Treasury publishes August foreign holdings; renewed Japanese buying despite poor hedged returns would undercut the missing-buyer thesis behind the long-end selloff.
Did Japan's holdings of U.S. Treasury securities at the end of August 2026, in the Treasury International Capital table of major foreign holders published in mid-October, read higher than at the end of July 2026?
Compare Japan's August 2026 line with its July 2026 line in the same table. The answer is yes if the August figure is higher; no if it is equal or lower.
If the source is late or silent: A table published after November 30, 2026, or a July figure revised in the same table so that the comparison changes sign, is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.
If no
A missing buyer
a side
Growth: yields are catching up
Nosettled Oct 19
Japan's holdings of U.S. Treasury securities fell: $1,103.9B at end-July 2026, $1,068.3B at end-August 2026.
Canada's public pension funds are the third-largest pool of retirement savings in the world, and Canadian institutional managers are cooling on US investments: this past July Canadians sold $22 billion in US stocks, the biggest monthly sell-off…
Interest rate hikes are not currently a problem for the economy or investing, because if the economy and company profits grow faster than the interest rate, value is created, and the estimated Q3 GDP growth of 5.1% plus inflation gives nominal…
TSCS argues governments and central banks do not want long yields higher and will go a long way to stop it, which means that if they succeed real yields fall and today's 2.65% over inflation won't be on offer for long, and if the way they succeed…
Strongest against the CallDeepValue Capital · Sep 18
DeepValue Capital reads the September BofA Fund Manager Survey as showing investors overcrowded and bullish on semiconductors and tech while selling bonds, staples, REITs and telecoms, and attributes the selling to rising yields hurting…
What would change the Call
Long yields fall while nominal growth, inflation and AI capital spending stay firm.
Japanese and other foreign buyers return in size without a better hedge.
The Call · Part 07 · A missing buyer
The bond market is pricing the AI bill, not a recession. The Fed cannot hike its way to a lower 10-year.
The machines have not run this one yet; they run when the Call is recorded.
The Part
The Fed Hiked. The Long End Still Climbed.
The rate rise did not tame long yields. The bill for AI’s capital binge is arriving through bonds, deficits and the investors now setting the price of duration.