Who is on each side · Part 13
Who pays for the AI power bill?
20 voices who disagree about The Ratepayer Pays First. Each voice is attributed and paraphrased, dated where the date is known, with a link where one exists.
The DeepStack callSplit
Data centers pay for their own wires. The higher capacity price their demand sets lands first on every PJM household's bill.
Our Call takes the side “The bill no state can shield”.
Three voices per side
Where the argument stands.
DeepStack’s pick of the voices that carry each side, in its own words, and the case against each side, chosen by hand with the reason given. Every voice the record holds is listed below; the grid and the CSV carry them all.
3 of 12 voices
The load pays its way
Google pays for the transmission lines, upgrades and substations its load needs, so a utility building for Google does not raise other customers’ rates.
Berkshire Hathaway Energy joins a data-center buildout only when the hyperscaler bears the full construction and operating cost, which keeps the risk off its other customers.
A large load that must fund the new generation it needs puts up far more than the $50,000 per megawatt security deposit, so its ability to meet its commitments is not in doubt.
3 of 11 voices
The bill no state can shield
Monitoring Analytics (PJM market monitor)
The failure to impose a reliability requirement on large loads has already raised capacity prices, and energy prices and transmission costs with them.
PJM’s capacity price for the mid-Atlantic cleared at $269.92 per megawatt-day in July 2024, nine times the prior auction’s $28.92, and every auction since has cleared at the administrative cap.
Maryland Office of People's Counsel
Without regional reform, state-level large-load tariffs can make things worse: they sharpen the incentive to overbuild and shift the cost to customers elsewhere in PJM.
3 of 9 voices
The plant is late
North American Electric Reliability Corporation
Two years of NERC’s long-term assessments show resource growth projections outrunning what gets built, with supply chains, permitting and project owners’ decisions slowing interconnection.
Electric Reliability Council of Texas
ERCOT is tracking roughly 438 gigawatts of large-load interconnection requests and roughly 452 gigawatts of generation requests, most of the former with no study submitted.
An estimated 30 to 50 percent of the data-center capacity planned for this year will be delayed by grid connections, power equipment shortages and rising costs.
- PJM
- PJM Interconnection, the grid operator for 13 states and the District of Columbia, from Illinois to New Jersey.
- ERCOT
- Electric Reliability Council of Texas, the grid operator for most of Texas.
- NERC
- North American Electric Reliability Corporation, which sets and assesses the reliability standards of the grid.
- FERC
- Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, the federal regulator of wholesale power and transmission.
- ANOPR
- Advance notice of proposed rulemaking, the step before FERC drafts a rule.
- NOPR
- Notice of proposed rulemaking, FERC’s draft of a rule, open to comment.
- BTMG
- Behind-the-meter generation, a plant on the customer’s side of the meter that serves the load directly.
- LTRA
- NERC’s Long-Term Reliability Assessment, its yearly ten-year outlook for supply and demand.
- VSCC
- Virginia State Corporation Commission, Virginia’s utility regulator.
- CIR
- Capacity interconnection rights, PJM’s grant of transmission capability to a generator.
Every voice, as the record holds it · 36 claims · 20 voices · 1 question
12 voices
The load pays its way
Because of how billing works, a utility building out capacity for Google could in theory raise other people's rates, so Google ensures it pays for the transmission lines, upgrades and additional utility base stations required.
Citing ERCOT's October 2025 reporting, over 200 gigawatts of large loads have requested interconnection through the interim process, yet less than 4% have been granted approval to energize and about another 7% are eligible to seek energization…
The Joint Commenters recommend the Commission adopt a unifying framework aligning all related rulemakings and ERCOT protocol revisions, advancing cost-causation-based cost assignment that shields residential and small commercial customers from cost…
Crusoe states that co-located generation, when structured correctly, simultaneously advances grid reliability, reduces ratepayer costs, and accelerates AI infrastructure buildout, which is the basis of its energy-first 'bring your own power' model.
