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Data centers · Thesis 125 · settles Nov 3 · 11 days · rung 1/3

Will Super Micro Computer's long-term debt reach 30 percent of its quarterly revenue by September 2026?

How it settles

Yes if long-term debt divided by quarterly revenue for the quarter ended September 30 2026, as reported by Super Micro Computer on SEC EDGAR, is at or above 30 percent. SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Super Micro Computer (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)

The exact question and the full rule

Did the long-term debt of Super Micro Computer at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 30.0% of its revenue for the quarter?

Divide the long-term debt that Super Micro Computer reports at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 by the revenue it reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 30.0%; no if it is below 30.0%.

If the source is late or silent: If Super Micro Computer has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.

If no

GPU fleets keep recontracting, no stranding

Expects debt to stay heavy relative to sales, continuing the elevated load seen last quarter, keeping the ratio at or above 30 percent.

If yes

Obsolete GPU hardware gets stranded

Expects revenue growth or debt paydown to bring the ratio below 30 percent, a sharp drop from the prior quarter's level.

50%
NoYes

No position, no money. The crowd, the Call and the machines appear after you lock your number.

The case · 5 people · 2 minutes
GPU fleets keep recontracting, no stranding2 people argue noObsolete GPU hardware gets stranded3 people argue yes
Stronger if no · 2 people

GPU fleets keep recontracting, no stranding

CoreWeave disclosed an A100 contract running into 2029 on architecture from 2020. If hardware generations recontracts rather than being written off, and if this behaviour generalizes, then payback maths for neocloud fleets improve and the…

Stronger if yes · 3 people

Obsolete GPU hardware gets stranded

Michael BurryAug 21

As small local models improve in efficiency and capability faster than data center hardware depreciation schedules assume, an increasing share of inference workload migrates away from centralized data centers, undermining the revenue assumptions…

What would change the Call
  • The long-term debt balance or revenue figure Super Micro Computer reports for the quarter would move the number.
The Call · Thesis 125

The house has not taken a side.

The dossier · 5 minutes
The machines' reasons

2 models ran this one. Their numbers and reasons appear after you lock yours.

The thesis

Will CoreWeave's FY2026 Form 10-K retain a weighted-average or stated useful life of six years or more for its GPU computing equipment, with no AI-hardware impairment charge above $250M disclosed for FY2026?

Prior-generation accelerators keep recontracting at economic prices, so neocloud depreciation schedules hold and no material stranding charge appears.