guest
Memory & storage · Thesis 38 · settles Oct 29 · 6 days

Did Sandisk turn more than two thirds of its revenue into operating cash in the quarter ending early October 2026?

How it settles

Divide Sandisk's net cash from operations by its revenue for the quarter ended October 2, 2026, from its SEC filing; yes if the ratio is at least 68.0 percent. SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Sandisk (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)

The exact question and the full rule

Did the net cash from operating activities of Sandisk for the quarter ended October 2, 2026 come to at or above 68.0% of its revenue?

Divide the net cash from operating activities by the revenue that Sandisk reports for the quarter ended October 2, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 68.0%; no if it is below 68.0%.

If the source is late or silent: If Sandisk has not filed by November 18, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.

If no

The buildout overshoots demand

Expects yes if memory prices crash: scarcity-driven stockpiling inflates demand until capacity catches up and margins reverse hard.

If yes

Supply constraints keep prices from collapsing

Expects no price crash: shortages of chips, workers and power keep constraining supply, so prices and this cash ratio hold up.

50%
NoYes

No position, no money. The crowd, the Call and the machines appear after you lock your number.

The case · 5 people · 2 minutes
The buildout overshoots demand4 people argue noSupply constraints keep prices from collapsing1 people argue yes
Stronger if no · 4 people

The buildout overshoots demand

Ycg InvestmentsAug 22

Like the fiber optic buildout of the late 1990s, where multiplexing improvements caused capacity to exceed demand despite strong underlying demand growth, innovations in compute technology will generate such rapid supply expansion that prices and…

Stronger if yes · 1 people

Supply constraints keep prices from collapsing

Barry RitholtzAug 14

Ankur Crawford argues that if there were an infinite supply of chips, people and power, the market would already be in overcapacity because everyone would build as fast as they wanted; instead, the shortage of chips, workers like plumbers and…

What would change the Call
  • The net cash from operations and revenue figures Sandisk reports for the quarter ended October 2, 2026 in its SEC filing.
The Call · Thesis 38 · Supply constraints keep prices from collapsing

The house leans to "Supply constraints keep prices from collapsing".

The dossier · 5 minutes
The machines' reasons

2 models ran this one. Their numbers and reasons appear after you lock yours.

The thesis

Will DRAM contract or spot prices fall at least 30% from their 2026 peak at any point before December 31, 2027, per a dated public price series?

Memory scarcity pricing reverses into a glut, with DRAM prices falling 30%+ from peak as greenfield capacity and AI efficiency gains close the gap.