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Semiconductors · Thesis 49 · settles Nov 18 · 26 days · rung 2/3

Will Nvidia's revenue for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 be at least 90 percent higher than a year earlier?

How it settles

Yes if Nvidia's revenue for the quarter ended October 25 2026 is at least 90 percent higher than the quarter ended October 26 2025, per its 10-Q or 10-K on SEC EDGAR. SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Nvidia (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)

The exact question and the full rule

Did the revenue of Nvidia for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 grow at or above 90.0% from the quarter ended October 26, 2025?

Compare the revenue that Nvidia reports for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 with the quarter ended October 26, 2025, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if growth is at or above 90.0%; no if it is below 90.0%.

If the source is late or silent: If Nvidia has not filed by December 11, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.

If no

Software margins hold or Nvidia's slips below 70%

No if growth falls short of 90 percent, meaning demand or supply came in a bit below consensus expectations.

If yes

Margin migrates to chips and power

Yes if growth reaches 90 percent or more, close to what market consensus currently expects for this quarter.

50%
NoYes

No position, no money. The crowd, the Call and the machines appear after you lock your number.

The case · 7 people · 2 minutes
Software margins hold or Nvidia's slips below 70%2 people argue noMargin migrates to chips and power5 people argue yes
Stronger if no · 2 people

Software margins hold or Nvidia's slips below 70%

Michael SpencerMay 28

As businesses spend more on AI tokens and evaluate suppliers on product execution and cost efficiency rather than raw model power, enterprises shift spending toward the provider with the best cost structure, product-market fit, and credibility.…

Stronger if yes · 5 people

Margin migrates to chips and power

Conestoga Capital Advisors LLCAug 22

Chipmakers and capital equipment providers serving AI infrastructure demands significantly outperform software companies, which face slower enterprise IT budgets, elongated sales cycles, and cautious spending by smaller businesses. Software has…

What would change the Call
  • Nvidia's 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR showing the actual revenue for both quarters would settle this.
The Call · Thesis 49 · Margin migrates to chips and power

The house leans to "Margin migrates to chips and power".

The dossier · 5 minutes
The machines' reasons

2 models ran this one. Their numbers and reasons appear after you lock yours.

The thesis

Will large software firms' gross margins drop a point or more by Q3 2027 while Nvidia's stays at or above 70%?

The idea: AI inference costs are climbing faster than software revenue, squeezing software profitability while chipmakers keep their fat margins, moving profit upstream to silicon.