Thesis · Power, Energy & Grid

Will the five US states with the fastest 2026-2027 electricity sales growth show lower average residential price growth than the five slowest-growth states?

Fixed infrastructure costs spread over higher data center volumes so high-load-growth states see slower residential price inflation than low-growth states, contradicting the ratepayer-burden claim.

6 dated tests · 0 resolved · next on

The tests More theses in Power, Energy & Grid

Who is on each side

The two sides.

Each side in DeepStack’s words, then the voices who argue it, attributed and paraphrased, dated where the date is known. A voice links to its page on DeepStack where one exists.

The case for yes

Load growth dilutes the cost of service

Large new loads absorb a share of fixed transmission and generation cost recovery, diluting per-unit cost allocation across more consumption. Residential price growth in high-load-growth states underperforms that in stagnant states, so the five fastest-growth states show lower average residential price growth than the five slowest.

The case for no

The case against it

15 years of stagnant utility-scale generation capacity followed by a 320 terawatt-hour surge in 4 years for AI buildout loads demand onto an inadequate grid, so residential electricity prices rise and keep rising in the states absorbing that load. Utility rate increases pass through to household bills at a time of strained real incomes, so state regulators face political pressure to limit cost allocation to hyperscalers, shifting costs onto IPPs and utilities that become easier regulatory pressure points. This side holds if the high-load-growth states show equal or faster residential price growth than the slow-growth states.

1 voice

Load growth dilutes the cost of service

  1. Moses Sternstein

    Higher demand allows utilities to distribute their large fixed infrastructure costs across a larger base of consumption, resulting in lower per-unit prices rather than the intuitive outcome of higher prices from higher demand.

    Source

5 voices

The case against it

  1. Tscsw

    Utility-scale generation moved only 231 TWh from 2007-2021, essentially flat. Then 320 TWh arrived 2021-2025, creating surge in demand. EIA forecasts electricity climbing from 17.3 cents/kWh in 2025 to 18.3c in 2026 and 18.7c in 2027. PJM capacity…

    Source

  2. JunkBondInvestor

    Hyperscaler power demand drives utility rates higher. These bills show up in household budgets when real incomes have not kept pace with inflation and energy is politically salient. State regulators, feeling faster pressure than federal ones…

    Source

  3. Michael Spencer

    The rapid deployment of AI datacenters creates surging power demand that strains US energy grids, pushing wholesale electricity costs sharply higher and accelerating consumer electricity price growth to roughly 61 percent faster than broader…

    Source

  4. Prof G Media

    Data centers consume massive amounts of electricity, raising costs for surrounding residents. When these costs become visible and attributable to a specific facility, grassroots opposition mobilizes. This opposition blocks projects and influences…

    Source

  5. Kevin Gee

    Massive simultaneous data center construction by major hyperscalers consumes huge amounts of electricity, and this demand surge collides with existing competition for materials and power from chip and green energy industrial policy, pushing up both…

    Source

What would settle it

The dated tests.

Each test names the public source that settles it, the rule and the day. The Call’s number, the readers’ median and the machines’ numbers stand beside it, as on the Docket.

  1. Vistra, purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 14%.

    On the Docket Pendingth080-t04Pre-specified

    Question
    Did the purchases of property and equipment of Vistra for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 14.0% of its revenue?
    Source
    SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Vistra (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)
    Rule
    Divide the purchases of property and equipment by the revenue that Vistra reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 14.0%; no if it is below 14.0%.
    If the source is late, revised or silent
    If Vistra has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.
    Base rate
    Vistra's purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue was 15.7% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.
    Outside view
    A year earlier, for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 18.4%, so the rungs sit on the last print.
    What would change the number
    A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading.

    The Call, before the dateExpects yes. Gives the yes answer 69%.

    69%

    0 · no100 · yes

    The machinesClaude 61% · DeepSeek 80%

    Claude: 61%DeepSeek: 80%
    The ladder 3 rungs on one reading, Nov 6, 2026: each asks whether it lands above its threshold, so the Call’s numbers down the rungs sketch where it expects the reading to land.

    1. Above 14%Call 69% · Claude 61% · DeepSeek 80%

      69%

    2. Above 16.5%Call 45% · Claude 33% · DeepSeek 10%

      45%

    3. Above 19%Call 22% · Claude 33% · DeepSeek 12%

      22%

    0 · no50100 · yes

    Your number

  2. Vistra, purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 16.5%.

    On the Docket Pendingth080-t05Pre-specified

    Question
    Did the purchases of property and equipment of Vistra for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 16.5% of its revenue?
    Source
    SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Vistra (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)
    Rule
    Divide the purchases of property and equipment by the revenue that Vistra reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 16.5%; no if it is below 16.5%.
    If the source is late, revised or silent
    If Vistra has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.
    Base rate
    Vistra's purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue was 15.7% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.
    Outside view
    A year earlier, for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 18.4%, so the rungs sit on the last print.
    What would change the number
    A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading.

