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Models & labs · Thesis 132 · settles Nov 2 · 10 days · rung 2/3

Will Palantir's gross profit be at least 85.5 percent of its revenue for the quarter ended September 30, 2026?

How it settles

Yes if gross profit divided by revenue in Palantir's 10-Q or 10-K for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, on SEC EDGAR, is at or above 85.5 percent; no if below. SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Palantir (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)

The exact question and the full rule

Did the gross profit of Palantir for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 85.5% of its revenue?

Divide the gross profit by the revenue that Palantir reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 85.5%; no if it is below 85.5%.

If the source is late or silent: If Palantir has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.

If no

Margins stay below the floor

No: expects margin to stay below 85.5 percent, consistent with recent quarterly readings.

If yes

Pricing power holds above cost

Yes: expects margin to rise above 85.5 percent, building on the 84.7 percent reading last quarter.

50%
NoYes

No position, no money. The crowd, the Call and the machines appear after you lock your number.

The case · 6 people · 2 minutes
Margins stay below the floor5 people argue noPricing power holds above cost1 people argue yes
Stronger if no · 5 people

Margins stay below the floor

Steve EismanJul 24

If competitors can deliver comparable AI capabilities at much lower cost, the market for AI services becomes price-competitive rather than feature-competitive. This makes the previous spending spree on capability development appear wasteful because…

Stronger if yes · 1 people

Pricing power holds above cost

Miqdad JafferSep 11

In SaaS, marginal costs approach zero once the product is built, so overpaying for acquisition was acceptable because unit economics improved at scale. In AI, every query has a price tag that often gets worse as the company grows. A free tier that…

What would change the Call
  • The gross profit and revenue figures Palantir reports for this quarter in its SEC filing would move the call.
The Call · Thesis 132 · Margins stay below the floor

The house leans to "Margins stay below the floor".

The dossier · 5 minutes
The machines' reasons

2 models ran this one. Their numbers and reasons appear after you lock yours.

The thesis

Will a major foundation model provider publicly disclose model/inference gross margin above 60% in a filing or audited disclosure before 2027-12-31?

Despite price competition, some argue frontier providers retain pricing power above serving cost; others expect commoditization, and the question is whether a provider discloses inference gross margin above 60% before 2027-12-31.