unleased-powered-shell-capacity-converts-to-leases",
      "when": "October 28, 2026",
      "whenLabel": "Oct 28, 2026",
      "date": "2026-10-28",
      "precision": "day",
      "event": "Equinix, long-term debt growth from a year earlier, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 12%.",
      "status": "pending",
      "resultId": null,
      "sameAs": null,
      "stage": "pre",
      "callExpects": "either",
      "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level A)",
      "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z",
      "callProbability": 52,
      "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z",
      "callProbabilityHistory": [],
      "source": {
        "kind": "thesis",
        "ref": "tests[1].date",
        "url": null
      },
      "resolver": {
        "kind": "manual",
        "rule": "Compare the long-term debt that Equinix reports at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 with the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2025, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if growth is at or above 12.0%; no if it is below 12.0%.",
        "question": "Did the long-term debt of Equinix at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 grow at or above 12.0% from the quarter ended September 30, 2025?",
        "source": {
          "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Equinix (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)",
          "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001101239.json"
        },
        "ambiguity": "If Equinix has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.",
        "specState": "approved",
        "specVersion": 1,
        "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22",
        "specHistory": [
          {
            "version": 1,
            "date": "2026-10-22",
            "reason": "First specification.",
            "by": "Desk Editor (level A)"
          }
        ],
        "callExpects": "either",
        "format": "ladder",
        "group": "th081-eqix-debt-yoy",
        "threshold": 12,
        "direction": "above",
        "unit": "%",
        "think": {
          "baseRate": "Equinix's long-term debt growth from a year earlier was 10.0% at the end of the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.",
          "outsideView": "The year-earlier quarter is not on the same concept in the filings, so the rungs sit on the last print alone.",
          "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading."
        }
      },
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th081-t02",
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/unleased-powered-shell-capacity-converts-to-leases/#tests",
      "resultUrl": null,
      "machines": [
        {
          "model": "claude-opus-5",
          "p": 60,
          "at": "2026-10-22T06:56:39Z"
        },
        {
          "model": "deepseek-reasoner",
          "p": 42,
          "at": "2026-10-22T06:56:54Z"
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      ],
      "readers": null
    },
    {
      "id": "th081-t03",
      "part": null,
      "thesis": 81,
      "slug": "unleased-powered-shell-capacity-converts-to-leases",
      "when": "October 28, 2026",
      "whenLabel": "Oct 28, 2026",
      "date": "2026-10-28",
      "precision": "day",
      "event": "Equinix, long-term debt growth from a year earlier, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 16%.",
      "status": "pending",
      "resultId": null,
      "sameAs": null,
      "stage": "pre",
      "callExpects": "no",
      "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level A)",
      "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z",
      "callProbability": 27,
      "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z",
      "callProbabilityHistory": [],
      "source": {
        "kind": "thesis",
        "ref": "tests[2].date",
        "url": null
      },
      "resolver": {
        "kind": "manual",
        "rule": "Compare the long-term debt that Equinix reports at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 with the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2025, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if growth is at or above 16.0%; no if it is below 16.0%.",
        "question": "Did the long-term debt of Equinix at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 grow at or above 16.0% from the quarter ended September 30, 2025?",
        "source": {
          "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Equinix (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)",
          "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001101239.json"
        },
        "ambiguity": "If Equinix has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.",
        "specState": "approved",
        "specVersion": 1,
        "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22",
        "specHistory": [
          {
            "version": 1,
            "date": "2026-10-22",
            "reason": "First specification.",
            "by": "Desk Editor (level A)"
          }
        ],
        "callExpects": "no",
        "format": "ladder",
        "group": "th081-eqix-debt-yoy",
        "threshold": 16,
        "direction": "above",
        "unit": "%",
        "think": {
          "baseRate": "Equinix's long-term debt growth from a year earlier was 10.0% at the end of the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.",
          "outsideView": "The year-earlier quarter is not on the same concept in the filings, so the rungs sit on the last print alone.",
          "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading."
        }
      },
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th081-t03",
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/unleased-powered-shell-capacity-converts-to-leases/#tests",
      "resultUrl": null,
      "machines": [
        {
          "model": "claude-opus-5",
          "p": 40,
          "at": "2026-10-22T06:56:58Z"
        },
        {
          "model": "deepseek-reasoner",
          "p": 22,
          "at": "2026-10-22T06:57:14Z"
        }
      ],
      "readers": null
    },
    {
      "id": "th081-t04",
      "part": null,
      "thesis": 81,
      "slug": "unleased-powered-shell-capacity-converts-to-leases",
      "when": "November 3, 2026",
      "whenLabel": "Nov 3, 2026",
      "date": "2026-11-03",
      "precision": "day",
      "event": "Eaton, long-term debt as a share of the quarter's revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 200%.",
      "status": "pending",
      "resultId": null,
      "sameAs": null,
      "stage": "pre",
      "callExpects": "yes",
      "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)",
      "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z",
      "callProbability": 72,
      "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z",
      "callProbabilityHistory": [],
      "source": {
        "kind": "thesis",
        "ref": "tests[3].date",
        "url": null
      },
      "resolver": {
        "kind": "manual",
        "rule": "Divide the long-term debt that Eaton reports at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 by the revenue it reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 200.0%; no if it is below 200.0%.",
        "question": "Did the long-term debt of Eaton at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 200.0% of its revenue for the quarter?",
        "source": {
          "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Eaton (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)",
          "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001551182.json"
        },
        "ambiguity": "If Eaton has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.",
        "specState": "approved",
        "specVersion": 1,
        "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22",
        "specHistory": [
          {
            "version": 1,
            "date": "2026-10-22",
            "reason": "First specification.",
            "by": "Desk Editor (level B)"
          }
        ],
        "callExpects": "yes",
        "format": "ladder",
        "group": "th081-etn-debt-to-revenue",
        "threshold": 200,
        "direction": "above",
        "unit": "%",
        "think": {
          "baseRate": "Eaton's long-term debt as a share of the quarter's revenue was 217.1% at the end of the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.",
          "outsideView": "A year earlier, at the end of the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 140.7%, so the rungs sit on the last print.",
          "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading."
