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AI financing · Part 10 · settles Jul 12 · 262 days

Will the TSP C Fund close above $126.1817 on any business day from October 13, 2026 through July 12, 2027?

How it settles

Yes if any C Fund daily closing share price from October 13, 2026 through July 12, 2027 on the plan's share price history is above 126.1817 dollars. Thrift Savings Plan, share price history of the C Fund (daily closing share prices, tsp.gov)

The exact question and the full rule

Does the C Fund of the Thrift Savings Plan, the federal employees' S&P 500 index fund, close above $126.1817, its highest share price through October 12, 2026 (set on October 6, 2026), on any business day from October 13, 2026 through July 12, 2027?

Read the C Fund's daily share prices from October 13, 2026 through July 12, 2027 in the plan's share price history. The answer is yes if any of them is above $126.1817, the highest close through October 12, 2026 (October 6; the plan posted no price on October 12, a federal holiday); no if every one is at or below it. The fund holds the stocks of the S&P 500 and reinvests their dividends, so its share price is the record the test reads.

If the source is late or silent: If the plan has not posted the prices through July 12, 2027 by July 19, 2027, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read, what was missing and the day of the next reading. A price the plan corrects is read as corrected.

a side

A model, not a price

Burry: chip pricing stamina stories clash with the depreciation reality lenders face, so gains are not assured.

a side

Still renting at January prices

George: GPUs run hot already even though AI adoption and utilization data show it is still very early, supporting further upside.

50%
NoYes

No position, no money. The crowd, the Call and the machines appear after you lock your number.

The case · 6 people · 2 minutes
A model, not a price0 people argue nounsided6Still renting at January prices0 people argue yes
A side · 3 people

A model, not a price

Kakashii calculates that Nvidia's plan to ship over 10 million chips of Blackwell and Rubin by the end of 2026 implies a total required power of roughly 17 to 23 GW, averaging around 20 GW, and questions whether enough data centers are under…

A side · 3 people

Still renting at January prices

Tae Kim believes that if OpenAI were public, its stock would have gapped up 30% or more on hitting $70 billion in ARR, a blowout versus expectations on the level of Nvidia in May 2023, and that the figure proves his August report that OpenAI's ARR…

Strongest against the CallDavid George · Sep 30

GPUs are already running hot even while the data indicates it's still very early in mature AI adoption and utilization.

What would change the Call
  • A daily close of the C Fund above $126.1817 on any business day in the window would flip this to yes.
The Call · Part 10 · A model, not a price

The market is not cheap. It is capitalizing AI earnings before anyone knows who owns them.

The dossier · 5 minutes
The machines' reasons

3 models ran this one. Their numbers and reasons appear after you lock yours.

The Part

The Bubble Is in the Denominator

The S&P 500 looks cheaper because profits surged. But those profits depend on AI spending, chip values and debt that may be inflating the denominator while raising the discount rate.

Chart: Run the denominator · Data Desk