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Semiconductors · Thesis 49 · settles Nov 18 · 26 days · rung 3/3

Will Nvidia's gross profit for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 be at least 76 percent of its revenue?

How it settles

Yes if Nvidia's gross profit divided by its revenue for the quarter ended October 25 2026 is at least 76 percent, per its 10-Q or 10-K on SEC EDGAR. SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Nvidia (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)

The exact question and the full rule

Did the gross profit of Nvidia for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 come to at or above 76.0% of its revenue?

Divide the gross profit by the revenue that Nvidia reports for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 76.0%; no if it is below 76.0%.

If the source is late or silent: If Nvidia has not filed by December 11, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.

If no

Software margins hold or Nvidia's slips below 70%

No if margin stays below 76 percent, matching or trailing Nvidia's recent quarterly results.

If yes

Margin migrates to chips and power

Yes if gross margin reaches 76 percent or higher, slightly above Nvidia's recent reported level near 75 percent.

50%
NoYes

No position, no money. The crowd, the Call and the machines appear after you lock your number.

The case · 7 people · 2 minutes
Software margins hold or Nvidia's slips below 70%2 people argue noMargin migrates to chips and power5 people argue yes
Stronger if no · 2 people

Software margins hold or Nvidia's slips below 70%

Michael SpencerMay 28

As businesses spend more on AI tokens and evaluate suppliers on product execution and cost efficiency rather than raw model power, enterprises shift spending toward the provider with the best cost structure, product-market fit, and credibility.…

Stronger if yes · 5 people

Margin migrates to chips and power

Conestoga Capital Advisors LLCAug 22

Chipmakers and capital equipment providers serving AI infrastructure demands significantly outperform software companies, which face slower enterprise IT budgets, elongated sales cycles, and cautious spending by smaller businesses. Software has…

What would change the Call
  • Nvidia's 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR showing both gross profit and revenue for the quarter would settle this.
The Call · Thesis 49 · Margin migrates to chips and power

The house leans to "Margin migrates to chips and power".

The dossier · 5 minutes
The machines' reasons

2 models ran this one. Their numbers and reasons appear after you lock yours.

The thesis

Will large software firms' gross margins drop a point or more by Q3 2027 while Nvidia's stays at or above 70%?

The idea: AI inference costs are climbing faster than software revenue, squeezing software profitability while chipmakers keep their fat margins, moving profit upstream to silicon.