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Power & grid · Thesis 76 · settles Nov 9 · 17 days · rung 3/3

Will Constellation Energy's capital spending hit 28 percent or more of its revenue in the quarter ending September 2026?

How it settles

Yes if purchases of property and equipment divided by revenue, as reported by Constellation Energy for the quarter ended September 30 2026 on SEC EDGAR, is 28.0 percent or higher. SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Constellation Energy (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)

The exact question and the full rule

Did the purchases of property and equipment of Constellation Energy for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 28.0% of its revenue?

Divide the purchases of property and equipment by the revenue that Constellation Energy reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 28.0%; no if it is below 28.0%.

If the source is late or silent: If Constellation Energy has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.

If no

The case against it

No: spending growth stays moderate, keeping the ratio well under the 28 percent mark.

If yes

Interconnection capacity is the bottleneck, and NVIDIA will say so

Yes: a major acceleration in capital projects, well above the prior quarter's 21.3 percent, pushes spending past 28 percent of revenue.

50%
NoYes

No position, no money. The crowd, the Call and the machines appear after you lock your number.

The case · 5 people · 2 minutes
The case against it1 people argue noInterconnection capacity is the bottleneck, and NVIDIA will say so4 people argue yes
Stronger if no · 1 people

The case against it

Barry RitholtzAug 14

Ankur Crawford argues that if there were an infinite supply of chips, people and power, the market would already be in overcapacity because everyone would build as fast as they wanted; instead, the shortage of chips, workers like plumbers and…

Stronger if yes · 4 people

Interconnection capacity is the bottleneck, and NVIDIA will say so

Daniel RomeroAug 28

As NVIDIA and other chip makers increase rack power density from tens of kW to hundreds of kW, grids, substations, transformers, and generation capacity that take multi-year timescales to build become the limiting factor. Compute performance…

What would change the Call
  • Only a sharp one-time increase in capital projects or a steep revenue decline would move the ratio up to 28 percent or more.
The Call · Thesis 76 · The case against it

The house leans to "The case against it".

The dossier · 5 minutes
The machines' reasons

2 models ran this one. Their numbers and reasons appear after you lock yours.

The thesis

Will NVIDIA report data-center revenue growth of less than 15% year-over-year in any fiscal quarter reported between 2026-11-15 and 2027-12-31 while simultaneously citing customer power/grid availability as a factor?

Power and interconnection scarcity may bind before chip supply does, potentially slowing GPU absorption in ways that show up as decelerating NVIDIA data-center revenue, if the company attributes any slowdown to siting and energization.