    The Call, before the dateExpects no. Gives the yes answer 45%.

    45%

    0 · no100 · yes

    The machinesClaude 33% · DeepSeek 10%

    Claude: 33%DeepSeek: 10%

    Your number

  3. Vistra, purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 19%.

    On the Docket Pendingth080-t06Pre-specified

    Question
    Did the purchases of property and equipment of Vistra for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 19.0% of its revenue?
    Source
    SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Vistra (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)
    Rule
    Divide the purchases of property and equipment by the revenue that Vistra reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 19.0%; no if it is below 19.0%.
    If the source is late, revised or silent
    If Vistra has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.
    Base rate
    Vistra's purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue was 15.7% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.
    Outside view
    A year earlier, for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 18.4%, so the rungs sit on the last print.
    What would change the number
    A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading.

    The Call, before the dateExpects no. Gives the yes answer 22%.

    22%

    0 · no100 · yes

    The machinesClaude 33% · DeepSeek 12%

    Claude: 33%DeepSeek: 12%

    Your number

  4. Constellation Energy, purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 19%.

    On the Docket Pendingth080-t01Pre-specified

    Question
    Did the purchases of property and equipment of Constellation Energy for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 19.0% of its revenue?
    Source
    SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Constellation Energy (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)
    Rule
    Divide the purchases of property and equipment by the revenue that Constellation Energy reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 19.0%; no if it is below 19.0%.
    If the source is late, revised or silent
    If Constellation Energy has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.
    Base rate
    Constellation Energy's purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue was 21.3% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.
    Outside view
    A year earlier, for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 14.9%, so the rungs sit on the last print.
    What would change the number
    A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading.

    The Call, before the dateExpects yes. Gives the yes answer 72%.

    72%

    0 · no100 · yes

    The machinesClaude 60% · DeepSeek 55%

    Claude: 60%DeepSeek: 55%
    The ladder 3 rungs on one reading, Nov 9, 2026: each asks whether it lands above its threshold, so the Call’s numbers down the rungs sketch where it expects the reading to land.

    1. Above 19%Call 72% · Claude 60% · DeepSeek 55%

      72%

    2. Above 22%Call 48% · Claude 22% · DeepSeek 5%

      48%

    3. Above 26%Call 24% · Claude 27% · DeepSeek 7%

      24%

    0 · no50100 · yes

    Your number

  5. Constellation Energy, purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 22%.

    On the Docket Pendingth080-t02Pre-specified

    Question
    Did the purchases of property and equipment of Constellation Energy for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 22.0% of its revenue?
    Source
    SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Constellation Energy (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)
    Rule
    Divide the purchases of property and equipment by the revenue that Constellation Energy reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 22.0%; no if it is below 22.0%.
    If the source is late, revised or silent
    If Constellation Energy has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.
    Base rate
    Constellation Energy's purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue was 21.3% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.
    Outside view
    A year earlier, for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 14.9%, so the rungs sit on the last print.
    What would change the number
    A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading.

    The Call, before the dateEither answer fits the Call. Gives the yes answer 48%.

    48%

    0 · no100 · yes

    The machinesClaude 22% · DeepSeek 5%

    Claude: 22%DeepSeek: 5%

    Your number

  6. Constellation Energy, purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 26%.

    On the Docket Pendingth080-t03Pre-specified

    Question
    Did the purchases of property and equipment of Constellation Energy for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 26.0% of its revenue?
    Source
    SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Constellation Energy (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)
    Rule
    Divide the purchases of property and equipment by the revenue that Constellation Energy reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 26.0%; no if it is below 26.0%.
    If the source is late, revised or silent
    If Constellation Energy has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.
    Base rate
    Constellation Energy's purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue was 21.3% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.
    Outside view
    A year earlier, for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 14.9%, so the rungs sit on the last print.
    What would change the number
    A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading.

    The Call, before the dateExpects no. Gives the yes answer 24%.

    24%

    0 · no100 · yes

    The machinesClaude 27% · DeepSeek 7%

    Claude: 27%DeepSeek: 7%

    Your number

In The Buildout

The stories that take up this thesis, with their own Calls and tests.

A thesis page states one question and both sides of it; DeepStack takes no side in words, and its view is the number it gives each test before the date. Analysis and opinion, not investment advice. Voices are paraphrased from public writing and attributed by name; DeepStack shows no score, ranking or accuracy for any person. Pre-specified means the words were approved on or before the test’s date. Specified after the date means they were written afterwards: such a test is counted and shown, and never rated. An open question has no words yet. The Call’s number is the chance, from 0 to 100, that the Call gives the yes answer to a test’s question, recorded before the test’s date; it is DeepStack’s own reading, not a market price and not advice. The readers’ mark on the same line is the readers’ median, the middle of the numbers signed-in readers gave the test, shown from 25 readers. The machines: Each model read this page and nothing else. The number that counts is the latest one each model gave before the test closed.