FIN · T13

Why did the long end climb after the hike: growth, debt, or a missing buyer?

The rate rise did not tame long yields. The bill for AI’s capital binge is arriving through bonds, deficits and the investors now setting the price of duration.

Questions 2Open 1Call held 1Call missed 0

Growth: yields are catching up

3 voices

Debt: 99% of GDP, up from 35%

5 voices

The questions

Settles Oct 28open
Will the Fed funds target rate be higher right after the October 28, 2026 Fed meeting than right before it?
Settles Oct 15resolved
Treasury publishes August foreign holdings; renewed Japanese buying despite poor hedged returns would undercut the missing-buyer thesis behind the long-end selloff.

Read the Part Open in the reader

Why did the long end climb after the hike: growth, debt, or a missing buyer?

Growth: yields are catching up

Debt: 99% of GDP, up from 35%

The questions

Will the Fed funds target rate be higher right after the October 28, 2026 Fed meeting than right before it?

Treasury publishes August foreign holdings; renewed Japanese buying despite poor hedged returns would undercut the missing-buyer thesis behind the long-end selloff.