Will Nvidia's revenue for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 grow at least 85.0 percent from a year earlier?
How it settles
Yes if Nvidia's revenue for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 divided by its revenue for the quarter ended October 26, 2025, as filed on SEC EDGAR, is at or above 85.0 percent higher. SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Nvidia (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)
The exact question and the full rule
Did the revenue of Nvidia for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 grow at or above 85.0% from the quarter ended October 26, 2025?
Compare the revenue that Nvidia reports for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 with the quarter ended October 26, 2025, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if growth is at or above 85.0%; no if it is below 85.0%.
If the source is late or silent: If Nvidia has not filed by December 11, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.
If no
US and China split into two AI markets
Yes if AI chip demand keeps surging, pushing Nvidia's year over year revenue growth to 85.0 percent or more.
If yes
The case against it
No if growth cools from the prior quarter's faster pace, leaving year over year revenue growth below 85.0 percent.
50%
NoYes
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The trail · since Oct 22
the Call 68, recorded Oct 22machines 2 runsreaders show from 5
The case · 5 people · 2 minutes
US and China split into two AI markets4 people argue noThe case against it1 people argue yes
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What would change the Call
A shift in data center GPU orders, export rules affecting China sales, or new supply constraints in Nvidia's filing would move growth past or below 85.0 percent.
The Call · Thesis 46 · US and China split into two AI markets
The house leans to "US and China split into two AI markets".
2 models ran this one. Their numbers and reasons appear after you lock yours.
The thesis
Will Chinese-made AI chips dominate new accelerator capacity in mainland China by 2027?
Export limits on advanced US chips and Beijing's push for homegrown silicon may be steering China onto its own compute stack, sidelining foreign accelerator makers.