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AI financing · Thesis 86 · settles Nov 23 · 31 days · rung 2/3

Will Fluence Energy's operating lease liabilities grow 80 percent or more in a year through September 30 2026?

How it settles

Yes if operating lease liabilities for the quarter ended September 30 2026 are 80 percent or more above the quarter ended September 30 2025, per Fluence Energy's 10-Q or 10-K on SEC EDGAR. SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Fluence Energy (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)

The exact question and the full rule

Did the operating lease liabilities of Fluence Energy at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 grow at or above 80.0% from the quarter ended September 30, 2025?

Compare the operating lease liabilities that Fluence Energy reports at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 with the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2025, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if growth is at or above 80.0%; no if it is below 80.0%.

If the source is late or silent: If Fluence Energy has not filed by December 7, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.

If no

Nvidia avoids consolidation and major impairments

No: lease growth slows or stays steady, leaving the year-over-year increase in lease liabilities under 80 percent.

If yes

Retained risk forces consolidation or a multi-billion writedown

Yes: new site leases keep piling on, pushing the year-over-year increase in lease liabilities to 80 percent or more.

50%
NoYes

No position, no money. The crowd, the Call and the machines appear after you lock your number.

The case · 3 people · 2 minutes
Nvidia avoids consolidation and major impairments1 people argue noRetained risk forces consolidation or a multi-billion writedown2 people argue yes
Stronger if no · 1 people

Nvidia avoids consolidation and major impairments

JunkBondInvestorApr 10

Management intends to establish special purpose vehicles backed by fully executed ESAs to raise non-recourse debt for project-level capex, keeping approximately $3.2bn of the $4.5bn buildout capex off the parent balance sheet. This structure is…

Stronger if yes · 2 people

Retained risk forces consolidation or a multi-billion writedown

Prof G MarketsAug 3

Off-balance-sheet AI leverage routed to household savings

What would change the Call
  • The operating lease liabilities figure Fluence Energy reports for the quarter ended September 30 2026 versus September 30 2025 would move the call.
The Call · Thesis 86 · Nvidia avoids consolidation and major impairments

The house leans to "Nvidia avoids consolidation and major impairments".

The dossier · 5 minutes
The machines' reasons

2 models ran this one. Their numbers and reasons appear after you lock yours.

The thesis

Will Nvidia consolidate a neocloud or data center SPV, or record at least $2bn in cumulative related impairments and credit losses, by fiscal year ending January 2028?

The risks and rewards of neocloud buildouts effectively sit with Nvidia, so accounting consolidation or a multi-billion-dollar loss recognition will reveal the retained exposure.