Thesis · Power, Energy & Grid

Will the Henry Hub front-month natural gas settlement price close above $7.00/MMBtu on any trading day before 2027-12-31?

Combined AI datacenter gas burn, LNG export ramp, and slowing shale supply growth push Henry Hub above $7 at least once, showing the gas bridge is supply-constrained rather than cheap.

22 dated tests · 0 resolved · next on

The tests More theses in Power, Energy & Grid

Who is on each side

The two sides.

Each side in DeepStack’s words, then the voices who argue it, attributed and paraphrased, dated where the date is known. A voice links to its page on DeepStack where one exists.

The case for yes

Gas is the bridge fuel for AI load

Incremental power-sector gas demand from datacenters stacks on top of record LNG feedgas while associated-gas growth from maturing shale plays decelerates. Storage draws deepen and the Henry Hub curve spikes above $7, raising the cost of the gas bridge and inviting substitution or load curtailment.

The case for no

Henry Hub stays under $7 through 2027

Fast-build gas-fired generation is the industry's answer to exponential AI power demand, and that buildout incentive supports continued drilling and production growth that can keep pace with power-sector and LNG demand. On this view, dry gas and associated gas supply expand enough that Henry Hub stays below $7 through 2027 despite rising AI and export demand. This side would be shown right if drilling activity and pipeline takeaway capacity expand enough that storage stays near historical norms.

2 voices

Gas is the bridge fuel for AI load

  1. DeepValue Capital

    AI infrastructure requires significant electricity, which is increasingly powered by natural gas as backup and baseload generation. Major financial institutions and tech companies are financing AI buildout, creating structural demand for natural gas.

    Source

  2. Tscsw

    The shale region experiencing historical depletion while demand surges from energy-intensive AI facilities and increased European LNG demand creates supply constraints supporting price appreciation.

    Source

2 voices

Henry Hub stays under $7 through 2027

  1. Michael Spyker

    Because official forecasts have understated how much domestic gas demand (especially from data centers) would grow, LNG developers planned export capacity assuming ample surplus gas would remain available; as AI-driven demand materializes…

    Source

  2. Kevin Gee

    As AI and data centers scale, power demands grow exponentially. New nuclear plants take 10+ years to build and face political resistance. Renewable buildout has timeline constraints. Natural gas plants can be built and deployed quickly and are…

    Source

What would settle it

The dated tests.

Each test names the public source that settles it, the rule and the day. The Call’s number, the readers’ median and the machines’ numbers stand beside it, as on the Docket.

  1. Vistra, long-term debt as a share of the quarter's revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 410%.

    On the Docket Pendingth073-t04Pre-specified

    Question
    Did the long-term debt of Vistra at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 410.0% of its revenue for the quarter?
    Source
    SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Vistra (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)
    Rule
    Divide the long-term debt that Vistra reports at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 by the revenue it reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 410.0%; no if it is below 410.0%.
    If the source is late, revised or silent
    If Vistra has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.
    Base rate
    Vistra's long-term debt as a share of the quarter's revenue was 445.2% at the end of the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.
    Outside view
    A year earlier, at the end of the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 420.2%, so the rungs sit on the last print.
    What would change the number
    A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading.

    The Call, before the dateExpects yes. Gives the yes answer 71%.

    71%

    0 · no100 · yes

    The machinesClaude 61% · DeepSeek 70%

    Claude: 61%DeepSeek: 70%
    The ladder 3 rungs on one reading, Nov 6, 2026: each asks whether it lands above its threshold, so the Call’s numbers down the rungs sketch where it expects the reading to land.

    1. Above 410%Call 71% · Claude 61% · DeepSeek 70%

      71%

    2. Above 435%Call 53% · Claude 22% · DeepSeek 12%

      53%

    3. Above 455%Call 32% · Claude 22% · DeepSeek 8%

      32%

    0 · no50100 · yes

    Your number

  2. Vistra, long-term debt as a share of the quarter's revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 435%.

    On the Docket Pendingth073-t05Pre-specified

    Question
    Did the long-term debt of Vistra at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 435.0% of its revenue for the quarter?
    Source
    SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Vistra (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)
    Rule
    Divide the long-term debt that Vistra reports at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 by the revenue it reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 435.0%; no if it is below 435.0%.
    If the source is late, revised or silent
    If Vistra has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.
    Base rate
    Vistra's long-term debt as a share of the quarter's revenue was 445.2% at the end of the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.
    Outside view
    A year earlier, at the end of the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 420.2%, so the rungs sit on the last print.
    What would change the number
    A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading.

