Did the purchases of property and equipment of CoreWeave for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 220.0% of its revenue?
Divide the purchases of property and equipment by the revenue that CoreWeave reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 220.0%; no if it is below 220.0%.
If the source is late or silent: If CoreWeave has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.
If no
Returns on AI capital clear their cost of capital
Expects AI spending returns to clear their cost of capital, supporting continued heavy capital spending relative to revenue.
If yes
Returns on AI capital fail to clear their cost of capital
Expects rising build costs and falling token prices to squeeze returns, pressuring the company to slow capital spending relative to revenue.
50%
NoYes
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— CallOct 22
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The trail · since Oct 22
the Call 66, recorded Oct 22machines 2 runsreaders show from 5
The case · 6 people · 2 minutes
Returns on AI capital clear their cost of capital1 people argue noReturns on AI capital fail to clear their cost of capital5 people argue yes
Hyperscaler capex turns ROI positive at roughly 1.7-1.8x revenue-to-depreciation ratio with 8% cost of capital, 30% operating margin, and 5-year depreciation. Currently at 1.2x with only 3-4% of global population paying for AI. As paying population…
Stronger if yes · 5 people
Returns on AI capital fail to clear their cost of capital
Capex is spent now while the revenue it must earn depends on consumers and businesses absorbing an unprecedented amount of new AI spending within about four years; if that revenue arrives late or short, the return arithmetic falls below the cost of…
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The thesis
Will combined disclosed AI-attributed annualized revenue across the major US AI providers reach $300bn by the end of 2027 as reported in public filings or earnings disclosures?
AI revenue scales fast enough that the revenue-to-depreciation ratio on AI infrastructure rises toward the level where returns clear an 8-10% cost of capital, contradicting the value-destruction case that argues capex outruns the revenue needed to earn it back.