Will the Fed funds target rate be higher right after the October 28, 2026 Fed meeting than right before it?
11 people · 11 claims3 sides3 machines
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The two sides
Growth: yields are catching up
Expects yields near a peak and a buying opportunity for bonds as the cycle behaves normally, pointing away from a hike.
Debt: 99% of GDP, up from 35%
Sees the Fed trapped: hiking feeds a near $1 trillion interest bill, cutting despite 3.4% inflation also costs it the long end.
Yes if the Fed funds target upper bound's first reading after October 28, 2026 is higher than its last before it, on FRED. FRED, Fed funds target, upper bound (DFEDTARU)
The exact question and the full rule
Does the Fed funds target, upper bound (FRED series DFEDTARU) read higher on its first observation after October 28, 2026 than on its last observation before it?
value after date > value before date => hike
If the source is late or silent: FRED dates a change at its effective date, so the first observation after the date is the reading; a reading not in yet waits for the next run. A series that is late, revised or silent is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.