    The Call, before the dateEither answer fits the Call. Gives the yes answer 53%.

    53%

    0 · no100 · yes

    The machinesClaude 22% · DeepSeek 12%

    Claude: 22%DeepSeek: 12%

    Your number

  3. Vistra, long-term debt as a share of the quarter's revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 455%.

    On the Docket Pendingth073-t06Pre-specified

    Question
    Did the long-term debt of Vistra at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 455.0% of its revenue for the quarter?
    Source
    SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Vistra (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)
    Rule
    Divide the long-term debt that Vistra reports at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 by the revenue it reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 455.0%; no if it is below 455.0%.
    If the source is late, revised or silent
    If Vistra has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.
    Base rate
    Vistra's long-term debt as a share of the quarter's revenue was 445.2% at the end of the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.
    Outside view
    A year earlier, at the end of the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 420.2%, so the rungs sit on the last print.
    What would change the number
    A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading.

    The Call, before the dateExpects no. Gives the yes answer 32%.

    32%

    0 · no100 · yes

    The machinesClaude 22% · DeepSeek 8%

    Claude: 22%DeepSeek: 8%

    Your number

  4. Constellation Energy, purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 20%.

    On the Docket Pendingth073-t01Pre-specified

    Question
    Did the purchases of property and equipment of Constellation Energy for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 20.0% of its revenue?
    Source
    SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Constellation Energy (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)
    Rule
    Divide the purchases of property and equipment by the revenue that Constellation Energy reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 20.0%; no if it is below 20.0%.
    If the source is late, revised or silent
    If Constellation Energy has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.
    Base rate
    Constellation Energy's purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue was 21.3% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.
    Outside view
    A year earlier, for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 14.9%, so the rungs sit on the last print.
    What would change the number
    A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading.

    The Call, before the dateExpects yes. Gives the yes answer 72%.

    72%

    0 · no100 · yes

    The machinesClaude 61% · DeepSeek 15%

    Claude: 61%DeepSeek: 15%
    The ladder 3 rungs on one reading, Nov 9, 2026: each asks whether it lands above its threshold, so the Call’s numbers down the rungs sketch where it expects the reading to land.

    1. Above 20%Call 72% · Claude 61% · DeepSeek 15%

      72%

    2. Above 22.5%Call 50% · Claude 26% · DeepSeek 4%

      50%

    3. Above 25%Call 28% · Claude 22% · DeepSeek 93%

      28%

    0 · no50100 · yes

    Your number

  5. Constellation Energy, purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 22.5%.

    On the Docket Pendingth073-t02Pre-specified

    Question
    Did the purchases of property and equipment of Constellation Energy for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 22.5% of its revenue?
    Source
    SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Constellation Energy (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)
    Rule
    Divide the purchases of property and equipment by the revenue that Constellation Energy reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 22.5%; no if it is below 22.5%.
    If the source is late, revised or silent
    If Constellation Energy has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.
    Base rate
    Constellation Energy's purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue was 21.3% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.
    Outside view
    A year earlier, for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 14.9%, so the rungs sit on the last print.
    What would change the number
    A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading.

    The Call, before the dateEither answer fits the Call. Gives the yes answer 50%.

    50%

    0 · no100 · yes

    The machinesClaude 26% · DeepSeek 4%

    Claude: 26%DeepSeek: 4%

    Your number

  6. Constellation Energy, purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 25%.

    On the Docket Pendingth073-t03Pre-specified

    Question
    Did the purchases of property and equipment of Constellation Energy for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 25.0% of its revenue?
    Source
    SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Constellation Energy (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)
    Rule
    Divide the purchases of property and equipment by the revenue that Constellation Energy reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 25.0%; no if it is below 25.0%.
    If the source is late, revised or silent
    If Constellation Energy has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.
    Base rate
    Constellation Energy's purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue was 21.3% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.
    Outside view
    A year earlier, for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 14.9%, so the rungs sit on the last print.
    What would change the number
    A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading.

    The Call, before the dateExpects no. Gives the yes answer 28%.