Crusoe states that PJM's own filing acknowledges a lower threshold risks forcing existing BTMG resources offline during the transition period, which would increase grid burden by converting currently netted load into full network load without…
EDFps says BTMG co-location can reduce grid congestion, avoid generator interconnection queue delays, lower network upgrade needs, reduce congestion costs, allow the load to provide demand response if power demands are flexible, and deliver…
EDFps argues PJM's own proposed contract demand service changes alleviate the ability of large loads with Retail BTMG to lean on the system, since a Retail BTMG equal to the load size fully covered by Non-Firm Contract Demand would be limited to…
NRG argues that because the funding a large load customer must supply to bring new generation greatly exceeds the $50,000/MW security amount, concerns about whether the large load can meet financial commitments are easily satisfied under BYOG…
NRG states the ERCOT region faces unprecedented load growth over the next five years, which it says will bring both grid challenges and significant business development opportunities in Texas, making it critical to get the large load…
BHE's stance of participating in data center buildouts only if hyperscalers bear the full construction and operating cost is a disciplined framework that lets it join a major infrastructure cycle without spreading risk and cost onto existing…
PJM's proposed June 1, 2029 effective date for the new transmission services presumably means PJM cannot start studying these innovative solutions for over three years, and the goal should be to implement needed reforms earlier than 2029 given the…
Clearer interconnection rules for existing generators also require more concrete timelines for reviewing and approving Necessary Studies and CIR revisions, and PJM needs to account for CIRs going to the specific co-located customer so a generator…
11 voices
The bill no state can shield
Monitoring Analytics (PJM market monitor)
The central issue facing PJM, which the Market Monitor says the ANOPR appears to largely ignore, is that there is not enough generating capacity to reliably serve the large loads that want to be online quickly.
Monitoring Analytics (PJM market monitor)
The Market Monitor states that the current failure to impose a reliability requirement has led to large increases in capacity market prices, and also in energy market prices and transmission costs.
Virginia State Corporation Commission
Taking action specific to the PJM region appears to the VSCC to be both premature and potentially harmful, to the extent it conflicts with later guidance through the NOPR process, since the ANOPR already frames whether and how hybrid loads…
Virginia State Corporation Commission
Implementing a minimum set of standards designed to remove bottlenecks within the interconnection queue itself can expedite interconnections without disturbing existing state-federal jurisdictional boundaries.
Maryland Office of People's Counsel
Fixing cost allocation alone is insufficient if planning inputs remain corrupted by speculative and duplicative load forecasts, so a remedy must also reform the planning process to eliminate speculative load forecasts.
Maryland Office of People's Counsel
Absent regional reform, state-level remedies such as large load tariffs may worsen the problem by magnifying the incentive to overbuild while shifting costs to customers elsewhere in PJM.
Because the transmission system is not a one-and-done investment but evolves and requires maintenance at a cost, a model where initial investment absolves co-located loads of ongoing contributions leaves other customers holding the bag and creates…
Interconnection queues, turbine shortages, and permitting gridlock are preventing $33 billion offers from translating into actual megawatts of new capacity.
The PJM capacity auction price for mid-Atlantic grid generation cleared at $269.92 per megawatt-day in July 2024, up 9x from the previous auction's $28.92, with all subsequent auctions clearing at administrative price caps.
Market Sentiment treats the January joint declaration by the governors of all 13 PJM states with the Trump administration that power prices be reined in and that data centers pay their grid costs, together with the extension of the capacity-auction…
Earthjustice argues that no commenter describes what financial penalty would be sufficient in practice, likely because none of them know what penalty would convince large load customers—who have virtually unlimited capital and very high contractual…
9 voices
The plant is late
North American Electric Reliability Corporation
Over the past two years NERC's LTRA has shown that industry resource growth projections can outpace actual completion rates, with efforts to interconnect resources hampered by unresponsive supply chains, permitting delays, and project owner…
North American Electric Reliability Corporation
Large loads inherently add volatility to load forecasts because project timelines and commitments can vary with construction, permitting approvals, grid development and data center owner decisions; revised ERCOT and PJM forecasts prepared after the…
Electric Reliability Council of Texas
ERCOT reports it is tracking roughly 438 GW of Large Load interconnection requests and roughly 452 GW of Generation Interconnection requests.
