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Hyperscalers & cloud · Thesis 34 · settles Nov 9 · 17 days

Will CoreWeave's capital spending stay at or above 215 percent of revenue next quarter?

How it settles

Yes if purchases of property and equipment divided by revenue in CoreWeave's 10-Q or 10-K for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 on SEC EDGAR is at or above 215.0 percent. SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of CoreWeave (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)

The exact question and the full rule

Did the purchases of property and equipment of CoreWeave for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 215.0% of its revenue?

Divide the purchases of property and equipment by the revenue that CoreWeave reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 215.0%; no if it is below 215.0%.

If the source is late or silent: If CoreWeave has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.

If no

The case against it

No if capital spending eases below 215 percent as revenue grows faster than new equipment purchases.

If yes

Return on invested capital falls

Yes if CoreWeave keeps building out data centers at a pace near last quarter's 249.4 percent of revenue.

50%
NoYes

No position, no money. The crowd, the Call and the machines appear after you lock your number.

The case · 7 people · 2 minutes
The case against it1 people argue noReturn on invested capital falls6 people argue yes
Stronger if no · 1 people

The case against it

Oguz ErkanJul 5

Hyperscaler capex turns ROI positive at roughly 1.7-1.8x revenue-to-depreciation ratio with 8% cost of capital, 30% operating margin, and 5-year depreciation. Currently at 1.2x with only 3-4% of global population paying for AI. As paying population…

Stronger if yes · 6 people

Return on invested capital falls

Stephen ClaphamSep 13

Rising capital cost against falling token prices

What would change the Call
  • The purchases of property and equipment and revenue figures in CoreWeave's 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 would move the call.
The Call · Thesis 34 · Return on invested capital falls

The house leans to "Return on invested capital falls".

The dossier · 5 minutes
The machines' reasons

2 models ran this one. Their numbers and reasons appear after you lock yours.

The thesis

Will the average trailing-twelve-month ROIC of Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta fall by the quarter nearest Q3 2027 versus the quarter nearest Q4 2024?

Massive AI capital spending is piling into balance sheets and depreciation schedules faster than AI revenue shows up, which could drag down returns on invested capital across the biggest cloud players.