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AI financing · Part 17 · settles Feb 16 · 116 days

Will Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle together report over 1.2 trillion dollars of leases signed but not yet started?

How it settles

Yes if the leases not yet commenced reported by these five companies in their fiscal 2026 filings sum above 1,200 billion dollars, read on SEC EDGAR. SEC EDGAR, lease notes of the Form 10-K for 2026 of Alphabet (CIK 1652044), Amazon (CIK 1018724) and Meta Platforms (CIK 1326801), and of the Form 10-Q of Microsoft (CIK 789019) for December 31, 2026 and Oracle (CIK 1341439) for November 30, 2026

The exact question and the full rule

Do the leases signed but not yet commenced that Alphabet, Amazon and Meta report as of December 31, 2026 in their Form 10-K for 2026, that Microsoft reports in its Form 10-Q for the quarter ended December 31, 2026, and that Oracle reports in its Form 10-Q for the quarter ended November 30, 2026, add up to more than $1.2 trillion?

Add, as printed and undiscounted, the amount each filing gives for leases that have not yet commenced: Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft at December 31, 2026, and Oracle at November 30, 2026. Alphabet's separately disclosed short-term lease is left out, as it was from the base of $1,118.5 billion at mid-2026. The answer is yes if the sum is above $1,200 billion; no if it is $1,200 billion or less.

If the source is late or silent: If any of the five filings is not public on EDGAR by February 16, 2027, or one of them gives no amount for leases not yet commenced, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; the next reading is February 26, 2027. A filing that gives the amount as approximate is read at the figure it states.

a side

The cash flows cover it

Expects growth to slow as leases begin and roll off this line while being serviced by the tenants' own cash businesses.

If yes

The lease is already debt

Expects the total to keep rising, since these signed commitments function as debt that has not yet hit the balance sheet.

50%
NoYes

No position, no money. The crowd, the Call and the machines appear after you lock your number.

The case · 18 people · 2 minutes
The cash flows cover it0 people argue nounsided14The lease is already debt4 people argue yes
Stronger if yes · 4 people

The lease is already debt

Michael BurrySep 24 · 2 claims

Meta's data center JV structure shows that the parties closest to the assets do not believe the value will hold: lenders would not bear residual value risk without protection, so Meta issued a residual value guarantee of up to $28 billion on…

A side · 7 people

The cash flows cover it

Weitz Investment Managementthe thesis · 2 claims

Microsoft is viewed as a great business with strong cash flows, intelligent capital allocation, and massive intellectual property that existed before the AI boom, and is believed to be reasonably priced with the financial strength to withstand…

A side · 7 people

The weak link pays first

Kris has always said that if one pin falls among the AI companies many others would follow; they mostly thought of OpenAI, but consider Oracle a weak link in the chain as well.

Strongest against the CallHaim Zaltzman · Sep 29

The presence of guarantees and credit support in the market means that clearing the market, particularly at this size and speed, probably requires it, just as wrappers, insurance or guarantees get car and airplane deals done faster and at better…

What would change the Call
  • New data center leases signed before period end, versus leases that commence and drop off this line, move the sum toward or away from 1.2 trillion.
The Call · Part 17

Leases pile up faster than they start, Alphabet's backstops cost more to carry, and Oracle's cash leans on its customers' prepayments.

The dossier · 5 minutes
The machines' reasons

3 models ran this one. Their numbers and reasons appear after you lock yours.

The Part

The Guarantee Has No Date

By mid-2026 the five largest builders of AI data centers had signed $1.12 trillion of leases not yet begun, by DeepStack's sum of their filings, 69% more than Moody's counted at the end of 2025. The leases reach the balance sheet on a schedule. The guarantees beside them have no date.

Chart: One obligation, five totals · Data Desk