Semiconductors · Thesis 50 · settles Nov 12 · 19 days · rung 2/3

Did Applied Materials's revenue for the quarter ending October 25, 2026 grow at least 50 percent from a year earlier?

8 people · 8 claims2 sides2 machines

The other numbers are hidden until you lock yours. The readers, the machines and the Call are waiting.

The two sides

If no

IGV outperforms SOX as application value wins

No: growth comes in under 50 percent versus last year's quarter, even if sales still rise.

If yes

Margin migrates to chips and power

Yes: chipmaking equipment demand lifts revenue growth to at or above 50 percent versus the same quarter last year.

How it settles

Yes if Applied Materials's reported revenue for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 is at or above 50.0 percent higher than its revenue for the quarter ended October 26, 2025, on SEC EDGAR. SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Applied Materials (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)

The exact question and the full rule

Did the revenue of Applied Materials for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 grow at or above 50.0% from the quarter ended October 26, 2025?

Compare the revenue that Applied Materials reports for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 with the quarter ended October 26, 2025, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if growth is at or above 50.0%; no if it is below 50.0%.

If the source is late or silent: If Applied Materials has not filed by December 31, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.

The case · 8 people · 2 minutes
IGV outperforms SOX as application value wins2 people argue noMargin migrates to chips and power6 people argue yes
Stronger if no · 2 people

IGV outperforms SOX as application value wins

Michael SpencerMay 28

As businesses spend more on AI tokens and evaluate suppliers on product execution and cost efficiency rather than raw model power, enterprises shift spending toward the provider with the best cost structure, product-market fit, and credibility.…

Stronger if yes · 6 people

Margin migrates to chips and power

Conestoga Capital Advisors LLCAug 22

Chipmakers and capital equipment providers serving AI infrastructure demands significantly outperform software companies, which face slower enterprise IT budgets, elongated sales cycles, and cautious spending by smaller businesses. Software has…

The Call's side, the strongest voice against it and what would change it appear after you lock your number.

Open the dossierThe thesis
The dossier · 5 minutes
The machines' reasons

2 models ran this one. Their numbers and reasons appear after you lock yours.

The thesis

Will the PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) total return exceed the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (IGV) total return over the period 2026-01-01 to 2027-09-30?

Bottleneck rent at the silicon layer keeps semiconductor equity returns ahead of software equity returns through the AI capital cycle.

Results Night · October 27, 20263d 10:20:133 questions settleFollow the night