    28%

    0 · no100 · yes

    The machinesClaude 22% · DeepSeek 93%

    Claude: 22%DeepSeek: 93%

    Your number

  7. US Energy Information Administration: release of 2027-04-06

    On the Docket Pendingth073-t20Pre-specified

    Question
    Will the EIA's April 2027 Short-Term Energy Outlook put US retail electricity sales for 2027 at or above 4,200.0 billion kilowatthours?
    Source
    US Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Table 7a (U.S. Electricity Industry Overview)
    Rule
    Read the Short-Term Energy Outlook the US Energy Information Administration releases on April 6, 2027 (the archive workbook apr27_base.xlsx, Table 7a, line ELTCTWH) and add the twelve monthly figures for 2027 of the retail sales of electricity to ultimate customers in the United States, all sectors. The answer is yes if the sum is at or above 4,200.0 billion kilowatthours; no if it is below 4,200.0 billion kilowatthours.
    If the source is late, revised or silent
    If the EIA has not posted the April 2027 workbook in its archive by April 13, 2027, or the table lacks a line or a month the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; a later outlook does not change the reading.
    Base rate
    The October 2026 outlook, the latest before this question, puts US retail electricity sales for 2027 at 4,216.6 billion kilowatthours.
    Outside view
    For 2026 the same outlook reads 4,152.0 billion kilowatthours; a monthly outlook moves the year ahead by a few percent at most.
    What would change the number
    A revised load forecast for data centers, a different weather or gas-price path, or a change in the table's composition would move the reading.

    The Call, before the dateExpects yes. Gives the yes answer 78%.

    78%

    0 · no100 · yes

    The machinesClaude 72% · DeepSeek 78%

    Claude: 72%DeepSeek: 78%

    Your number

  8. US Energy Information Administration: release of 2027-04-06

    On the Docket Pendingth073-t21Pre-specified

    Question
    Will the EIA's April 2027 Short-Term Energy Outlook average at or above $50.00 per megawatthour across its eleven wholesale electricity hubs for 2027?
    Source
    US Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Table 7a (U.S. Electricity Industry Overview)
    Rule
    Read the Short-Term Energy Outlook the US Energy Information Administration releases on April 6, 2027 (the archive workbook apr27_base.xlsx, Table 7a, lines ELWHU_TX, ELWHU_CA, ELWHU_NE, ELWHU_NY, ELWHU_PJ, ELWHU_MW, ELWHU_SP, ELWHU_SE, ELWHU_FL, ELWHU_NW and ELWHU_SW) and average the twelve monthly figures for 2027 of each of these eleven wholesale electricity hubs, then average those eleven figures. The answer is yes if the result is at or above $50.00 per megawatthour; no if it is below $50.00 per megawatthour.
    If the source is late, revised or silent
    If the EIA has not posted the April 2027 workbook in its archive by April 13, 2027, or the table lacks a line or a month the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; a later outlook does not change the reading.
    Base rate
    The October 2026 outlook, the latest before this question, averages $46.41 per megawatthour across the eleven hubs for 2027.
    Outside view
    For 2026 the same outlook averages $49.24; the hub forecasts move with the gas price path between releases.
    What would change the number
    A revised load forecast for data centers, a different weather or gas-price path, or a change in the table's composition would move the reading.

    The Call, before the dateExpects no. Gives the yes answer 35%.

    35%

    0 · no100 · yes

    The machinesClaude 80% · DeepSeek 55%

    Claude: 80%DeepSeek: 55%

    Your number

  9. US Energy Information Administration: release of 2027-05-11

    On the Docket Pendingth073-t23Pre-specified

    Question
    Will the EIA's May 2027 Short-Term Energy Outlook put US retail electricity sales for 2027 at or above 4,200.0 billion kilowatthours?
    Source
    US Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Table 7a (U.S. Electricity Industry Overview)
    Rule
    Read the Short-Term Energy Outlook the US Energy Information Administration releases on May 11, 2027 (the archive workbook may27_base.xlsx, Table 7a, line ELTCTWH) and add the twelve monthly figures for 2027 of the retail sales of electricity to ultimate customers in the United States, all sectors. The answer is yes if the sum is at or above 4,200.0 billion kilowatthours; no if it is below 4,200.0 billion kilowatthours.
    If the source is late, revised or silent
    If the EIA has not posted the May 2027 workbook in its archive by May 18, 2027, or the table lacks a line or a month the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; a later outlook does not change the reading.
    Base rate
    The October 2026 outlook, the latest before this question, puts US retail electricity sales for 2027 at 4,216.6 billion kilowatthours.
    Outside view
    For 2026 the same outlook reads 4,152.0 billion kilowatthours; a monthly outlook moves the year ahead by a few percent at most.
    What would change the number
    A revised load forecast for data centers, a different weather or gas-price path, or a change in the table's composition would move the reading.

