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Power & grid · Thesis 75 · settles Nov 9 · 17 days · rung 1/3

Will Constellation Energy spend 18 percent or more of its revenue on property and equipment in Q3 2026?

How it settles

Yes if Constellation Energy's purchases of property and equipment divided by its revenue, for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, on SEC EDGAR, is eighteen percent or more. SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Constellation Energy (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)

The exact question and the full rule

Did the purchases of property and equipment of Constellation Energy for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 18.0% of its revenue?

Divide the purchases of property and equipment by the revenue that Constellation Energy reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 18.0%; no if it is below 18.0%.

If the source is late or silent: If Constellation Energy has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.

If no

Chip and labor shortages are the binding constraint

No: spending eases below this share, even after a prior quarter reading of about 21 percent.

If yes

Interconnection capacity is the bottleneck

Yes: heavy grid and plant investment to meet data center power demand keeps spending high relative to revenue.

50%
NoYes

No position, no money. The crowd, the Call and the machines appear after you lock your number.

The case · 7 people · 2 minutes
Chip and labor shortages are the binding constraint1 people argue noInterconnection capacity is the bottleneck6 people argue yes
Stronger if no · 1 people

Chip and labor shortages are the binding constraint

Barry RitholtzAug 14

Ankur Crawford argues that if there were an infinite supply of chips, people and power, the market would already be in overcapacity because everyone would build as fast as they wanted; instead, the shortage of chips, workers like plumbers and…

Stronger if yes · 6 people

Interconnection capacity is the bottleneck

GaetanoSep 1

Hard constraints on power grid access and permitting make single large facilities infeasible, so hyperscalers distribute compute across multiple smaller buildings or campuses to reduce environmental footprint per site and ease permitting, even…

What would change the Call
  • A newly announced plant or grid project, or a one time asset sale changing revenue, would move the spending share shown.
The Call · Thesis 75 · Chip and labor shortages are the binding constraint

The house leans to "Chip and labor shortages are the binding constraint".

The dossier · 5 minutes
The machines' reasons

2 models ran this one. Their numbers and reasons appear after you lock yours.

The thesis

Will a major US hyperscaler attribute an AI capacity delay to power or grid interconnection between 2026-11-15 and 2027-12-31?

Grid interconnection and electrical-chain timing, not capital or chip availability, is the binding constraint, and hyperscalers will say so on the record as power-on dates slip.