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Power & grid · Part 13 · settles Feb 22 · 122 days

Will 2026 electric price hikes in PJM states beat other states by four points or more, while Texas rises less than the US?

How it settles

Yes if the median 2026 versus 2025 household price change across PJM's nine states exceeds the other 42 states' median by at least four percentage points, and Texas's change is below the national change, per EIA-861M. U.S. Energy Information Administration, EIA-861M monthly sales and revenue (first release of the month tested)

The exact question and the full rule

In the EIA-861M data for calendar 2026, as first published, is the median change in the average household price per kilowatt-hour across PJM's nine jurisdictions against calendar 2025 at least four percentage points above the median of the other 42, with Texas's change below the national change?

Same computation as p13-t01, over January to December 2026 against January to December 2025, with the national figure from the U.S. total in the same release. The answer is yes if the PJM median is at least 4.0 points above the median of the other 42 and Texas's change is below the national change; no if the gap is below 4.0 points.

If the source is late or silent: A gap of 4.0 points or more with Texas at or above the national change is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing. Data for December 2026 not published by March 31, 2027 is inconclusive. Figures are read as first published.

a side

The load pays its way

Expects no: costs land on whoever triggers them, so PJM households are not stuck covering grid build-out that isn't theirs.

If yes

The bill no state can shield

Expects yes: wholesale scarcity pricing hits every PJM bill directly and no state tariff can block it from showing up.

50%
NoYes

No position, no money. The crowd, the Call and the machines appear after you lock your number.

The case · 20 people · 2 minutes
The load pays its way0 people argue nounsided13The bill no state can shield7 people argue yes
Stronger if yes · 7 people

The bill no state can shield

The PJM capacity auction price for mid-Atlantic grid generation cleared at $269.92 per megawatt-day in July 2024, up 9x from the previous auction's $28.92, with all subsequent auctions clearing at administrative price caps.

A side · 7 people

The load pays its way

NRG argues that because the funding a large load customer must supply to bring new generation greatly exceeds the $50,000/MW security amount, concerns about whether the large load can meet financial commitments are easily satisfied under BYOG…

A side · 6 people

The plant is late

Reyk KnuhtsenJun 18 · 2 claims

ERCOT illustrates phantom demand: as of April 2026 it was assessing more than 410 GW of large-load interconnection requests, over 87% from datacenters, against a Texas all-time peak of about 85 GW, and they count 311 GW of that as phantom…

Strongest against the CallVirginia State Corporation Commission · Dec 15

Taking action specific to the PJM region appears to the VSCC to be both premature and potentially harmful, to the extent it conflicts with later guidance through the NOPR process, since the ANOPR already frames whether and how hybrid loads…

What would change the Call
  • The actual household price-per-kWh figures in the 2026 EIA-861M release for PJM states, other states, and Texas versus the US total.
The Call · Part 13 · The bill no state can shield

Data centers pay for their own wires. The higher capacity price their demand sets lands first on every PJM household's bill.

The dossier · 5 minutes
The machines' reasons

3 models ran this one. Their numbers and reasons appear after you lock yours.

The Part

The Ratepayer Pays First

Households in the nine jurisdictions PJM serves paid a median 11.7% more per kilowatt-hour over the year to July than the year before, against 5.6% elsewhere. Data center builders tell regulators they pay their own way. PJM's market monitor told them no state commission can shield households from the capacity price their demand sets.

Chart: Who pays the power bill first · Data Desk