MODEL · T16
Does the frontier model still command a price?
A frontier model now lists at $4 per million input tokens, open and Chinese models carry most of the tokens on the platforms that count them, and the two labs' revenue is counted in the tens of billions. Investors agree the token is cheap. They differ on what the lab is paid for, and only a prospectus on EDGAR can settle it.
Questions 3Open 3Call held 0Call missed 0
The frontier is still paid
The dollars stay at the frontier: run-rates in the tens of billions, the hard work routed to closed models, distribution that outlives parity.
8 voices
Open weights set the price
Open weights months behind the frontier take the volume at a fraction of the token price; a price cut with tenfold usage reads as a price war.
8 voices
The questions
Settles Oct 28open
Will Alphabet's third-quarter 2026 results give a dollar size or share for TPU or Anthropic contracts in Google Cloud's backlog?
Settles Oct 29open
Will Amazon's third-quarter 2026 results name a customer at 10 percent or more of AWS revenue, or give Anthropic's AWS revenue share?
Settles Nov 18open
Will Nvidia name OpenAI or Anthropic as a 10 percent customer, or disclose their revenue share, by November 18, 2026?