Prof G Markets

Part 16Two labs carry the chain

Ed Elson of Prof G Markets estimated on July 7 that the two labs supplied 60% to 80% of the AI revenue at Amazon, Google and Microsoft and, citing The Information, about half of the hyperscalers' revenue backlog.

Part 16Two labs carry the chain

Mia Silverio of Prof G Markets wrote on October 5 that two customers supplied nearly a quarter of Anthropic's 2025 revenue and that 47% of its sales ran through Amazon and Google, a concentration a small company can live with and a company seeking a $2 trillion value cannot.

Part 15The two shocks compound

Mia Silverio of Prof G Markets named the cost on October 5: an investor who can earn 5.3% on a Treasury demands more from a stock and pays less for each dollar of its earnings.

Part 14The bill has moved to debt

Ed Elson of Prof G Markets noted on August 11 that Google had spent $45 billion and Amazon $54 billion in a single quarter and that both ended with negative cash flow.

Part 13The plant is late

Mia Silverio of Prof G Markets relayed on September 28 an estimate that 30% to 50% of the data center megawatts planned to open this year will be delayed, with opposition groups in the United States above 840, from fewer than 50 at the start of 2024.

Part 12Lede

Mia Silverio of Prof G Markets, on October 5, set the $2 trillion valuation Anthropic is said to seek against Aswath Damodaran's estimate, which she relays, of an AI products and services market near $250 billion; nearly a quarter of Anthropic's 2025 revenue, by her count, came from two customers, and 47% of sales ran through Amazon and Google.

Part 11A backlog is a promise

Mia Silverio of Prof G Markets supplied the extreme case on September 28: SB Energy has no operating data centers and a $439 billion backlog of which 9% has broken ground, and most of its contracts let the customer leave if a project runs more than a year late.

Part 10A cheap top

Mia Silverio of Prof G Markets cited a Goldman Sachs estimate that half of this year’s earnings growth comes from AI investment, even as the other 493 companies grew profits 31.8% in the second quarter.

Part 09The tollbooth shifts

Mia Silverio of Prof G Markets counts nearly $170 billion of market value added to Meta in Muse’s first two weeks.

Part 06The megawatt premium

Prof G Markets puts data-center capital spending above telecom’s share of output in the 2000s and growing faster: it added 0.85 percentage points to GDP in one year, against 0.5 at the housing boom’s peak and 0.15 for telecom.

Part 04Arithmetic sets the test

Prof G Markets tallied the immediate bill: Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Meta spent $165 billion on capital spending in three months, up 87 percent from a year earlier and 393 percent from three years earlier.

Part 04The tape picks winners

Prof G Markets reads the same scorecard through cash flow.