    The Call, before the dateExpects yes. Gives the yes answer 78%.

    78%

    0 · no100 · yes

    The machinesClaude 61% · DeepSeek 68%

    Claude: 61%DeepSeek: 68%

    Your number

  10. US Energy Information Administration: release of 2027-05-11

    On the Docket Pendingth073-t24Pre-specified

    Question
    Will the EIA's May 2027 Short-Term Energy Outlook average at or above $50.00 per megawatthour across its eleven wholesale electricity hubs for 2027?
    Source
    US Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Table 7a (U.S. Electricity Industry Overview)
    Rule
    Read the Short-Term Energy Outlook the US Energy Information Administration releases on May 11, 2027 (the archive workbook may27_base.xlsx, Table 7a, lines ELWHU_TX, ELWHU_CA, ELWHU_NE, ELWHU_NY, ELWHU_PJ, ELWHU_MW, ELWHU_SP, ELWHU_SE, ELWHU_FL, ELWHU_NW and ELWHU_SW) and average the twelve monthly figures for 2027 of each of these eleven wholesale electricity hubs, then average those eleven figures. The answer is yes if the result is at or above $50.00 per megawatthour; no if it is below $50.00 per megawatthour.
    If the source is late, revised or silent
    If the EIA has not posted the May 2027 workbook in its archive by May 18, 2027, or the table lacks a line or a month the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; a later outlook does not change the reading.
    Base rate
    The October 2026 outlook, the latest before this question, averages $46.41 per megawatthour across the eleven hubs for 2027.
    Outside view
    For 2026 the same outlook averages $49.24; the hub forecasts move with the gas price path between releases.
    What would change the number
    A revised load forecast for data centers, a different weather or gas-price path, or a change in the table's composition would move the reading.

    The Call, before the dateExpects no. Gives the yes answer 38%.

    38%

    0 · no100 · yes

    The machinesClaude 82% · DeepSeek 56%

    Claude: 82%DeepSeek: 56%

    Your number

  11. US Energy Information Administration: release of 2027-06-08

    On the Docket Pendingth073-t25Pre-specified

    Question
    Will the EIA's June 2027 Short-Term Energy Outlook have US commercial electricity sales for 2027 growing at or above 2.5% from 2026?
    Source
    US Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Table 7a (U.S. Electricity Industry Overview)
    Rule
    Read the Short-Term Energy Outlook the US Energy Information Administration releases on June 8, 2027 (the archive workbook jun27_base.xlsx, Table 7a, line ELCCP_US) and compare the sum of the twelve monthly figures for 2027 of the retail sales of electricity to the commercial sector in the United States with the sum of those for 2026 in the same workbook. The answer is yes if growth is at or above 2.5%; no if it is below 2.5%.
    If the source is late, revised or silent
    If the EIA has not posted the June 2027 workbook in its archive by June 15, 2027, or the table lacks a line or a month the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; a later outlook does not change the reading.
    Base rate
    The October 2026 outlook, the latest before this question, has US commercial electricity sales for 2027 growing +2.82% from 2026.
    Outside view
    For 2026 the same outlook reads 1,548.7 billion kilowatthours; a monthly outlook moves the year ahead by a few percent at most.
    What would change the number
    A revised load forecast for data centers, a different weather or gas-price path, or a change in the table's composition would move the reading.

    The Call, before the dateExpects yes. Gives the yes answer 62%.

    62%

    0 · no100 · yes

    The machinesClaude 33% · DeepSeek 28%

    Claude: 33%DeepSeek: 28%

    Your number

  12. US Energy Information Administration: release of 2027-06-08

    On the Docket Pendingth073-t26Pre-specified

    Question
    Will the EIA's June 2027 Short-Term Energy Outlook put US retail electricity sales for 2027 at or above 4,200.0 billion kilowatthours?
    Source
    US Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Table 7a (U.S. Electricity Industry Overview)
    Rule
    Read the Short-Term Energy Outlook the US Energy Information Administration releases on June 8, 2027 (the archive workbook jun27_base.xlsx, Table 7a, line ELTCTWH) and add the twelve monthly figures for 2027 of the retail sales of electricity to ultimate customers in the United States, all sectors. The answer is yes if the sum is at or above 4,200.0 billion kilowatthours; no if it is below 4,200.0 billion kilowatthours.
    If the source is late, revised or silent
    If the EIA has not posted the June 2027 workbook in its archive by June 15, 2027, or the table lacks a line or a month the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; a later outlook does not change the reading.
    Base rate
    The October 2026 outlook, the latest before this question, puts US retail electricity sales for 2027 at 4,216.6 billion kilowatthours.
    Outside view
    For 2026 the same outlook reads 4,152.0 billion kilowatthours; a monthly outlook moves the year ahead by a few percent at most.
    What would change the number
    A revised load forecast for data centers, a different weather or gas-price path, or a change in the table's composition would move the reading.

