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Power & grid · Thesis 74 · settles Oct 28 · 5 days · rung 3/3

Will GE Vernova's operating lease liabilities grow by 24 percent or more over a year, as of Q3 2026?

How it settles

Yes if GE Vernova's operating lease liabilities at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026, on SEC EDGAR, are higher than a year earlier by twenty four percent or more. SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of GE Vernova (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)

The exact question and the full rule

Did the operating lease liabilities of GE Vernova at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 grow at or above 24.0% from the quarter ended September 30, 2025?

Compare the operating lease liabilities that GE Vernova reports at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 with the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2025, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if growth is at or above 24.0%; no if it is below 24.0%.

If the source is late or silent: If GE Vernova has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.

If no

Hyperscalers favor non-gas firm supply

No: growth continues at a moderate pace, similar to the roughly 11 percent seen the prior quarter.

If yes

Gas is the bridge fuel for AI load

Yes: a sharp pickup in new leased sites and equipment pushes growth well past recent quarters.

50%
NoYes

No position, no money. The crowd, the Call and the machines appear after you lock your number.

The case · 3 people · 2 minutes
Hyperscalers favor non-gas firm supply1 people argue noGas is the bridge fuel for AI load2 people argue yes
Stronger if no · 1 people

Hyperscalers favor non-gas firm supply

Michael SpykerNov 20

Because official forecasts have understated how much domestic gas demand (especially from data centers) would grow, LNG developers planned export capacity assuming ample surplus gas would remain available; as AI-driven demand materializes…

Stronger if yes · 2 people

Gas is the bridge fuel for AI load

DeepValue CapitalAug 14

AI infrastructure requires significant electricity, which is increasingly powered by natural gas as backup and baseload generation. Major financial institutions and tech companies are financing AI buildout, creating structural demand for natural gas.

What would change the Call
  • A new large lease signed or terminated, or a reclassification of lease liabilities, would move the growth rate shown.
The Call · Thesis 74 · Hyperscalers favor non-gas firm supply

The house leans to "Hyperscalers favor non-gas firm supply".

The dossier · 5 minutes
The machines' reasons

2 models ran this one. Their numbers and reasons appear after you lock yours.

The thesis

Will at least three major tech firms announce a new natural gas generation arrangement of 300 MW or more for US data centers between 2026-11-15 and 2027-12-31?

Hyperscalers themselves turn to dedicated gas generation at scale for near-term AI capacity, confirming gas as the practical bridge fuel despite stated clean-energy targets.