Semiconductors · Thesis 17 · settles Nov 18 · 25 days · rung 2/3

Did Nvidia's revenue grow at least 90 percent in the quarter ended October 25, 2026 versus a year earlier?

7 people · 7 claims2 sides2 machines

The other numbers are hidden until you lock yours. The readers, the machines and the Call are waiting.

The two sides

If no

Custom silicon takes share from merchant GPUs

Yes if demand for Nvidia GPUs keeps outrunning custom chips, pushing growth to 90 percent or more.

If yes

Nvidia's rails keep merchant GPU growth ahead of custom silicon

No if custom silicon from hyperscalers eats into merchant GPU demand, slowing growth below 90 percent.

How it settles

Yes if Nvidia's revenue for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 is at or above 90.0 percent higher than the quarter ended October 26, 2025, per its 10-Q or 10-K on SEC EDGAR. SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Nvidia (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)

The exact question and the full rule

Did the revenue of Nvidia for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 grow at or above 90.0% from the quarter ended October 26, 2025?

Compare the revenue that Nvidia reports for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 with the quarter ended October 26, 2025, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if growth is at or above 90.0%; no if it is below 90.0%.

If the source is late or silent: If Nvidia has not filed by December 11, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.

The case · 7 people · 2 minutes
Custom silicon takes share from merchant GPUs5 people argue noNvidia's rails keep merchant GPU growth ahead of custom silicon2 people argue yes
Stronger if no · 5 people

Custom silicon takes share from merchant GPUs

Kevin GeeJul 29

Gaonkar contrasts training, which she calls spiky, with inference, which she calls the annuity stream that models will be called on to do day in and day out, and argues that developments around Google's TPU show how workload-specific integrated…

Stronger if yes · 2 people

Nvidia's rails keep merchant GPU growth ahead of custom silicon

GaetanoMar 31

By investing in and integrating component suppliers like Marvell across custom silicon, scale-up networking, and photonic fabric, Nvidia ensures downstream AI infrastructure remains dependent on Nvidia rails regardless of customer preferences for…

The Call's side, the strongest voice against it and what would change it appear after you lock your number.

Open the dossierThe thesis
The dossier · 5 minutes
The machines' reasons

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The thesis

Will Nvidia's data center revenue growth rate fall below Broadcom's AI semiconductor revenue growth rate for four consecutive reported quarters ending on or before 2027-12-31?

Inference workloads migrating to hyperscaler-owned ASICs compress Nvidia's share of accelerator spend, so the custom-silicon supply chain grows materially faster than merchant GPU revenue.

Results Night · October 27, 20263d 10:20:133 questions settleFollow the night