Do the midpoints of the 2027 capital expenditure guidance that Alphabet, Amazon and Meta give with their fourth-quarter 2026 results sum to at least 25% more than the three companies' 2026 capital expenditures?
Each company's 2026 capital expenditures and its 2027 guidance are read as that company defines capital expenditures in the release or on the call that gives the guidance (for Meta, including principal payments on finance leases). A range counts at its midpoint; a single figure counts as given; a floor stated as at least or more than a figure counts at that figure. The answer is yes if the three 2027 figures sum to 1.25 times the three 2026 figures or more; no if the sum is below that. Microsoft gives no calendar-year figure and is not part of the test.
If the source is late or silent: If any of the three gives no 2027 figure by February 12, 2027, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; the next reading is that company's first-quarter 2027 results, by May 15, 2027. Guidance revised after the first statement does not reopen the test.
a side
The cash still covers it
Growing cloud demand lets these companies keep funding bigger budgets, so guidance jumps 25% or more over 2026.
If yes
The bill has moved to debt
Spending keeps climbing past what operations earn, and 2027 guidance reflects debt-funded growth of 25% or more.
50%
NoYes
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The case · 21 people · 2 minutes
The cash still covers it0 people argue nounsided14The bill has moved to debt7 people argue yes
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What would change the Call
The midpoint of each company's 2027 capital expenditure guidance compared with its 2026 actual spending would move the call.
The Call · Part 14
Microsoft pays for its build from its own cash. Alphabet and Meta spend most of theirs; Amazon spends more than its operations bring in.
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The Part
The Cash Arrives Unevenly
Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta spent 96 cents on property and equipment for each dollar of operating cash in the second quarter of 2026, up from 65 cents across 2025, by DeepStack's reading of SEC filings. Microsoft still pays from its own cash. Amazon spent $1.38 per dollar in the first half.
Chart: Cents of each operating dollar spent on the build · Data Desk