Did the gross profit of Nvidia for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 come to at or above 75.0% of its revenue?
Divide the gross profit by the revenue that Nvidia reports for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 75.0%; no if it is below 75.0%.
If the source is late or silent: If Nvidia has not filed by December 11, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.
If no
Memory supply, not packaging, becomes the named constraint
Yes if Nvidia's chip mix and pricing hold margins at 75 percent of revenue or higher, matching its recent quarter.
If yes
Packaging, not memory, stays the named constraint
No if memory costs, discounts, or a cheaper product mix pull margins below 75 percent of revenue.
50%
NoYes
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The trail · since Oct 22
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The case · 6 people · 2 minutes
Memory supply, not packaging, becomes the named constraint2 people argue noPackaging, not memory, stays the named constraint4 people argue yes
Stronger if no · 2 people
Memory supply, not packaging, becomes the named constraint
Suppliers cut or under-invested after the COVID cycle while demand accelerated past forecasts, so capacity is scarce at critical points; headline capex is partly absorbed by price, duplicated sites and system coordination, and the firms that…
As shrinking transistors further becomes harder, the industry shifts to packaging-level innovations (CPO switches, HBM stacking, larger logic reticle sizes) to keep scaling compute, making advanced packaging the chokepoint through which further AI…
What would change the Call
A reported change in Nvidia's product mix, a one-time charge, or a shift in memory or packaging costs would move the call.
The Call · Thesis 13 · Memory supply, not packaging, becomes the named constraint
The house leans to "Memory supply, not packaging, becomes the named constraint".
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The thesis
Will HBM supply, rather than advanced packaging capacity, be named by Nvidia or TSMC as the primary accelerator supply constraint in any 2027 earnings call?
The binding constraint migrates from CoWoS interposer capacity to HBM stacking and DRAM supply, so the named bottleneck in 2027 is memory rather than packaging.