Will long-run inflation expectations average above 2.60% in March 2027?

Does the 5-year, 5-year forward inflation expectation rate (FRED series T5YIFR) average more than 2.60% over the days of March 2027 for which FRED reports a value?

Average the daily observations of T5YIFR dated March 1 through March 31, 2027 for which FRED reports a value, as FRED shows them on April 1, 2027, rounded to two decimals. The answer is yes if the average is above 2.60; no if it is 2.60 or below. The 10-year breakeven (T10YIE), surveys of inflation expectations and readings outside March are read alongside and do not decide the test.

If the source is late or silent: FRED posts the series about one business day later, so the observation for March 31, 2027 is due by April 1, 2027. A weekday FRED leaves blank because the U.S. bond market was closed is not missing and is left out of the average. Good Friday, March 26, 2027, is expected to be such a day: not a federal holiday, but a bond market close on the holiday schedule of the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, which FRED left blank in 2024 and 2025; the Result names every weekday left blank and why. Only a weekday of March on which the bond market was open and FRED still shows no value on April 8, 2027 is missing; if one is, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; the next reading is April 15, 2027. Observations FRED revises before the reading are read as revised; a later revision does not reopen the test.