Will the published list price per million output tokens of the flagship frontier models from OpenAI and Anthropic fall by 50% or more from their 2026-01-01 levels by 2027-12-31?

Flagship prices hold firm

Feedback loops from reasoning models combined with reinforcement learning make frontier large language models more differentiated and harder to replicate, creating a scale-driven network effect that narrows the field of leading providers. This differentiation reduces the risk that frontier models become commodities, letting closed labs sustain flagship pricing. On this view, flagship closed-model output-token list prices from OpenAI and Anthropic stay flat or higher at end-2027 versus their 2026-01-01 levels rather than falling by 50% or more.

3 voices