Did the combined depreciation and amortization of Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 grow faster from the year-earlier quarter than their combined operating income?
Sum depreciation and amortization, and sum operating income, for the four companies for the September quarter of 2026 and of 2025, from each release or 10-Q. The answer is yes if the year-over-year growth rate of depreciation is above the rate of operating income; no if it is equal or below. A change to server useful lives disclosed in the same filings is DeepStack's reading into the Result, not the answer.
If the source is late or silent: If any of the four has not reported by November 7, 2026, or restates the year-earlier quarter, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.
If no
Still renting at January prices
Says GPUs run hot with still-early AI adoption, suggesting operating income growth can keep pace with rising depreciation.
If yes
A model, not a price
Argues chipmakers' pricing stamina claims clash with the depreciation realities lenders actually face, implying depreciation outpaces profit.
50%
NoYes
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The case · 6 people · 2 minutes
Still renting at January prices3 people argue noA model, not a price3 people argue yes
Tae Kim believes that if OpenAI were public, its stock would have gapped up 30% or more on hitting $70 billion in ARR, a blowout versus expectations on the level of Nvidia in May 2023, and that the figure proves his August report that OpenAI's ARR…
Kakashii calculates that Nvidia's plan to ship over 10 million chips of Blackwell and Rubin by the end of 2026 implies a total required power of roughly 17 to 23 GW, averaging around 20 GW, and questions whether enough data centers are under…
Strongest against the CallDavid George · Sep 30
GPUs are already running hot even while the data indicates it's still very early in mature AI adoption and utilization.
What would change the Call
The year-over-year growth rates of combined depreciation and amortization versus combined operating income in the September 2026 filings.
The Call · Part 10 · A model, not a price
The market is not cheap. It is capitalizing AI earnings before anyone knows who owns them.
3 models ran this one. Their numbers and reasons appear after you lock yours.
The Part
The Bubble Is in the Denominator
The S&P 500 looks cheaper because profits surged. But those profits depend on AI spending, chip values and debt that may be inflating the denominator while raising the discount rate.