Person · Capital Wars
Michael Howell is named in 3 Parts of The Buildout, most recently Part 15: Oil Is the Headline. The Real Yield Is the Bill.. Argued in Part 7 (Growth: yields are catching up), Part 10 (A growth signal near a peak), Part 15 (The boom pays the rate), Part 15 (Voices that cross sides).
What Michael Howell argued
Paraphrased and attributed, with the date and a link where one exists. DeepStack keeps no score of who was right; the dated tests do that work in the open.
Part 15 · The boom pays the rateSep 11, 2026
Term premia have increased only 29 basis points since late June while implied policy-rate expectations have risen 51 basis points, showing policy-rate expectations account for most of the yield rise.
Oil Is the Headline. The Real Yield Is the Bill. Who is on each side Source
Part 15 · The boom pays the rateSep 27, 2026
Falling term premia signal the market is moving toward the next stage of the cycle, Turbulence, which has historically been challenging for risk assets but favourable for government bonds as investors scramble for safe assets.
Oil Is the Headline. The Real Yield Is the Bill. Who is on each side Source
Part 15 · Voices that cross sidesAug 23, 2026
Long-term Treasury yields are rising because the US economy is very strong: nominal GDP growth has accelerated, supported by a persistent fiscal deficit of around 6% of GDP and a large wave of AI-related capital expenditure.
Oil Is the Headline. The Real Yield Is the Bill. Who is on each side Source
Part 10 · A growth signal near a peakSep 18, 2026
The recent rise in Treasury yields has been driven primarily by higher expected short-term interest rates rather than by expanding term premia, and there is a reasonable case that term premia have actually been declining.
Part 10 · A growth signal near a peakSep 27, 2026
Evidence of falling term premia is already visible in the 10-year versus 5-year yield spread narrowing to 13bp from over 45bp at the start of 2026.
Part 07 · Growth: yields are catching upSep 18, 2026
The current bond market cycle is behaving like a normal cycle, and a major buying opportunity for fixed income is approaching as yields near a peak.
The Fed Hiked. The Long End Still Climbed. Who is on each side Source
Part 07 · Growth: yields are catching upSep 18, 2026
The risk-return balance for bonds is improving: a further 50bp yield rise would still give bonds a positive annual return, while a subsequent 100bp yield fall would generate a more than 12% annual return.
The Fed Hiked. The Long End Still Climbed. Who is on each side Source
In The Buildout
One line per story, from the story itself.
Part 15Lede
On September 27, Michael Howell of Capital Wars wrote that history shows the real economy turning fragile as long-term rates approach 5.5%, so the next large move in Treasury yields may be down.
Oil Is the Headline. The Real Yield Is the Bill.Part 10A cheap top
Michael Howell of Capital Wars says he underestimated AI spending’s lift to earnings; David George at a16z credits technology with about 76% of S&P 500 profit growth through late August.
The Bubble Is in the DenominatorPart 10The bill raises the rate
Michael Howell reads the curve more kindly.
The Bubble Is in the DenominatorPart 07The calm is real
Michael Howell saw the same calm in the premium investors pay to hold Treasuries rather than comparable AAA bonds.
The Fed Hiked. The Long End Still Climbed.Part 07Three prices for 5%
Michael Howell estimates nominal output is expanding at roughly 7% to 8% and says a 10-year yield near 5% remains about two percentage points too low.
The Fed Hiked. The Long End Still Climbed.Follow
Across the DeepStack reading
1498 claims and 141 texts mention Michael Howell, as of Oct 22, 2026. A count of attention, not a judgment.
Analysis and opinion, not investment advice. What a person argued is reported, not rated; DeepStack shows no score, ranking or accuracy for anyone.