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Power & grid · Thesis 77 · settles Nov 9 · 17 days · rung 3/3

Will Constellation Energy's capital spending hit 27 percent or more of its revenue in the quarter ending September 2026?

How it settles

Yes if purchases of property and equipment divided by revenue, as reported by Constellation Energy for the quarter ended September 30 2026 on SEC EDGAR, is 27.0 percent or higher. SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Constellation Energy (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)

The exact question and the full rule

Did the purchases of property and equipment of Constellation Energy for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 27.0% of its revenue?

Divide the purchases of property and equipment by the revenue that Constellation Energy reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 27.0%; no if it is below 27.0%.

If the source is late or silent: If Constellation Energy has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.

If no

Chips and labor, not capacity additions, are the binding constraint

No: spending growth stays moderate, keeping the ratio well under the 27 percent mark.

If yes

Interconnection capacity is the bottleneck

Yes: a major acceleration in capital projects, well above the prior quarter's 21.3 percent, pushes spending past 27 percent of revenue.

50%
NoYes

No position, no money. The crowd, the Call and the machines appear after you lock your number.

The case · 5 people · 2 minutes
Chips and labor, not capacity additions, are the binding constraint1 people argue noInterconnection capacity is the bottleneck4 people argue yes
Stronger if no · 1 people

Chips and labor, not capacity additions, are the binding constraint

Barry RitholtzAug 14

Ankur Crawford argues that if there were an infinite supply of chips, people and power, the market would already be in overcapacity because everyone would build as fast as they wanted; instead, the shortage of chips, workers like plumbers and…

Stronger if yes · 4 people

Interconnection capacity is the bottleneck

Steve EismanJul 20

Large-scale AI deployment requires massive electrical capacity, and power generation cannot keep pace with growth demands from data centers, onshoring, and grid aging, making energy availability the limiting factor rather than processor…

What would change the Call
  • Only a sharp one-time increase in capital projects or a steep revenue decline would move the ratio up to 27 percent or more.
The Call · Thesis 77 · Chips and labor, not capacity additions, are the binding constraint

The house leans to "Chips and labor, not capacity additions, are the binding constraint".

The dossier · 5 minutes
The machines' reasons

2 models ran this one. Their numbers and reasons appear after you lock yours.

The thesis

Will US annual electricity sales to the commercial sector plus reported data center load growth, per EIA, show data-center-driven demand growth outpacing net generating capacity additions in 2027?

US net firm capacity additions will fall short of incremental data center load growth in 2027, confirming the grid as the system-level bottleneck on AI buildout.