        }
      },
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th081-t04",
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/unleased-powered-shell-capacity-converts-to-leases/#tests",
      "resultUrl": null,
      "machines": [
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          "model": "claude-opus-5",
          "p": 8,
          "at": "2026-10-22T06:57:19Z"
        },
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          "model": "deepseek-reasoner",
          "p": 5,
          "at": "2026-10-22T06:57:26Z"
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      ],
      "readers": null
    },
    {
      "id": "th081-t05",
      "part": null,
      "thesis": 81,
      "slug": "unleased-powered-shell-capacity-converts-to-leases",
      "when": "November 3, 2026",
      "whenLabel": "Nov 3, 2026",
      "date": "2026-11-03",
      "precision": "day",
      "event": "Eaton, long-term debt as a share of the quarter's revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 240%.",
      "status": "pending",
      "resultId": null,
      "sameAs": null,
      "stage": "pre",
      "callExpects": "no",
      "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)",
      "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z",
      "callProbability": 41,
      "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z",
      "callProbabilityHistory": [],
      "source": {
        "kind": "thesis",
        "ref": "tests[4].date",
        "url": null
      },
      "resolver": {
        "kind": "manual",
        "rule": "Divide the long-term debt that Eaton reports at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 by the revenue it reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 240.0%; no if it is below 240.0%.",
        "question": "Did the long-term debt of Eaton at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 240.0% of its revenue for the quarter?",
        "source": {
          "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Eaton (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)",
          "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001551182.json"
        },
        "ambiguity": "If Eaton has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.",
        "specState": "approved",
        "specVersion": 1,
        "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22",
        "specHistory": [
          {
            "version": 1,
            "date": "2026-10-22",
            "reason": "First specification.",
            "by": "Desk Editor (level B)"
          }
        ],
        "callExpects": "no",
        "format": "ladder",
        "group": "th081-etn-debt-to-revenue",
        "threshold": 240,
        "direction": "above",
        "unit": "%",
        "think": {
          "baseRate": "Eaton's long-term debt as a share of the quarter's revenue was 217.1% at the end of the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.",
          "outsideView": "A year earlier, at the end of the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 140.7%, so the rungs sit on the last print.",
          "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading."
        }
      },
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th081-t05",
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/unleased-powered-shell-capacity-converts-to-leases/#tests",
      "resultUrl": null,
      "machines": [
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          "model": "claude-opus-5",
          "p": 7,
          "at": "2026-10-22T06:57:30Z"
        },
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          "model": "deepseek-reasoner",
          "p": 3,
          "at": "2026-10-22T06:57:36Z"
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      ],
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    },
    {
      "id": "th081-t06",
      "part": null,
      "thesis": 81,
      "slug": "unleased-powered-shell-capacity-converts-to-leases",
      "when": "November 3, 2026",
      "whenLabel": "Nov 3, 2026",
      "date": "2026-11-03",
      "precision": "day",
      "event": "Eaton, long-term debt as a share of the quarter's revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 280%.",
      "status": "pending",
      "resultId": null,
      "sameAs": null,
      "stage": "pre",
      "callExpects": "no",
      "callExpectsBy": "Desk Editor (level B)",
      "callExpectsAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z",
      "callProbability": 20,
      "callProbabilityAt": "2026-10-22T08:14:29Z",
      "callProbabilityHistory": [],
      "source": {
        "kind": "thesis",
        "ref": "tests[5].date",
        "url": null
      },
      "resolver": {
        "kind": "manual",
        "rule": "Divide the long-term debt that Eaton reports at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 by the revenue it reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 280.0%; no if it is below 280.0%.",
        "question": "Did the long-term debt of Eaton at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 280.0% of its revenue for the quarter?",
        "source": {
          "label": "SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Eaton (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)",
          "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001551182.json"
        },
        "ambiguity": "If Eaton has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.",
        "specState": "approved",
        "specVersion": 1,
        "specUpdatedOn": "2026-10-22",
        "specHistory": [
          {
            "version": 1,
            "date": "2026-10-22",
            "reason": "First specification.",
            "by": "Desk Editor (level B)"
          }
        ],
        "callExpects": "no",
        "format": "ladder",
        "group": "th081-etn-debt-to-revenue",
        "threshold": 280,
        "direction": "above",
        "unit": "%",
        "think": {
          "baseRate": "Eaton's long-term debt as a share of the quarter's revenue was 217.1% at the end of the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.",
          "outsideView": "A year earlier, at the end of the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 140.7%, so the rungs sit on the last print.",
          "wouldChange": "A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading."
        }
      },
      "url": "https://deepstack.ltd/docket/#test-th081-t06",
      "storyUrl": "https://deepstack.ltd/theses/unleased-powered-shell-capacity-converts-to-leases/#tests",
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          "p": 11,
          "at": "2026-10-22T06:57:44Z"
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          "p": 5,
          "at": "2026-10-22T06:58:02Z"
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}