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Memory & storage · Thesis 38 · settles Dec 1 · 39 days · rung 1/3

Will Ambarella's operating cash flow for the quarter ending October 31, 2026 be at least negative 4 percent of its revenue?

How it settles

Yes if net cash from operating activities divided by revenue, as reported by Ambarella for the quarter ended October 31 2026 on SEC EDGAR, is at or above negative 4.0 percent. SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Ambarella (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)

The exact question and the full rule

Did the net cash from operating activities of Ambarella for the quarter ended October 31, 2026 come to at or above -4.0% of its revenue?

Divide the net cash from operating activities by the revenue that Ambarella reports for the quarter ended October 31, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above -4.0%; no if it is below -4.0%.

If the source is late or silent: If Ambarella has not filed by December 17, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.

If no

The buildout overshoots demand

Yes if cash use stays mild, similar to the roughly negative 0.2 percent rate seen the prior quarter.

If yes

Supply constraints keep prices from collapsing

No if cash outflows worsen beyond negative 4 percent of revenue.

50%
NoYes

No position, no money. The crowd, the Call and the machines appear after you lock your number.

The case · 5 people · 2 minutes
The buildout overshoots demand4 people argue noSupply constraints keep prices from collapsing1 people argue yes
Stronger if no · 4 people

The buildout overshoots demand

Ycg InvestmentsAug 22

Like the fiber optic buildout of the late 1990s, where multiplexing improvements caused capacity to exceed demand despite strong underlying demand growth, innovations in compute technology will generate such rapid supply expansion that prices and…

Stronger if yes · 1 people

Supply constraints keep prices from collapsing

Barry RitholtzAug 14

Ankur Crawford argues that if there were an infinite supply of chips, people and power, the market would already be in overcapacity because everyone would build as fast as they wanted; instead, the shortage of chips, workers like plumbers and…

What would change the Call
  • The operating cash flow and revenue figures in Ambarella's 10-Q or 10-K for the quarter ended October 31, 2026 would move the call.
The Call · Thesis 38 · Supply constraints keep prices from collapsing

The house leans to "Supply constraints keep prices from collapsing".

The dossier · 5 minutes
The machines' reasons

2 models ran this one. Their numbers and reasons appear after you lock yours.

The thesis

Will DRAM contract or spot prices fall at least 30% from their 2026 peak at any point before December 31, 2027, per a dated public price series?

Memory scarcity pricing reverses into a glut, with DRAM prices falling 30%+ from peak as greenfield capacity and AI efficiency gains close the gap.