Did the research and development expense of Microsoft for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 11.9% of its revenue?
Divide the research and development expense by the revenue that Microsoft reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 11.9%; no if it is below 11.9%.
If the source is late or silent: If Microsoft has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.
If no
Cost per token falls faster than price
Expects AI inference costs to keep falling faster than prices, supporting steady or higher research spending as a share of revenue at or above 11.9 percent.
If yes
The case against it
Expects tight compute supply and falling token prices to squeeze margins, holding research spending share of revenue below 11.9 percent.
50%
NoYes
No position, no money. The crowd, the Call and the machines appear after you lock your number.
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— CallOct 22
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The trail · since Oct 22
the Call 20, recorded Oct 22machines 2 runsreaders show from 5
The case · 7 people · 2 minutes
Cost per token falls faster than price2 people argue noThe case against it5 people argue yes
As inference costs decline through hardware improvements, software optimization, or volume leverage, a vendor can either cut prices or expand margins. Anthropic is expanding margins: compute spend per revenue dollar falling from 0.71 to 0.56 while…
While compute supply remains constrained, the price AI providers can charge per token is falling, squeezing the spread between input costs and revenue and potentially undermining the profitability case for AI infrastructure buildout.
What would change the Call
A large new research hire wave, or a cost-cutting announcement, would move this reading.
2 models ran this one. Their numbers and reasons appear after you lock yours.
The thesis
Will Microsoft report a company-wide gross margin percentage for the quarter ending June 30, 2027 that is at least 100 basis points above the same quarter of fiscal 2025, as disclosed in its SEC filings?
Falling cost per served token outpaces token price declines, so hyperscaler-reported gross margins expand despite surging AI inference volume and depreciation from the capex buildout.