FIN · T06
How much of the AI buildout is debt the balance sheets do not show yet, and who carries it if a tenant walks away?
By mid-2026 the five largest builders of AI data centers had signed $1.12 trillion of leases not yet begun, by DeepStack's sum of their filings, 69% more than Moody's counted at the end of 2025. The leases reach the balance sheet on a schedule. The guarantees beside them have no date.
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The lease is already debt
Signed leases and guarantees are debt today, kept off the books to spare the ratings, on buildings that have no sublease market.
4 voices
The cash flows cover it
The tenants' cash businesses service the debt; a lab failure hits equity, not bonds, and guarantees are how deals this size clear.
7 voices
The questions
Settles Feb 16open
Will Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle together report over 1.2 trillion dollars of leases signed but not yet started?
Settles Feb 16open
Will the liability on Alphabet's credit derivatives exceed 1.86 percent of their gross notional amount at year end 2026?
Settles Dec 14open
Will prepaid customer deposits top 40 percent of Oracle's operating cash flow in its next half year report?
Settles Feb 26open
Will Meta's 2026 10-K either consolidate the Hyperion joint venture or record a liability for its residual value guarantees?