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MODEL · T08

Will US data center electricity consumption, as reported by EIA, grow at least 15% year-over-year in the most recent full-year or twelve-month figure published before 2027-12-31?

Elastic inference demand translates into physical compute expansion, so data center electricity consumption keeps growing double-digit percentages despite per-token cost declines.

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Inference demand is price-elastic

Cheaper inference unlocks agentic workloads consuming 15-100x more compute per task, driving utilization of deployed accelerators toward saturation. Total electricity drawn by US data centers rises faster than efficiency gains reduce energy per token.

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The case against it

Market preference shifting from high-cost to lower-cost token models, so silicon Data Token Cost Index declines while overall AI spending remains stable or increases. It would show first if EIA-reported data center load growth falls below 15% YoY while token prices continue to fall.

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The questions

  1. Settles Oct 29open

    Will Amazon's revenue grow at least 12.0% in Q3 2026 versus Q3 2025?

  2. Settles Oct 29open

    Will Amazon's revenue for the quarter ending September 30 2026 be at least 15 percent higher than a year earlier?

  3. Settles Oct 29open

    Will Amazon's revenue for the quarter ending September 30 2026 be at least 18 percent higher than a year earlier?

  4. Settles Oct 28open

    Will Alphabet's revenue for the quarter ending September 30 2026 be at least 22 percent higher than a year earlier?

  5. Settles Oct 28open

    Will Alphabet's revenue for the quarter ending September 30 2026 be at least 24.5 percent higher than a year earlier?

  6. Settles Oct 28open

    Will Alphabet's revenue for the quarter ending September 30 2026 be at least 27 percent higher than a year earlier?

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