    The Call, before the dateExpects yes. Gives the yes answer 76%.

    76%

    0 · no100 · yes

    The machinesClaude 60% · DeepSeek 53%

    Claude: 60%DeepSeek: 53%

    Your number

  13. US Energy Information Administration: release of 2027-06-08

    On the Docket Pendingth073-t27Pre-specified

    Question
    Will the EIA's June 2027 Short-Term Energy Outlook average at or above $50.00 per megawatthour across its eleven wholesale electricity hubs for 2027?
    Source
    US Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Table 7a (U.S. Electricity Industry Overview)
    Rule
    Read the Short-Term Energy Outlook the US Energy Information Administration releases on June 8, 2027 (the archive workbook jun27_base.xlsx, Table 7a, lines ELWHU_TX, ELWHU_CA, ELWHU_NE, ELWHU_NY, ELWHU_PJ, ELWHU_MW, ELWHU_SP, ELWHU_SE, ELWHU_FL, ELWHU_NW and ELWHU_SW) and average the twelve monthly figures for 2027 of each of these eleven wholesale electricity hubs, then average those eleven figures. The answer is yes if the result is at or above $50.00 per megawatthour; no if it is below $50.00 per megawatthour.
    If the source is late, revised or silent
    If the EIA has not posted the June 2027 workbook in its archive by June 15, 2027, or the table lacks a line or a month the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; a later outlook does not change the reading.
    Base rate
    The October 2026 outlook, the latest before this question, averages $46.41 per megawatthour across the eleven hubs for 2027.
    Outside view
    For 2026 the same outlook averages $49.24; the hub forecasts move with the gas price path between releases.
    What would change the number
    A revised load forecast for data centers, a different weather or gas-price path, or a change in the table's composition would move the reading.

    The Call, before the dateExpects no. Gives the yes answer 38%.

    38%

    0 · no100 · yes

    The machinesClaude 88% · DeepSeek 57%

    Claude: 88%DeepSeek: 57%

    Your number

  14. US Energy Information Administration: release of 2027-07-07

    On the Docket Pendingth073-t28Pre-specified

    Question
    Will the EIA's July 2027 Short-Term Energy Outlook have US commercial electricity sales for 2027 growing at or above 2.5% from 2026?
    Source
    US Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Table 7a (U.S. Electricity Industry Overview)
    Rule
    Read the Short-Term Energy Outlook the US Energy Information Administration releases on July 7, 2027 (the archive workbook jul27_base.xlsx, Table 7a, line ELCCP_US) and compare the sum of the twelve monthly figures for 2027 of the retail sales of electricity to the commercial sector in the United States with the sum of those for 2026 in the same workbook. The answer is yes if growth is at or above 2.5%; no if it is below 2.5%.
    If the source is late, revised or silent
    If the EIA has not posted the July 2027 workbook in its archive by July 14, 2027, or the table lacks a line or a month the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; a later outlook does not change the reading.
    Base rate
    The October 2026 outlook, the latest before this question, has US commercial electricity sales for 2027 growing +2.82% from 2026.
    Outside view
    For 2026 the same outlook reads 1,548.7 billion kilowatthours; a monthly outlook moves the year ahead by a few percent at most.
    What would change the number
    A revised load forecast for data centers, a different weather or gas-price path, or a change in the table's composition would move the reading.

    The Call, before the dateExpects yes. Gives the yes answer 62%.

