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Hyperscalers & cloud · Thesis 34 · settles Dec 14 · 52 days

Will Oracle's operating cash flow hit at least 100 percent of revenue next quarter?

How it settles

Yes if net cash from operating activities divided by revenue in Oracle's 10-Q or 10-K for the quarter ended November 30, 2026 on SEC EDGAR is at or above 100.0 percent. SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Oracle (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)

The exact question and the full rule

Did the net cash from operating activities of Oracle for the quarter ended November 30, 2026 come to at or above 100.0% of its revenue?

Divide the net cash from operating activities by the revenue that Oracle reports for the quarter ended November 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 100.0%; no if it is below 100.0%.

If the source is late or silent: If Oracle has not filed by January 18, 2027, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.

If no

Return on invested capital falls

Yes if operating cash flow stays strong, continuing the pattern seen last quarter at 119.4 percent of revenue.

If yes

The case against it

No if cash flow drops below revenue itself, falling under the 100 percent mark.

50%
NoYes

No position, no money. The crowd, the Call and the machines appear after you lock your number.

The case · 7 people · 2 minutes
Return on invested capital falls6 people argue noThe case against it1 people argue yes
Stronger if no · 6 people

Return on invested capital falls

Stephen ClaphamSep 13

Rising capital cost against falling token prices

Stronger if yes · 1 people

The case against it

Oguz ErkanJul 5

Hyperscaler capex turns ROI positive at roughly 1.7-1.8x revenue-to-depreciation ratio with 8% cost of capital, 30% operating margin, and 5-year depreciation. Currently at 1.2x with only 3-4% of global population paying for AI. As paying population…

What would change the Call
  • The net cash from operating activities and revenue figures in Oracle's 10-Q for the quarter ended November 30, 2026 would move the call.
The Call · Thesis 34 · Return on invested capital falls

The house leans to "Return on invested capital falls".

The dossier · 5 minutes
The machines' reasons

2 models ran this one. Their numbers and reasons appear after you lock yours.

The thesis

Will the average trailing-twelve-month ROIC of Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta fall by the quarter nearest Q3 2027 versus the quarter nearest Q4 2024?

Massive AI capital spending is piling into balance sheets and depreciation schedules faster than AI revenue shows up, which could drag down returns on invested capital across the biggest cloud players.