MEM · T02
Will DRAM contract prices (TrendForce DXI or published DDR5 contract price index) decline by 20% or more from their 2026 peak at any point before 2027-12-31?
Capacity additions, Chinese entrants, and architecture workarounds break the memory shortage, producing a 20%+ drawdown in DRAM contract pricing from the 2026 peak.
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Supply response breaks the HBM-driven price cycle
Record memory margins pull in massive capex, Chinese DRAM scale-up, and hyperscaler-sponsored or alternative-memory designs that reduce HBM dependence. Supply catches up with AI demand, contract prices fall sharply, and the memory scarcity rent compresses. Contracts increasingly trade peak pricing for duration, with the premium per bit compressing even as earnings visibility lengthens.
5 voices
HBM is the binding constraint, keeping prices elevated
Demand for AI memory growing at 200% annually while supply grows at 20% annually, so memory revenue rises and does not peak for years, contrary to current valuations of suppliers. Generative artificial intelligence workloads consume memory at multiples of prior compute paradigms, and rising trade ratios of high-bandwidth memory absorb disproportionate wafer capacity, so the memory market remains in deficit through 2027 with sustained pricing power and extended cycle duration beyond the historical two to three year pattern. It would show first if DRAM contract prices remain within 10% of their 2026 peak through 2027.
6 voices
The questions
Settles Oct 29open
Will Sandisk's gross profit reach 75 percent of its revenue in the quarter ending October 2, 2026?
Settles Oct 29open
Will Sandisk's gross profit reach at least 83 percent of its revenue for the quarter ending October 2, 2026?
Settles Oct 29open
Will Sandisk's gross profit reach at least 88 percent of its revenue for the quarter ending October 2, 2026?