Will the federal employees' S&P 500 retirement fund fall 10% or more from its own peak between October 16, 2026 and March 31, 2027?
Yes if the C Fund's daily closing share price falls to 90 percent or less of its highest close since October 16 2026, on any day through March 31 2027. Thrift Savings Plan, share price history of the C Fund (daily closing share prices, tsp.gov)
The exact question and the full rule
Does the C Fund of the Thrift Savings Plan, the federal employees' S&P 500 index fund, close at or below 90% of its highest closing share price since October 16, 2026, on any business day from October 16, 2026 through March 31, 2027?
Read the C Fund's daily share prices from October 16, 2026 through March 31, 2027 in the plan's share price history. For each day, take the highest price from October 16, 2026 through that day. The answer is yes if on any day the price is at or below 90% of that running high; no if it never is. The fund holds the stocks of the S&P 500 and reinvests their dividends, so its share price is the record the test reads; the index itself and the plan's other funds are read alongside and do not decide the test.
If the source is late or silent: If the plan has not posted the prices through March 31, 2027 by April 7, 2027, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; the next reading is April 14, 2027. A price the plan corrects is read as corrected.
The boom pays the rate
The boom keeps stocks and the C Fund climbing, so a 10% drop from its peak does not happen in this window.
The two shocks compound
Inflation and rate hikes stacking up finally hit stocks, dragging the C Fund down 10% or more from its high.
No position, no money. The crowd, the Call and the machines appear after you lock your number.