    62%

    0 · no100 · yes

    The machinesClaude 30% · DeepSeek 35%

    Claude: 30%DeepSeek: 35%

    Your number

  15. US Energy Information Administration: release of 2027-07-07

    On the Docket Pendingth073-t29Pre-specified

    Question
    Will the EIA's July 2027 Short-Term Energy Outlook put US retail electricity sales for 2027 at or above 4,200.0 billion kilowatthours?
    Source
    US Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Table 7a (U.S. Electricity Industry Overview)
    Rule
    Read the Short-Term Energy Outlook the US Energy Information Administration releases on July 7, 2027 (the archive workbook jul27_base.xlsx, Table 7a, line ELTCTWH) and add the twelve monthly figures for 2027 of the retail sales of electricity to ultimate customers in the United States, all sectors. The answer is yes if the sum is at or above 4,200.0 billion kilowatthours; no if it is below 4,200.0 billion kilowatthours.
    If the source is late, revised or silent
    If the EIA has not posted the July 2027 workbook in its archive by July 14, 2027, or the table lacks a line or a month the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; a later outlook does not change the reading.
    Base rate
    The October 2026 outlook, the latest before this question, puts US retail electricity sales for 2027 at 4,216.6 billion kilowatthours.
    Outside view
    For 2026 the same outlook reads 4,152.0 billion kilowatthours; a monthly outlook moves the year ahead by a few percent at most.
    What would change the number
    A revised load forecast for data centers, a different weather or gas-price path, or a change in the table's composition would move the reading.

    The Call, before the dateExpects yes. Gives the yes answer 76%.

    76%

    0 · no100 · yes

    The machinesClaude 72% · DeepSeek 48%

    Claude: 72%DeepSeek: 48%

    Your number

  16. US Energy Information Administration: release of 2027-08-10

    On the Docket Pendingth073-t32Pre-specified

    Question
    Will the EIA's August 2027 Short-Term Energy Outlook put US retail electricity sales for 2027 at or above 4,200.0 billion kilowatthours?
    Source
    US Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Table 7a (U.S. Electricity Industry Overview)
    Rule
    Read the Short-Term Energy Outlook the US Energy Information Administration releases on August 10, 2027 (the archive workbook aug27_base.xlsx, Table 7a, line ELTCTWH) and add the twelve monthly figures for 2027 of the retail sales of electricity to ultimate customers in the United States, all sectors. The answer is yes if the sum is at or above 4,200.0 billion kilowatthours; no if it is below 4,200.0 billion kilowatthours.
    If the source is late, revised or silent
    If the EIA has not posted the August 2027 workbook in its archive by August 17, 2027, or the table lacks a line or a month the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; a later outlook does not change the reading.
    Base rate
    The October 2026 outlook, the latest before this question, puts US retail electricity sales for 2027 at 4,216.6 billion kilowatthours.
    Outside view
    For 2026 the same outlook reads 4,152.0 billion kilowatthours; a monthly outlook moves the year ahead by a few percent at most.
    What would change the number
    A revised load forecast for data centers, a different weather or gas-price path, or a change in the table's composition would move the reading.

    The Call, before the dateExpects yes. Gives the yes answer 76%.

    76%

    0 · no100 · yes

    The machinesClaude 60% · DeepSeek 62%

    Claude: 60%DeepSeek: 62%

    Your number

  17. US Energy Information Administration: release of 2027-08-10

    On the Docket Pendingth073-t33Pre-specified

    Question
    Will the EIA's August 2027 Short-Term Energy Outlook average at or above $50.00 per megawatthour across its eleven wholesale electricity hubs for 2027?
    Source
    US Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Table 7a (U.S. Electricity Industry Overview)
    Rule
    Read the Short-Term Energy Outlook the US Energy Information Administration releases on August 10, 2027 (the archive workbook aug27_base.xlsx, Table 7a, lines ELWHU_TX, ELWHU_CA, ELWHU_NE, ELWHU_NY, ELWHU_PJ, ELWHU_MW, ELWHU_SP, ELWHU_SE, ELWHU_FL, ELWHU_NW and ELWHU_SW) and average the twelve monthly figures for 2027 of each of these eleven wholesale electricity hubs, then average those eleven figures. The answer is yes if the result is at or above $50.00 per megawatthour; no if it is below $50.00 per megawatthour.
    If the source is late, revised or silent
    If the EIA has not posted the August 2027 workbook in its archive by August 17, 2027, or the table lacks a line or a month the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; a later outlook does not change the reading.
    Base rate
    The October 2026 outlook, the latest before this question, averages $46.41 per megawatthour across the eleven hubs for 2027.
    Outside view
    For 2026 the same outlook averages $49.24; the hub forecasts move with the gas price path between releases.
    What would change the number
    A revised load forecast for data centers, a different weather or gas-price path, or a change in the table's composition would move the reading.

    The Call, before the dateExpects no. Gives the yes answer 38%.

