Did the revenue of Nvidia for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 grow at or above 92.0% from the quarter ended October 26, 2025?
Compare the revenue that Nvidia reports for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 with the quarter ended October 26, 2025, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if growth is at or above 92.0%; no if it is below 92.0%.
If the source is late or silent: If Nvidia has not filed by December 11, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.
If no
US and China split into two AI markets
Yes if AI chip demand keeps surging and Nvidia's revenue growth matches or beats recent quarters' blistering pace.
If yes
The case against it
No if growth cools from export limits, competition, or tougher comparisons, landing below the 92 percent mark.
50%
NoYes
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The trail · since Oct 22
the Call 45, recorded Oct 22machines 2 runsreaders show from 5
The case · 5 people · 2 minutes
US and China split into two AI markets4 people argue noThe case against it1 people argue yes
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Once the manufacturing knowledge behind N+2 and N+3 is transferred to HLMC/Hua Hong and the same learning feeds accelerator programs, no single entity remains the bottleneck, so an entity-list approach aimed at SMIC alone stops controlling the…
What would change the Call
Nvidia's own quarterly revenue guidance given at its prior earnings call would move this number.
The Call · Thesis 46 · US and China split into two AI markets
The house leans to "US and China split into two AI markets".
2 models ran this one. Their numbers and reasons appear after you lock yours.
The thesis
Will Chinese-made AI chips dominate new accelerator capacity in mainland China by 2027?
Export limits on advanced US chips and Beijing's push for homegrown silicon may be steering China onto its own compute stack, sidelining foreign accelerator makers.