Electric Reliability Council of Texas
The 438 GW of Large Load interconnection requests is tracked through the current PGRR115-based process, in which the vast majority of requests have no studies submitted; that process ends July 10, 2026, when ERCOT switches to a batch-based…
ERCOT illustrates phantom demand: as of April 2026 it was assessing more than 410 GW of large-load interconnection requests, over 87% from datacenters, against a Texas all-time peak of about 85 GW, and they count 311 GW of that as phantom…
They acknowledge open questions in judging real delays: some projects may die on local opposition while others pass and unseat the council members who approved them, labor can be imported or become a constraint, and behind-the-meter power remains a…
They expect power generation to be a major bottleneck to grid-connected datacenter load growth, pointing to utilities revising promised load ramps by years because long-lead interconnection equipment is unavailable, and to buyers now bearing the…
Investors are understandably nervous because an estimated 30% to 50% of data center capacity planned to come online this year will be delayed, as constructors face grid connection issues, power equipment supply shortages, and increasingly community…
PJM's 2027/2028 Base Residual Auction failed to meet the reliability requirement for the first time since the capacity market's creation in 2007, achieving only a 14.8% reserve margin against a 20.0% target, a shortfall of 6,623 MW.
4 voices
Voices that cross sides
On his program, Millican's large-load tariffs and 260 GW; Arent's spare grids.
The capacity price ninefold; the auction short; on-site power could shrink the gap.
Own generation answers affordability; the influx of large loads threatens bills.
Shield households by cost causation; $24B of Texas lines need loads that connect.
Notes
Not a disagreement.
Where two voices only seem to differ, or where the thread runs back to an earlier Part.
The thread
Part 6 asked who holds the premium for scarce power. Part 13 asks who pays for it, and reads the regulatory record beside the voices.
Where they cross
Who answers whom.
The specific points where one voice meets another: the same evidence read two ways, or the same mechanism with a different sign.
Jason Bordoff qualifies Maryland Office of People's Counsel, on a condition
Maryland Office of People's Counsel qualifies Jason Bordoff, on the mechanism
Virginia State Corporation Commission qualifies Alphabet, on the mechanism
Virginia State Corporation Commission refutes Monitoring Analytics (PJM market monitor), on the mechanism
TSCS qualifies North American Electric Reliability Corporation, on the evidence
Virginia State Corporation Commission qualifies Monitoring Analytics (PJM market monitor), on the mechanism
Virginia State Corporation Commission qualifies Monitoring Analytics (PJM market monitor), on premise
Monitoring Analytics (PJM market monitor) qualifies Virginia State Corporation Commission, on the mechanism
Crusoe Energy qualifies EDF Power Solutions, on a condition
North American Electric Reliability Corporation qualifies TSCS, on a condition
EDF Power Solutions qualifies Data Center Coalition, on a condition
NRG Energy qualifies North American Electric Reliability Corporation, on a condition
Virginia State Corporation Commission contradicts Monitoring Analytics (PJM market monitor), on premise
Jason Bordoff qualifies Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros, on the mechanism
Virginia State Corporation Commission contradicts Monitoring Analytics (PJM market monitor), on the mechanism
Monitoring Analytics (PJM market monitor) qualifies Virginia State Corporation Commission, on a condition
Virginia State Corporation Commission qualifies Alphabet, on a condition
Virginia State Corporation Commission qualifies Monitoring Analytics (PJM market monitor), on a condition
Reyk Knuhtsen qualifies Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros, on the evidence
NRG Energy contradicts Earthjustice, on the mechanism
Virginia State Corporation Commission contradicts Alphabet, on the evidence
What would settle it
The dated tests.
The same tests the story set, on the Docket; results land on the Results page.
- Late October
The federal price data for August: whether the median twelve-month rise in household prices across PJM's nine jurisdictions stays at least four points above the median of the other 42, from 11.7% against 5.6% in July.
PJM's capacity auction for the year from June 2029, as scheduled: whether it clears below the price ceiling, the second exit from the house's view.
- Late February 2027
The federal data for all of 2026: the same four-point test, with Texas below the national change.
Analysis and opinion, not investment advice. Voices are paraphrased from public writing and attributed by name; DeepStack shows no score, ranking or accuracy for any person.