    38%

    0 · no100 · yes

    The machinesClaude 80% · DeepSeek 58%

    Claude: 80%DeepSeek: 58%

    Your number

  18. US Energy Information Administration: release of 2027-09-08

    On the Docket Pendingth073-t34Pre-specified

    Question
    Will the EIA's September 2027 Short-Term Energy Outlook have US commercial electricity sales for 2027 growing at or above 2.5% from 2026?
    Source
    US Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Table 7a (U.S. Electricity Industry Overview)
    Rule
    Read the Short-Term Energy Outlook the US Energy Information Administration releases on September 8, 2027 (the archive workbook sep27_base.xlsx, Table 7a, line ELCCP_US) and compare the sum of the twelve monthly figures for 2027 of the retail sales of electricity to the commercial sector in the United States with the sum of those for 2026 in the same workbook. The answer is yes if growth is at or above 2.5%; no if it is below 2.5%.
    If the source is late, revised or silent
    If the EIA has not posted the September 2027 workbook in its archive by September 15, 2027, or the table lacks a line or a month the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; a later outlook does not change the reading.
    Base rate
    The October 2026 outlook, the latest before this question, has US commercial electricity sales for 2027 growing +2.82% from 2026.
    Outside view
    For 2026 the same outlook reads 1,548.7 billion kilowatthours; a monthly outlook moves the year ahead by a few percent at most.
    What would change the number
    A revised load forecast for data centers, a different weather or gas-price path, or a change in the table's composition would move the reading.

    The Call, before the dateExpects yes. Gives the yes answer 62%.

    62%

    0 · no100 · yes

    The machinesClaude 30% · DeepSeek 42%

    Claude: 30%DeepSeek: 42%

    Your number

  19. US Energy Information Administration: release of 2027-09-08

    On the Docket Pendingth073-t36Pre-specified

    Question
    Will the EIA's September 2027 Short-Term Energy Outlook average at or above $50.00 per megawatthour across its eleven wholesale electricity hubs for 2027?
    Source
    US Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Table 7a (U.S. Electricity Industry Overview)
    Rule
    Read the Short-Term Energy Outlook the US Energy Information Administration releases on September 8, 2027 (the archive workbook sep27_base.xlsx, Table 7a, lines ELWHU_TX, ELWHU_CA, ELWHU_NE, ELWHU_NY, ELWHU_PJ, ELWHU_MW, ELWHU_SP, ELWHU_SE, ELWHU_FL, ELWHU_NW and ELWHU_SW) and average the twelve monthly figures for 2027 of each of these eleven wholesale electricity hubs, then average those eleven figures. The answer is yes if the result is at or above $50.00 per megawatthour; no if it is below $50.00 per megawatthour.
    If the source is late, revised or silent
    If the EIA has not posted the September 2027 workbook in its archive by September 15, 2027, or the table lacks a line or a month the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; a later outlook does not change the reading.
    Base rate
    The October 2026 outlook, the latest before this question, averages $46.41 per megawatthour across the eleven hubs for 2027.
    Outside view
    For 2026 the same outlook averages $49.24; the hub forecasts move with the gas price path between releases.
    What would change the number
    A revised load forecast for data centers, a different weather or gas-price path, or a change in the table's composition would move the reading.

    The Call, before the dateExpects no. Gives the yes answer 37%.

    37%

    0 · no100 · yes

    The machinesClaude 72% · DeepSeek 55%

    Claude: 72%DeepSeek: 55%

    Your number

  20. US Energy Information Administration: release of 2027-10-13

    On the Docket Pendingth073-t37Pre-specified

    Question
    Will the EIA's October 2027 Short-Term Energy Outlook have US commercial electricity sales for 2027 growing at or above 2.5% from 2026?
    Source
    US Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Table 7a (U.S. Electricity Industry Overview)
    Rule
    Read the Short-Term Energy Outlook the US Energy Information Administration releases on October 13, 2027 (the archive workbook oct27_base.xlsx, Table 7a, line ELCCP_US) and compare the sum of the twelve monthly figures for 2027 of the retail sales of electricity to the commercial sector in the United States with the sum of those for 2026 in the same workbook. The answer is yes if growth is at or above 2.5%; no if it is below 2.5%.
    If the source is late, revised or silent
    If the EIA has not posted the October 2027 workbook in its archive by October 20, 2027, or the table lacks a line or a month the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; a later outlook does not change the reading.
    Base rate
    The October 2026 outlook, the latest before this question, has US commercial electricity sales for 2027 growing +2.82% from 2026.
    Outside view
    For 2026 the same outlook reads 1,548.7 billion kilowatthours; a monthly outlook moves the year ahead by a few percent at most.
    What would change the number
    A revised load forecast for data centers, a different weather or gas-price path, or a change in the table's composition would move the reading.

