Did Nvidia, in its third-quarter fiscal 2027 results of November 18, 2026 (the earnings release, the 10-Q or the call), name OpenAI or Anthropic as a customer at 10% or more of revenue, or state the two labs' share of its revenue?
The answer is yes if the concentration note of the 10-Q, the release or the call names either lab as a direct or indirect customer at 10% or more of revenue, or states a share of revenue for the two labs together; no if the customers at 10% or more are described without naming either lab and no share for the labs is given. The figure is read against Eisman's September 21 count of roughly 70% of the hyperscalers' AI revenue coming from the two labs.
If the source is late or silent: A disclosure that names a lab only as an indirect end customer without a share is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing. A report delayed past December 15, 2026 is inconclusive.
If no
Open weights set the price
Expects cheaper open-weight models to take volume, diluting any single lab's share below a disclosable concentration threshold.
If yes
The frontier is still paid
Expects frontier labs' spending to stay concentrated and large enough that Nvidia would have to disclose their revenue share.
50%
NoYes
No position, no money. The crowd, the Call and the machines appear after you lock your number.
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— CallOct 11
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The trail · since Oct 9
the Call 15, recorded Oct 11machines 3 runsreaders show from 5
The case · 23 people · 2 minutes
Open weights set the price15 people argue noThe frontier is still paid8 people argue yes
Chinese AI models captured a majority share of 57% to 67% of total token usage on the OpenRouter developer platform by September 2026, eroding OpenAI's token marketshare even as OpenAI subsidizes its new cheaper GPT-6.1 Sol model.
Anthropic's expected ~$2 trillion IPO valuation is not justified by its numbers, given that it would need $1.2 trillion in annual revenue within 10 years (per Aswath Damodaran) to justify that valuation while the entire current AI products and…
Wyndo believes an always-on agent should run on the most capable model available, which is why they consider it fitting that ChatGPT's Dots runs on GPT-6 Astra.
Strongest against the CallMichael Spencer · Oct 1
Anthropic is far ahead of OpenAI pre-IPO, both in model quality and ARR, and that lead should only accelerate with IPO proceeds heading into its November IPO.
What would change the Call
Whether Nvidia's 10-Q, release or call names OpenAI or Anthropic as a 10 percent or greater customer or states their combined revenue share.
The Call · Part 12 · The filing sets the price
A frontier model no longer commands a price per token for long. The lab still does, and only a prospectus says what that price is worth.
3 models ran this one. Their numbers and reasons appear after you lock yours.
The Part
The Model Is Not the Price
A frontier model now lists at $4 per million input tokens, open and Chinese models carry most of the tokens on the platforms that count them, and the two labs' revenue is counted in the tens of billions. Investors agree the token is cheap. They differ on what the lab is paid for, and only a prospectus on EDGAR can settle it.