Did the net cash from operating activities of Oracle for the quarter ended November 30, 2026 come to at or above 112.0% of its revenue?
Divide the net cash from operating activities by the revenue that Oracle reports for the quarter ended November 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 112.0%; no if it is below 112.0%.
If the source is late or silent: If Oracle has not filed by January 18, 2027, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.
If no
Returns on AI capital fail to clear their cost of capital
No if rising capital spending, costs, or revenue growth outpace cash collections, pulling the ratio below 112 percent.
If yes
Returns on AI capital clear their cost of capital
Yes if cash from operations stays strong versus revenue, matching the roughly 119 percent rate booked the prior quarter.
50%
NoYes
No position, no money. The crowd, the Call and the machines appear after you lock your number.
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— CallOct 22
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The trail · since Oct 22
the Call 62, recorded Oct 22machines 2 runsreaders show from 5
The case · 6 people · 2 minutes
Returns on AI capital fail to clear their cost of capital5 people argue noReturns on AI capital clear their cost of capital1 people argue yes
Stronger if no · 5 people
Returns on AI capital fail to clear their cost of capital
Capex is spent now while the revenue it must earn depends on consumers and businesses absorbing an unprecedented amount of new AI spending within about four years; if that revenue arrives late or short, the return arithmetic falls below the cost of…
Hyperscaler capex turns ROI positive at roughly 1.7-1.8x revenue-to-depreciation ratio with 8% cost of capital, 30% operating margin, and 5-year depreciation. Currently at 1.2x with only 3-4% of global population paying for AI. As paying population…
What would change the Call
The operating cash flow and revenue figures in Oracle's 10-Q or 10-K for the quarter ended November 30, 2026 would move the call.
The Call · Thesis 36 · Returns on AI capital fail to clear their cost of capital
The house leans to "Returns on AI capital fail to clear their cost of capital".
2 models ran this one. Their numbers and reasons appear after you lock yours.
The thesis
Will combined disclosed AI-attributed annualized revenue across the major US AI providers reach $300bn by the end of 2027 as reported in public filings or earnings disclosures?
AI revenue scales fast enough that the revenue-to-depreciation ratio on AI infrastructure rises toward the level where returns clear an 8-10% cost of capital, contradicting the value-destruction case that argues capex outruns the revenue needed to earn it back.