    The Call, before the dateExpects yes. Gives the yes answer 58%.

    58%

    0 · no100 · yes

    The machinesClaude 33% · DeepSeek 46%

    Claude: 33%DeepSeek: 46%

    Your number

  21. US Energy Information Administration: release of 2027-11-09

    On the Docket Pendingth073-t40Pre-specified

    Question
    Will the EIA's November 2027 Short-Term Energy Outlook have US commercial electricity sales for 2027 growing at or above 2.5% from 2026?
    Source
    US Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Table 7a (U.S. Electricity Industry Overview)
    Rule
    Read the Short-Term Energy Outlook the US Energy Information Administration releases on November 9, 2027 (the archive workbook nov27_base.xlsx, Table 7a, line ELCCP_US) and compare the sum of the twelve monthly figures for 2027 of the retail sales of electricity to the commercial sector in the United States with the sum of those for 2026 in the same workbook. The answer is yes if growth is at or above 2.5%; no if it is below 2.5%.
    If the source is late, revised or silent
    If the EIA has not posted the November 2027 workbook in its archive by November 16, 2027, or the table lacks a line or a month the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; a later outlook does not change the reading.
    Base rate
    The October 2026 outlook, the latest before this question, has US commercial electricity sales for 2027 growing +2.82% from 2026.
    Outside view
    For 2026 the same outlook reads 1,548.7 billion kilowatthours; a monthly outlook moves the year ahead by a few percent at most.
    What would change the number
    A revised load forecast for data centers, a different weather or gas-price path, or a change in the table's composition would move the reading.

    The Call, before the dateExpects yes. Gives the yes answer 58%.

    58%

    0 · no100 · yes

    The machinesClaude 33% · DeepSeek 35%

    Claude: 33%DeepSeek: 35%

    Your number

  22. US Energy Information Administration: release of 2027-12-07

    On the Docket Pendingth073-t43Pre-specified

    Question
    Will the EIA's December 2027 Short-Term Energy Outlook have US commercial electricity sales for 2027 growing at or above 2.5% from 2026?
    Source
    US Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Table 7a (U.S. Electricity Industry Overview)
    Rule
    Read the Short-Term Energy Outlook the US Energy Information Administration releases on December 7, 2027 (the archive workbook dec27_base.xlsx, Table 7a, line ELCCP_US) and compare the sum of the twelve monthly figures for 2027 of the retail sales of electricity to the commercial sector in the United States with the sum of those for 2026 in the same workbook. The answer is yes if growth is at or above 2.5%; no if it is below 2.5%.
    If the source is late, revised or silent
    If the EIA has not posted the December 2027 workbook in its archive by December 14, 2027, or the table lacks a line or a month the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; a later outlook does not change the reading.
    Base rate
    The October 2026 outlook, the latest before this question, has US commercial electricity sales for 2027 growing +2.82% from 2026.
    Outside view
    For 2026 the same outlook reads 1,548.7 billion kilowatthours; a monthly outlook moves the year ahead by a few percent at most.
    What would change the number
    A revised load forecast for data centers, a different weather or gas-price path, or a change in the table's composition would move the reading.

    The Call, before the dateExpects yes. Gives the yes answer 61%.

    61%

    0 · no100 · yes

    The machinesClaude 30% · DeepSeek 40%

    Claude: 30%DeepSeek: 40%

    Your number

In The Buildout

The stories that take up this thesis, with their own Calls and tests.

A thesis page states one question and both sides of it; DeepStack takes no side in words, and its view is the number it gives each test before the date. Analysis and opinion, not investment advice. Voices are paraphrased from public writing and attributed by name; DeepStack shows no score, ranking or accuracy for any person. Pre-specified means the words were approved on or before the test’s date. Specified after the date means they were written afterwards: such a test is counted and shown, and never rated. An open question has no words yet. The Call’s number is the chance, from 0 to 100, that the Call gives the yes answer to a test’s question, recorded before the test’s date; it is DeepStack’s own reading, not a market price and not advice. The readers’ mark on the same line is the readers’ median, the middle of the numbers signed-in readers gave the test, shown from 25 readers. The machines: Each model read this page and nothing else. The number that counts is the latest one each model gave before the test closed.