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AI financing · Part 16 · settles Nov 18 · 26 days

Will NVIDIA's guarantees note for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 show total maximum gross exposure above $108.5 billion?

How it settles

Yes if the total maximum gross exposure in NVIDIA's guarantees note at October 25, 2026 is above 108.5 billion dollars, read on SEC EDGAR. SEC EDGAR, NVIDIA Form 10-Q for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 (notes to the condensed consolidated financial statements, guarantees), CIK 0001045810

The exact question and the full rule

Does the guarantees note in NVIDIA's Form 10-Q for its fiscal quarter ended October 25, 2026 put the total maximum gross exposure under its guarantees above $108.5 billion?

Read the total maximum gross exposure the guarantees note gives, including guarantees the note says were signed after the quarter ended, as the table for July 26, 2026 did. The answer is yes if it is above $108.5 billion; no if it is $108.5 billion or below. If the note gives no total, the Result sums the maximum exposures the note lists and says that it summed them. The fair value of the guarantees and the phasing of the SB Energy guarantees are read alongside and do not decide the test.

If the source is late or silent: If the 10-Q is not public on EDGAR by December 15, 2026, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; the next reading is December 31, 2026. If the note gives no maximum exposure for a guarantee it describes, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; the next reading is NVIDIA's annual report on Form 10-K for fiscal 2027, by March 31, 2027.

a side

The loan is a bridge

Expects a lower or steady total, since end buyers are paying and outside capital is replacing the seller's own credit support.

If yes

The seller funds its demand

Expects the total to keep climbing, since NVIDIA's own guarantees are what holds up neocloud demand above market rates.

50%
NoYes

No position, no money. The crowd, the Call and the machines appear after you lock your number.

The case · 18 people · 2 minutes
The loan is a bridge0 people argue nounsided13The seller funds its demand5 people argue yes
Stronger if yes · 5 people

The seller funds its demand

Steve EismanSep 28 · 2 claims

Steve raises the concern that Nvidia had an insane quarter yet seventy percent of its receivables come from five accounts, and that much of the food chain depends on the health of Anthropic and OpenAI.

A side · 7 people

The loan is a bridge

Tae Kim worried about the sequence of information releases: had news of a slowdown in Anthropic's ARR growth from share losses to OpenAI come out before OpenAI's higher ARR figure, it could have spooked markets; now that the $70 billion number is…

A side · 6 people

Two labs carry the chain

Mia SilverioOct 5 · 2 claims

Anthropic's expected ~$2 trillion IPO valuation is not justified by its numbers, given that it would need $1.2 trillion in annual revenue within 10 years (per Aswath Damodaran) to justify that valuation while the entire current AI products and…

Strongest against the CallHugh Vuillier · Oct 8

With Anthropic and OpenAI delaying their IPO dates, there are increasing signs that the public equity market is running out of marginal buyers.

What would change the Call
  • New guarantees signed in or after the quarter, including any to SB Energy, would raise the summed total above the threshold.
The Call · Part 16 · The seller funds its demand

Nvidia's receivables ran 9% to 16% of sales above its own collection pace by July 26, 2026; five accounts owed 70% of them.

The dossier · 5 minutes
The machines' reasons

3 models ran this one. Their numbers and reasons appear after you lock yours.

The Part

The Seller Holds the Paper

Nvidia was owed 59.6 days of sales on July 26, 2026, against 45.4 in April, by DeepStack's arithmetic from its filings, and its guarantee table reached $108.5 billion from $3.5 billion, up to $105 billion of it signed in August for one Ohio campus and phased in from fiscal 2029. The buyers are real. Part of the money they pay with came from the seller.

Chart: Days of sales Nvidia is owed · Data Desk